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 Energy


ML-Based Bidding Price Prediction for Pay-As-Bid Ancillary Services Markets: A Use Case in the German Control Reserve Market

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources has led to greater volatility and unpredictability in electricity generation, posing challenges to grid stability. Ancillary service markets, such as the German control reserve market, allow industrial consumers and producers to offer flexibility in their power consumption or generation, contributing to grid stability while earning additional income. However, many participants use simple bidding strategies that may not maximize their revenues. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting bidding prices in pay-as-bid ancillary service markets, focusing on the German control reserve market. We evaluate various machine learning models, including Support Vector Regression, Decision Trees, and k-Nearest Neighbors, and compare their performance against benchmark models. To address the asymmetry in the revenue function of pay-as-bid markets, we introduce an offset adjustment technique that enhances the practical applicability of the forecasting models. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed approach improves potential revenues by 27.43 % to 37.31 % compared to baseline models. When analyzing the relationship between the model forecasting errors and the revenue, a negative correlation is measured for three markets; according to the results, a reduction of 1 EUR/MW model price forecasting error (MAE) statistically leads to a yearly revenue increase between 483 EUR/MW and 3,631 EUR/MW. The proposed methodology enables industrial participants to optimize their bidding strategies, leading to increased earnings and contributing to the efficiency and stability of the electrical grid.


AI-driven weather prediction breakthrough reported

The Guardian

A single researcher with a desktop computer will be able to deliver accurate weather forecasts using a new AI weather prediction approach that is tens of times faster and uses thousands of times less computing power than conventional systems. Weather forecasts are currently generated through a complex set of stages, each taking several hours to run on bespoke supercomputers, requiring large teams of experts to develop, maintain and deploy them. Aardvark Weather provides a blueprint to replace the entire process by training an AI on raw data from weather stations, satellites, weather balloons, ships and planes from around the world to enable it to make predictions. This offers the potential for vast improvements in forecast speed, accuracy and cost, according to research published on Thursday in Nature from the University of Cambridge, the Alan Turing Institute, Microsoft Research and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Richard Turner, a professor of machine learning at the University of Cambridge, said the approach could be used to quickly provide bespoke forecasts for specific industries or locations, for example predicting temperatures for African agriculture or wind speeds for a renewable energy company in Europe.


The Download: the future of energy, and chatting about chatbots

MIT Technology Review

Where can you find lasers, electric guitars, and racks full of novel batteries, all in the same giant room? This week, the answer was the 2025 ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit just outside Washington, DC. Energy innovation can take many forms, and the variety in energy research was on display at the summit. ARPA-E, part of the US Department of Energy, provides funding for high-risk, high-reward research projects. The summit gathers projects the agency has funded, along with investors, policymakers, and journalists.


Enhancing the Scalability and Applicability of Kohn-Sham Hamiltonians for Molecular Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Density Functional Theory (DFT) is a pivotal method within quantum chemistry and materials science, with its core involving the construction and solution of the Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian. Despite its importance, the application of DFT is frequently limited by the substantial computational resources required to construct the Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian. In response to these limitations, current research has employed deep-learning models to efficiently predict molecular and solid Hamiltonians, with roto-translational symmetries encoded in their neural networks. However, the scalability of prior models may be problematic when applied to large molecules, resulting in non-physical predictions of ground-state properties. In this study, we generate a substantially larger training set (PubChemQH) than used previously and use it to create a scalable model for DFT calculations with physical accuracy. For our model, we introduce a loss function derived from physical principles, which we call Wavefunction Alignment Loss (WALoss). WALoss involves performing a basis change on the predicted Hamiltonian to align it with the observed one; thus, the resulting differences can serve as a surrogate for orbital energy differences, allowing models to make better predictions for molecular orbitals and total energies than previously possible. WALoss also substantially accelerates self-consistent-field (SCF) DFT calculations. Here, we show it achieves a reduction in total energy prediction error by a factor of 1347 and an SCF calculation speed-up by a factor of 18%. These substantial improvements set new benchmarks for achieving accurate and applicable predictions in larger molecular systems.


Fourier Neural Operator based surrogates for $CO_2$ storage in realistic geologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study aims to develop surrogate models for accelerating decision making processes associated with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Selection of sub-surface $CO_2$ storage sites often necessitates expensive and involved simulations of $CO_2$ flow fields. Here, we develop a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) based model for real-time, high-resolution simulation of $CO_2$ plume migration. The model is trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from realistic subsurface parameters and offers $O(10^5)$ computational acceleration with minimal sacrifice in prediction accuracy. We also explore super-resolution experiments to improve the computational cost of training the FNO based models. Additionally, we present various strategies for improving the reliability of predictions from the model, which is crucial while assessing actual geological sites. This novel framework, based on NVIDIA's Modulus library, will allow rapid screening of sites for CCS. The discussed workflows and strategies can be applied to other energy solutions like geothermal reservoir modeling and hydrogen storage. Our work scales scientific machine learning models to realistic 3D systems that are more consistent with real-life subsurface aquifers/reservoirs, paving the way for next-generation digital twins for subsurface CCS applications.


