Energy
An adaptive data sampling strategy for stabilizing dynamical systems via controller inference
Werner, Steffen W. R., Peherstorfer, Benjamin
Learning stabilizing controllers from data is an important task in engineering applications; however, collecting informative data is challenging because unstable systems often lead to rapidly growing or erratic trajectories. In this work, we propose an adaptive sampling scheme that generates data while simultaneously stabilizing the system to avoid instabilities during the data collection. Under mild assumptions, the approach provably generates data sets that are informative for stabilization and have minimal size. The numerical experiments demonstrate that controller inference with the novel adaptive sampling approach learns controllers with up to one order of magnitude fewer data samples than unguided data generation. The results show that the proposed approach opens the door to stabilizing systems in edge cases and limit states where instabilities often occur and data collection is inherently difficult.
Systematic Hazard Analysis for Frontier AI using STPA
All of the frontier AI companies have published safety frameworks where they define capability thresholds and risk mitigations that determine how they will safely develop and deploy their models. Adoption of systematic approaches to risk modelling, based on established practices used in safety-critical industries, has been recommended, however frontier AI companies currently do not describe in detail any structured approach to identifying and analysing hazards. STPA (Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis) is a systematic methodology for identifying how complex systems can become unsafe, leading to hazards. It achieves this by mapping out controllers and controlled processes then analysing their interactions and feedback loops to understand how harmful outcomes could occur (Leveson & Thomas, 2018). We evaluate STPA's ability to broaden the scope, improve traceability and strengthen the robustness of safety assurance for frontier AI systems. Applying STPA to the threat model and scenario described in 'A Sketch of an AI Control Safety Case' (Korbak et al., 2025), we derive a list of Unsafe Control Actions. From these we select a subset and explore the Loss Scenarios that lead to them if left unmitigated. We find that STPA is able to identify causal factors that may be missed by unstructured hazard analysis methodologies thereby improving robustness. We suggest STPA could increase the safety assurance of frontier AI when used to complement or check coverage of existing AI governance techniques including capability thresholds, model evaluations and emergency procedures. The application of a systematic methodology supports scalability by increasing the proportion of the analysis that could be conducted by LLMs, reducing the burden on human domain experts.
Bidirectional Soft Actor-Critic: Leveraging Forward and Reverse KL Divergence for Efficient Reinforcement Learning
Zhang, Yixian, Tang, Huaze, Wei, Changxu, Ding, Wenbo
The Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm, a state-of-the-art method in maximum entropy reinforcement learning, traditionally relies on minimizing reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for policy updates. However, this approach leads to an intractable optimal projection policy, necessitating gradient-based approximations that can suffer from instability and poor sample efficiency. This paper investigates the alternative use of forward KL divergence within SAC. We demonstrate that for Gaussian policies, forward KL divergence yields an explicit optimal projection policy -- corresponding to the mean and variance of the target Boltzmann distribution's action marginals. Building on the distinct advantages of both KL directions, we propose Bidirectional SAC, an algorithm that first initializes the policy using the explicit forward KL projection and then refines it by optimizing the reverse KL divergence. Comprehensive experiments on continuous control benchmarks show that Bidirectional SAC significantly outperforms standard SAC and other baselines, achieving up to a $30\%$ increase in episodic rewards, alongside enhanced sample efficiency.
Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations
Koyuncu, Batuhan, DeVries, Rachael, Winther, Ole, Valera, Isabel
We introduce Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations (TV-INRs), a probabilistic framework for modeling irregular multivariate time series that enables efficient individualized imputation and forecasting. By integrating implicit neural representations with latent variable models, TV-INRs learn distributions over time-continuous generator functions conditioned on signal-specific covariates. Unlike existing approaches that require extensive training, fine-tuning or meta-learning, our method achieves accurate individualized predictions through a single forward pass. Our experiments demonstrate that with a single TV-INRs instance, we can accurately solve diverse imputation and forecasting tasks, offering a computationally efficient and scalable solution for real-world applications. TV-INRs excel especially in low-data regimes, where it outperforms existing methods by an order of magnitude in mean squared error for imputation task.
