Energy
A Visualization Framework for Exploring Multi-Agent-Based Simulations Case Study of an Electric Vehicle Home Charging Ecosystem
Christensen, Kristoffer, Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard, Ma, Zheng Grace
Multi-agent-based simulations (MABS) of electric vehicle (EV) home charging ecosystems generate large, complex, and stochastic time-series datasets that capture interactions between households, grid infrastructure, and energy markets. These interactions can lead to unexpected system-level events, such as transformer overloads or consumer dissatisfaction, that are difficult to detect and explain through static post-processing. This paper presents a modular, Python-based dashboard framework, built using Dash by Plotly, that enables efficient, multi-level exploration and root-cause analysis of emergent behavior in MABS outputs. The system features three coordinated views (System Overview, System Analysis, and Consumer Analysis), each offering high-resolution visualizations such as time-series plots, spatial heatmaps, and agent-specific drill-down tools. A case study simulating full EV adoption with smart charging in a Danish residential network demonstrates how the dashboard supports rapid identification and contextual explanation of anomalies, including clustered transformer overloads and time-dependent charging failures. The framework facilitates actionable insight generation for researchers and distribution system operators, and its architecture is adaptable to other distributed energy resources and complex energy systems.
Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Cachay, Salva Rühling, Aittala, Miika, Kreis, Karsten, Brenowitz, Noah, Vahdat, Arash, Mardani, Morteza, Yu, Rose
Diffusion models are a powerful tool for probabilistic forecasting, yet most applications in high-dimensional chaotic systems predict future snapshots one-by-one. This common approach struggles to model complex temporal dependencies and fails to explicitly account for the progressive growth of uncertainty inherent to such systems. While rolling diffusion frameworks, which apply increasing noise to forecasts at longer lead times, have been proposed to address this, their integration with state-of-the-art, high-fidelity diffusion techniques remains a significant challenge. We tackle this problem by introducing Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models (ERDM), the first framework to successfully unify a rolling forecast structure with the principled, performant design of Elucidated Diffusion Models (EDM). To do this, we adapt the core EDM components-its noise schedule, network preconditioning, and Heun sampler-to the rolling forecast setting. The success of this integration is driven by three key contributions: (i) a novel loss weighting scheme that focuses model capacity on the mid-range forecast horizons where determinism gives way to stochasticity; (ii) an efficient initialization strategy using a pre-trained EDM for the initial window; and (iii) a bespoke hybrid sequence architecture for robust spatiotemporal feature extraction under progressive denoising. On 2D Navier-Stokes simulations and ERA5 global weather forecasting at 1.5^\circ resolution, ERDM consistently outperforms key diffusion-based baselines, including conditional autoregressive EDM. ERDM offers a flexible and powerful general framework for tackling diffusion-based sequence generation problems where modeling escalating uncertainty is paramount. Code is available at: https://github.com/salvaRC/erdm
Scalable Machine Learning Algorithms using Path Signatures
The interface between stochastic analysis and machine learning is a rapidly evolving field, with path signatures - iterated integrals that provide faithful, hierarchical representations of paths - offering a principled and universal feature map for sequential and structured data. Rooted in rough path theory, path signatures are invariant to reparameterization and well-suited for modelling evolving dynamics, long-range dependencies, and irregular sampling - common challenges in real-world time series and graph data. This thesis investigates how to harness the expressive power of path signatures within scalable machine learning pipelines. It introduces a suite of models that combine theoretical robustness with computational efficiency, bridging rough path theory with probabilistic modelling, deep learning, and kernel methods. Key contributions include: Gaussian processes with signature kernel-based covariance functions for uncertainty-aware time series modelling; the Seq2Tens framework, which employs low-rank tensor structure in the weight space for scalable deep modelling of long-range dependencies; and graph-based models where expected signatures over graphs induce hypo-elliptic diffusion processes, offering expressive yet tractable alternatives to standard graph neural networks. Further developments include Random Fourier Signature Features, a scalable kernel approximation with theoretical guarantees, and Recurrent Sparse Spectrum Signature Gaussian Processes, which combine Gaussian processes, signature kernels, and random features with a principled forgetting mechanism for multi-horizon time series forecasting with adaptive context length. We hope this thesis serves as both a methodological toolkit and a conceptual bridge, and provides a useful reference for the current state of the art in scalable, signature-based learning for sequential and structured data.
Explaining deep neural network models for electricity price forecasting with XAI
Pesenti, Antoine, OSullivan, Aidan
Electricity markets are highly complex, involving lots of interactions and complex dependencies that make it hard to understand the inner workings of the market and what is driving prices. Econometric methods have been developed for this, white-box models, however, they are not as powerful as deep neural network models (DNN). In this paper, we use a DNN to forecast the price and then use XAI methods to understand the factors driving the price dynamics in the market. The objective is to increase our understanding of how different electricity markets work. To do that, we apply explainable methods such as SHAP and Gradient, combined with visual techniques like heatmaps (saliency maps) to analyse the behaviour and contributions of various features across five electricity markets. We introduce the novel concepts of SSHAP values and SSHAP lines to enhance the complex representation of high-dimensional tabular models.
