Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Recent advancements have progressively incorporated frequency-based techniques into deep learning models, leading to notable improvements in accuracy and efficiency for time series analysis tasks. However, the Mid-Frequency Spectrum Gap in the real-world time series, where the energy is concentrated at the low-frequency region while the middle-frequency band is negligible, hinders the ability of existing deep learning models to extract the crucial frequency information. Additionally, the shared Key-Frequency in multivariate time series, where different time series share indistinguishable frequency patterns, is rarely exploited by existing literature. This work introduces a novel module, Adaptive Mid-Frequency Energy Optimizer, based on convolution and residual learning, to emphasize the significance of mid-frequency bands. We also propose an Energy-based Key-Frequency Picking Block to capture shared Key-Frequency, which achieves superior inter-series modeling performance with fewer parameters. A novel Key-Frequency Enhanced Training strategy is employed to further enhance Key-Frequency modeling, where spectral information from other channels is randomly introduced into each channel. Our approach advanced multivariate time series forecasting on the challenging Traffic, ECL, and Solar benchmarks, reducing MSE by 4%, 6%, and 5% compared to the previous SOTA iTransformer. Code is available at this GitHub Repository: https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/ReFocus.

Time series foundation models provide a universal solution for generating forecasts to support optimization problems in energy systems. Those foundation models are typically trained in a prediction-focused manner to maximize forecast quality. In contrast, decision-focused learning directly improves the resulting value of the forecast in downstream optimization rather than merely maximizing forecasting quality. The practical integration of forecast values into forecasting models is challenging, particularly when addressing complex applications with diverse instances, such as buildings. This becomes even more complicated when instances possess specific characteristics that require instance-specific, tailored predictions to increase the forecast value. To tackle this challenge, we use decision-focused fine-tuning within time series foundation models to offer a scalable and efficient solution for decision-focused learning applied to the dispatchable feeder optimization problem. To obtain more robust predictions for scarce building data, we use Moirai as a state-of-the-art foundation model, which offers robust and generalized results with few-shot parameter-efficient fine-tuning. Comparing the decision-focused fine-tuned Moirai with a state-of-the-art classical prediction-focused fine-tuning Morai, we observe an improvement of 9.45% in average total daily costs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the fact-checking studies. However, existing automated fact-checking evaluation methods rely on static datasets and classification metrics, which fail to automatically evaluate the justification production and uncover the nuanced limitations of LLMs in fact-checking. In this work, we introduce FACT-AUDIT, an agent-driven framework that adaptively and dynamically assesses LLMs' fact-checking capabilities. Leveraging importance sampling principles and multi-agent collaboration, FACT-AUDIT generates adaptive and scalable datasets, performs iterative model-centric evaluations, and updates assessments based on model-specific responses. By incorporating justification production alongside verdict prediction, this framework provides a comprehensive and evolving audit of LLMs' factual reasoning capabilities, to investigate their trustworthiness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FACT-AUDIT effectively differentiates among state-of-the-art LLMs, providing valuable insights into model strengths and limitations in model-centric fact-checking analysis.

Unveiling Biases while Embracing Sustainability: Assessing the Dual Challenges of Automatic Speech Recognition Systems Ajinkya Kulkarni 1, 2, Atharva Kulkarni 3, Miguel Couceiro 4, 5, Isabel Trancoso 5 1 IDIAP, Switzerland, 2 MBZUAI, UAE, 3 Erisha Labs, India 4 Universit e de Lorraine, CNRS, LORIA, Nancy, France 5 INESC-ID, IST, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal ajinkya.kulkarni@idiap.ch Abstract In this paper, we present a bias and sustainability focused investigation of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, namely Whisper and Massively Multilingual Speech (MMS), which have achieved state-of-the-art (SOT A) performances. Despite their improved performance in controlled settings, there remains a critical gap in understanding their efficacy and equity in real-world scenarios. In addition, we examine the environmental impact of ASR systems, scrutinizing the use of large acoustic models on carbon emission and energy consumption. We also provide insights into our empirical analyses, offering a valuable contribution to the claims surrounding bias and sustainability in ASR systems. Index T erms: ASR, Bias, carbon footprint, sustainability 1. Introduction The advent of large deep neural networks (DNNs) has brought about substantial advancements in various speech-processing applications, notably in speech recognition.

The discovery and optimization of high-energy materials (HEMs) are constrained by the prohibitive computational expense and prolonged development cycles inherent in conventional approaches. In this work, we develop a general neural network potential (NNP) that efficiently predicts the structural, mechanical, and decomposition properties of HEMs composed of C, H, N, and O. Our framework leverages pre-trained NNP models, fine-tuned using transfer learning on energy and force data derived from density functional theory (DFT) calculations. This strategy enables rapid adaptation across 20 different HEM systems while maintaining DFT-level accuracy, significantly reducing computational costs. A key aspect of this work is the ability of NNP model to capture the chemical activity space of HEMs, accurately describe the key atomic interactions and reaction mechanisms during thermal decomposition. The general NNP model has been applied in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and validated with experimental data for various HEM structures. Results show that the NNP model accurately predicts the structural, mechanical, and decomposition properties of HEMs by effectively describing their chemical activity space. Compared to traditional force fields, it offers superior DFT-level accuracy and generalization across both microscopic and macroscopic properties, reducing the computational and experimental costs. This work provides an efficient strategy for the design and development of HEMs and proposes a promising framework for integrating DFT, machine learning, and experimental methods in materials research. (To facilitate further research and practical applications, we open-source our NNP model on GitHub: https://github.com/MingjieWen/General-NNP-model-for-C-H-N-O-Energetic-Materials.)