Unraveling Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models via the Pipeline Lens: A Comprehensive Review
Fang, Yuchen, Miao, Hao, Liang, Yuxuan, Deng, Liwei, Cui, Yue, Zeng, Ximu, Xia, Yuyang, Zhao, Yan, Pedersen, Torben Bach, Jensen, Christian S., Zhou, Xiaofang, Zheng, Kai
Spatio-temporal deep learning models aims to utilize useful patterns in such data to support tasks like prediction. However, previous deep learning models designed for specific tasks typically require separate training for each use case, leading to increased computational and storage costs. To address this issue, spatio-temporal foundation models have emerged, offering a unified framework capable of solving multiple spatio-temporal tasks. These foundation models achieve remarkable success by learning general knowledge with spatio-temporal data or transferring the general capabilities of pre-trained language models. While previous surveys have explored spatio-temporal data and methodologies separately, they have ignored a comprehensive examination of how foundation models are designed, selected, pre-trained, and adapted. As a result, the overall pipeline for spatio-temporal foundation models remains unclear. To bridge this gap, we innovatively provide an up-to-date review of previous spatio-temporal foundation models from the pipeline perspective. The pipeline begins with an introduction to different types of spatio-temporal data, followed by details of data preprocessing and embedding techniques. The pipeline then presents a novel data property taxonomy to divide existing methods according to data sources and dependencies, providing efficient and effective model design and selection for researchers. On this basis, we further illustrate the training objectives of primitive models, as well as the adaptation techniques of transferred models. Overall, our survey provides a clear and structured pipeline to understand the connection between core elements of spatio-temporal foundation models while guiding researchers to get started quickly. Additionally, we introduce emerging opportunities such as multi-objective training in the field of spatio-temporal foundation models.
Energy Considerations for Large Pretrained Neural Networks
Increasingly complex neural network architectures have achieved phenomenal performance. However, these complex models require massive computational resources that consume substantial amounts of electricity, which highlights the potential environmental impact of such models. Previous studies have demonstrated that substantial redundancies exist in large pre-trained models. However, previous work has primarily focused on compressing models while retaining comparable model performance, and the direct impact on electricity consumption appears to have received relatively little attention. By quantifying the energy usage associated with both uncompressed and compressed models, we investigate compression as a means of reducing electricity consumption. We consider nine different pre-trained models, ranging in size from 8M parameters to 138M parameters. To establish a baseline, we first train each model without compression and record the electricity usage and time required during training, along with other relevant statistics. We then apply three compression techniques: Steganographic capacity reduction, pruning, and low-rank factorization. In each of the resulting cases, we again measure the electricity usage, training time, model accuracy, and so on. We find that pruning and low-rank factorization offer no significant improvements with respect to energy usage or other related statistics, while steganographic capacity reduction provides major benefits in almost every case. We discuss the significance of these findings.
A Dynamic Stiefel Graph Neural Network for Efficient Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting
Spatio-temporal time series (STTS) have been widely used in many applications. However, accurately forecasting STTS is challenging due to complex dynamic correlations in both time and space dimensions. Existing graph neural networks struggle to balance effectiveness and efficiency in modeling dynamic spatio-temporal relations. To address this problem, we propose the Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Stiefel Graph Neural Network (DST -SGNN) to efficiently process STTS. For DST -SGNN, we first introduce the novel Stiefel Graph Spectral Convolution (SGSC) and Stiefel Graph Fourier Transform (SGFT). The SGFT matrix in SGSC is constrained to lie on the Stiefel manifold, and SGSC can be regarded as a filtered graph spectral convolution. We also propose the Linear Dynamic Graph Optimization on Stiefel Manifold (LDGOSM), which can efficiently learn the SGFT matrix from the dynamic graph and significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, we propose a multi-layer SGSC (MSGSC) that efficiently captures complex spatiotemporal correlations. Extensive experiments on seven spatio-temporal datasets show that DST - SGNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods while maintaining relatively low computational costs.