Development of a Magnetorheological Hand Exoskeleton Featuring High Force-to-power Ratio for Enhancing Grip Endurance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hand exoskeletons have significant potential in labor-intensive fields by mitigating hand grip fatigue, enhancing hand strength, and preventing injuries.However, most traditional hand exoskeletons are driven by motors whose output force is limited under constrained installation conditions. In addition, they also come with the disadvantages of high power consumption, complex and bulky assistive systems, and high instability.In this work, we develop a novel hand exoskeleton integrated with magnetorheological (MR) clutches that offers a high force-to-power ratio to improve grip endurance. The clutch features an enhanced structure design, a micro roller enhancing structure, which can significantly boost output forces. The experimental data demonstrate that the clutch can deliver a peak holding force of 380 N with a consumption of 1.48 W, yielding a force-to-power ratio of 256.75N/W, which is 2.35 times higher than the best reported actuator used for hand exoskeletons. The designed MR hand exoskeleton is highly integrated and comprises an exoskeleton frame, MR clutches, a control unit, and a battery. Evaluations through static grip endurance tests and dynamic carrying and lifting tests confirm that the MR hand exoskeleton can effectively reduce muscle fatigue, extend grip endurance, and minimize injuries. These findings highlight its strong potential for practical applications in repetitive tasks such as carrying and lifting in industrial settings.


Beyond the Visible: Multispectral Vision-Language Learning for Earth Observation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vision-language models for Earth observation (EO) typically rely on the visual spectrum of data as the only model input, thus failing to leverage the rich spectral information available in the multispectral channels recorded by satellites. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce Llama3-MS-CLIP, the first vision-language model pre-trained with contrastive learning on a large-scale multispectral dataset and report on the performance gains due to the extended spectral range. Furthermore, we present the largest-to-date image-caption dataset for multispectral data, consisting of one million Sentinel-2 samples and corresponding textual descriptions generated with Llama3-LLaVA-Next and Overture Maps data. We develop a scalable captioning pipeline, which is validated by domain experts. We evaluate Llama3-MS-CLIP on multispectral zero-shot image classification and retrieval using three datasets of varying complexity. Our results demonstrate that Llama3-MS-CLIP significantly outperforms other RGB-based approaches, improving classification accuracy by 6.77% on average and retrieval performance by 4.63% mAP compared to the second-best model. Our results emphasize the relevance of multispectral vision-language learning. We release the image-caption dataset, code, and model weights under an open-source license.


NeuralFoil: An Airfoil Aerodynamics Analysis Tool Using Physics-Informed Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In conceptual aircraft design, the problem of shaping a typical wing is usually decomposed into two parts: planform design and airfoil design. The latter, which is the focus of this work, is a multidisciplinary design problem that requires consideration of a variety of aerodynamic, structural, and manufacturing objectives and constraints. A non-exhaustive list of major considerations could include: Profile drag across the expected operating range of the airfoil (spanning lift coefficients, Reynolds numbers, and Mach numbers), including adequate off-design performance [1]; Pitching moment and aft-camber coefficients, which can drive tail sizing (modifying trim drag), affect divergence speed; Hinge moments and control effectiveness of any control surfaces, which drive actuator design and weight; Stall behavior, which can affect handling qualities and safety; Thickness at various points, in order to accommodate fuel volume and required structural members to resist failure (e.g., by bending, buckling, divergence, flutter, or control reversal);[2] Sensitivity to boundary layer performance, freestream turbulence, and trips, all of which impose constraints on surface finish, cleanliness, and manufacturing tolerances [3-5]; Peak suction pressures, which affect the critical Mach number in transonic applications or cavitation in hydrodynamic applications; Shock stability and buffet considerations in transonic applications; Manufacturability, which might include flat-bottom airfoil sections, strictly-convex airfoil shapes (e.g., to


A Schwarz-Christoffel Mapping-based Framework for Sim-to-Real Transfer in Autonomous Robot Operations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the remarkable acceleration of robotic development through advanced simulation technology, robotic applications are often subject to performance reductions in real-world deployment due to the inherent discrepancy between simulation and reality, often referred to as the "sim-to-real gap". This gap arises from factors like model inaccuracies, environmental variations, and unexpected disturbances. Similarly, model discrepancies caused by system degradation over time or minor changes in the system's configuration also hinder the effectiveness of the developed methodologies. Effectively closing these gaps is critical and remains an open challenge. This work proposes a lightweight conformal mapping framework to transfer control and planning policies from an expert teacher to a degraded less capable learner. The method leverages Schwarz-Christoffel Mapping (SCM) to geometrically map teacher control inputs into the learner's command space, ensuring maneuver consistency. To demonstrate its generality, the framework is applied to two representative types of control and planning methods in a path-tracking task: 1) a discretized motion primitives command transfer and 2) a continuous Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based command transfer. The proposed framework is validated through extensive simulations and real-world experiments, demonstrating its effectiveness in reducing the sim-to-real gap by closely transferring teacher commands to the learner robot.


A preliminary data fusion study to assess the feasibility of Foundation Process-Property Models in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models are at the forefront of an increasing number of critical applications. In regards to technologies such as additive manufacturing (AM), these models have the potential to dramatically accelerate process optimization and, in turn, design of next generation materials. A major challenge that impedes the construction of foundation process-property models is data scarcity. To understand the impact of this challenge, and since foundation models rely on data fusion, in this work we conduct controlled experiments where we focus on the transferability of information across different material systems and properties. More specifically, we generate experimental datasets from 17-4 PH and 316L stainless steels (SSs) in Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) where we measure the effect of five process parameters on porosity and hardness. We then leverage Gaussian processes (GPs) for process-property modeling in various configurations to test if knowledge about one material system or property can be leveraged to build more accurate machine learning models for other material systems or properties. Through extensive cross-validation studies and probing the GPs' interpretable hyperparameters, we study the intricate relation among data size and dimensionality, complexity of the process-property relations, noise, and characteristics of machine learning models. Our findings highlight the need for structured learning approaches that incorporate domain knowledge in building foundation process-property models rather than relying on uninformed data fusion in data-limited applications.