In our quest for a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm that is both practical and provably optimal, we introduce EQO (Exploration via Quasi-Optimism). Unlike existing minimax optimal approaches, EQO avoids reliance on empirical variances and employs a simple bonus term proportional to the inverse of the state-action visit count. Central to EQO is the concept of quasi-optimism, where estimated values need not be fully optimistic, allowing for a simpler yet effective exploration strategy. The algorithm achieves the sharpest known regret bound for tabular RL under the mildest assumptions, proving that fast convergence can be attained with a practical and computationally efficient approach. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that EQO consistently outperforms existing algorithms in both regret performance and computational efficiency, providing the best of both theoretical soundness and practical effectiveness.

--Independent microgrids are crucial for supplying electricity by combining distributed energy resources and loads in scenarios like isolated islands and field combat. Fast and accurate assessments of microgrid vulnerability against intentional attacks or natural disasters are essential for effective risk prevention and design optimization. However, conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods are computationally expensive and time-consuming, while existing machine learning-based approaches often lack accuracy and explainability. T o address these challenges, this study proposes a fast and explainable vulnerability assessment framework that integrates MCS with a graph attention network enhanced by self-attention pooling (GA T -S). MCS generates training data, while the GA T - S model learns the structural and electrical characteristics of the microgrid and further assesses its vulnerability intelligently. The GA T -S improves explainability and computational efficiency by dynamically assigning attention weights to critical nodes. Comprehensive experimental evaluations across various micro-grid configurations demonstrate that the proposed framework provides accurate vulnerability assessments, achieving a mean squared error as low as 0.001, real-time responsiveness within 1 second, and delivering explainable results. An independent microgrid, like a battlefield or island mi-crogrid, operates separately from the main grid, supplying electricity to a localized area by integrating distributed energy resources and loads via interconnected buses, transformers, and lines. Assessing the vulnerability of independent micro-grids is essential to ensure its normal power supply capacity against disruptions, particularly in scenarios like deliberate attacks and natural disasters. Chenhui Lin is with the State Key Laboratory of Power Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

A BSTRACT In this paper, we aim to build an adversarially robust zero-shot image classifier. We ground our work on CLIP, a vision-language pre-trained encoder model that can perform zero-shot classification by matching an image with text prompts "a photo of a < class-name> .". Purification is the path we choose since it does not require adversarial training on specific attack types and thus can cope with any foreseen attacks. We then formulate purification risk as the KL divergence between the joint distributions of the purification process of denoising the adversarial samples and the attack process of adding perturbations to benign samples, through bidirectional Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). The final derived results inspire us to explore purification in the multi-modal latent space of CLIP . We propose two variants for our CLIPure approach: CLIPure-Diff which models the likelihood of images' latent vectors with the DiffusionPrior module in DaLLE-2 (modeling the generation process of CLIP's latent vectors), and CLIPure-Cos which models the likelihood with the cosine similarity between the embeddings of an image and "a photo of a.". As far as we know, CLIPure is the first purification method in multi-modal latent space and CLIPure-Cos is the first purification method that is not based on generative models, which substantially improves defense efficiency. We conducted extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, ImageNet, and 13 datasets that previous CLIP-based defense methods used for evaluating zero-shot classification robustness. Among them, CLIP (Radford et al., 2021) is an example that is popular, effective, and efficient. CLIP performs zero-shot classification by forming text prompts "a photo of a < class-name> ." of all the candidate categories, and selecting the class with the highest similarity with the image embedding. Despite its efficacy, when facing adversarial attacks, its accuracy can drop to zero, similarly vulnerable to other neural classifiers. Existing methods to enhance adversarial robustness follow two primary paths: adversarial training and purification. Adversarial Training (A T) (Madry et al., 2017; Rebuffi et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2023) incorporates adversarial examples into model training to boost robustness. It often achieves corresponding authors 1 arXiv:2502.18176v2 FARE (Schlarmann et al., 2024) and TeCoA (Mao et al., 2022) are two A T approaches integrated with CLIP, which enhance CLIP's zero-shot classification robustness while harming clean accuracy significantly and do not generalize to other types of attacks.

The rise of foundation models has revolutionized natural language processing and computer vision, yet their best practices to time series forecasting remains underexplored. Existing time series foundation models often adopt methodologies from these fields without addressing the unique characteristics of time series data. In this paper, we identify two key challenges in cross-domain time series forecasting: the complexity of temporal patterns and semantic misalignment. To tackle these issues, we propose the ``Unify and Anchor" transfer paradigm, which disentangles frequency components for a unified perspective and incorporates external context as domain anchors for guided adaptation. Based on this framework, we introduce ContexTST, a Transformer-based model that employs a time series coordinator for structured representation and the Transformer blocks with a context-informed mixture-of-experts mechanism for effective cross-domain generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ContexTST advances state-of-the-art forecasting performance while achieving strong zero-shot transferability across diverse domains.