Beyond Attention: Learning Spatio-Temporal Dynamics with Emergent Interpretable Topologies
Alisetti, Sai Vamsi, Kalagi, Vikas, Krishnagopal, Sanjukta
Spatio-temporal forecasting is critical in applications such as traffic prediction, energy demand modeling, and weather monitoring. While Graph Attention Networks (GATs) are popular for modeling spatial dependencies, they rely on predefined adjacency structures and dynamic attention scores, introducing inductive biases and computational overhead that can obscure interpretability. We propose InterGAT, a simplified alternative to GAT that replaces masked attention with a fully learnable, symmetric node interaction matrix, capturing latent spatial relationships without relying on fixed graph topologies. Our framework, InterGAT-GRU, which incorporates a GRU-based temporal decoder, outperforms the baseline GAT-GRU in forecasting accuracy, achieving at least a 21% improvement on the SZ-Taxi dataset and a 6% improvement on the Los-Loop dataset across all forecasting horizons (15 to 60 minutes). Additionally, we observed reduction in training time by 60-70% compared to GAT-GRU baseline. Crucially, the learned interaction matrix reveals interpretable structure: it recovers sparse, topology-aware attention patterns that align with community structure. Spectral and clustering analyses show that the model captures both localized and global dynamics, offering insights into the functional topology driving predictions. This highlights how structure learning can simultaneously support prediction, computational efficiency, and topological interpretabil-ity in dynamic graph-based domains.
HouseTS: A Large-Scale, Multimodal Spatiotemporal U.S. Housing Dataset
Wang, Shengkun, Sun, Yanshen, Chen, Fanglan, Wang, Linhan, Ramakrishnan, Naren, Lu, Chang-Tien, Chen, Yinlin
Accurate house-price forecasting is essential for investors, planners, and researchers. However, reproducible benchmarks with sufficient spatiotemporal depth and contextual richness for long horizon prediction remain scarce. To address this, we introduce HouseTS a large scale, multimodal dataset covering monthly house prices from March 2012 to December 2023 across 6,000 ZIP codes in 30 major U.S. metropolitan areas. The dataset includes over 890K records, enriched with points of Interest (POI), socioeconomic indicators, and detailed real estate metrics. To establish standardized performance baselines, we evaluate 14 models, spanning classical statistical approaches, deep neural networks (DNNs), and pretrained time-series foundation models. We further demonstrate the value of HouseTS in a multimodal case study, where a vision language model extracts structured textual descriptions of geographic change from time stamped satellite imagery. This enables interpretable, grounded insights into urban evolution. HouseTS is hosted on Kaggle, while all preprocessing pipelines, benchmark code, and documentation are openly maintained on GitHub to ensure full reproducibility and easy adoption.
A Foundation Model for Non-Destructive Defect Identification from Vibrational Spectra
Cheng, Mouyang, Fu, Chu-Liang, Yu, Bowen, Rha, Eunbi, Chotrattanapituk, Abhijatmedhi, Abernathy, Douglas L, Cheng, Yongqiang, Li, Mingda
Defects are ubiquitous in solids and strongly influence materials' mechanical and functional properties. However, non-destructive characterization and quantification of defects, especially when multiple types coexist, remain a long-standing challenge. Here we introduce DefectNet, a foundation machine learning model that predicts the chemical identity and concentration of substitutional point defects with multiple coexisting elements directly from vibrational spectra, specifically phonon density-of-states (PDoS). Trained on over 16,000 simulated spectra from 2,000 semiconductors, DefectNet employs a tailored attention mechanism to identify up to six distinct defect elements at concentrations ranging from 0.2% to 25%. The model generalizes well to unseen crystals across 56 elements and can be fine-tuned on experimental data. Validation using inelastic scattering measurements of SiGe alloys and MgB$_2$ superconductor demonstrates its accuracy and transferability. Our work establishes vibrational spectroscopy as a viable, non-destructive probe for point defect quantification in bulk materials, and highlights the promise of foundation models in data-driven defect engineering.