ARChemist: Autonomous Robotic Chemistry System Architecture
Fakhruldeen, Hatem, Pizzuto, Gabriella, Glowacki, Jakub, Cooper, Andrew Ian
-- Automated laboratory experiments have the potential to propel new discoveries, while increasing reproducibility and improving scientists' safety when handling dangerous materials. However, many automated laboratory workflows have not fully leveraged the remarkable advancements in robotics and digital lab equipment. As a result, most robotic systems used in the labs are programmed specifically for a single experiment, often relying on proprietary architectures or using unconventional hardware. In this work, we tackle this problem by proposing a novel robotic system architecture specifically designed with and for chemists, which allows the scientist to easily reconfigure their setup for new experiments. Specifically, the system's strength is its ability to combine together heterogeneous robotic platforms with standard laboratory equipment to create different experimental setups. Finally, we show how the architecture can be used for specific laboratory experiments through case studies such as solubility screening and crystallisation. I. INTRODUCTION Accelerating the discovery of new materials is important for industrial applications such as healthcare and energy production. This can be achieved through running long-term experiments autonomously, for example by increasing the use of robotic platforms in laboratories. In practice, this would accumulate more experiments in less time, and potentially minimise the scientists' exposure to harmful chemicals, reducing their repetitive tasks.
Task Allocation of UAVs for Monitoring Missions via Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation and Experimental Validation
Chakraa, Hamza, Guérin, François, Leclercq, Edouard, Lefebvre, Dimitri
This study addresses the optimisation of task allocation for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) within industrial monitoring missions. The proposed methodology integrates a Genetic Algorithms (GA) with a 2-Opt local search technique to obtain a high-quality solution. Our approach was experimentally validated in an industrial zone to demonstrate its efficacy in real-world scenarios. Also, a Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulator for the UAVs team is introduced. Moreover, insights about the correlation between the theoretical cost function and the actual battery consumption and time of flight are deeply analysed. Results show that the considered costs for the optimisation part of the problem closely correlate with real-world data, confirming the practicality of the proposed approach.
Reinforcement Learning Increases Wind Farm Power Production by Enabling Closed-Loop Collaborative Control
Mole, Andrew, Weissenbacher, Max, Rigas, Georgios, Laizet, Sylvain
Traditional wind farm control operates each turbine independently to maximize individual power output. However, coordinated wake steering across the entire farm can substantially increase the combined wind farm energy production. Although dynamic closed-loop control has proven effective in flow control applications, wind farm optimization has relied primarily on static, low-fidelity simulators that ignore critical turbulent flow dynamics. In this work, we present the first reinforcement learning (RL) controller integrated directly with high-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES), enabling real-time response to atmospheric turbulence through collaborative, dynamic control strategies. Our RL controller achieves a 4.30% increase in wind farm power output compared to baseline operation, nearly doubling the 2.19% gain from static optimal yaw control obtained through Bayesian optimization. These results establish dynamic flow-responsive control as a transformative approach to wind farm optimization, with direct implications for accelerating renewable energy deployment to net-zero targets.
EANS: Reducing Energy Consumption for UAV with an Environmental Adaptive Navigation Strategy
Liu, Tian, Liu, Han, Li, Boyang, Chen, Long, Huang, Kai
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVS) are limited by the onboard energy. Refinement of the navigation strategy directly affects both the flight velocity and the trajectory based on the adjustment of key parameters in the UAVS pipeline, thus reducing energy consumption. However, existing techniques tend to adopt static and conservative strategies in dynamic scenarios, leading to inefficient energy reduction. Dynamically adjusting the navigation strategy requires overcoming the challenges including the task pipeline interdependencies, the environmental-strategy correlations, and the selecting parameters. To solve the aforementioned problems, this paper proposes a method to dynamically adjust the navigation strategy of the UAVS by analyzing its dynamic characteristics and the temporal characteristics of the autonomous navigation pipeline, thereby reducing UAVS energy consumption in response to environmental changes. We compare our method with the baseline through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation and real-world experiments, showing our method 3.2X and 2.6X improvements in mission time, 2.4X and 1.6X improvements in energy, respectively.
Time-series surrogates from energy consumers generated by machine learning approaches for long-term forecasting scenarios
Gerhards, Ben, Popkov, Nikita, König, Annekatrin, Arpogaus, Marcel, Schäfermeier, Bastian, Riedl, Leonie, Vogt, Stephan, Hehlert, Philip
Forecasting attracts a lot of research attention in the electricity value chain. However, most studies concentrate on short-term forecasting of generation or consumption with a focus on systems and less on individual consumers. Even more neglected is the topic of long-term forecasting of individual power consumption. Here, we provide an in-depth comparative evaluation of data-driven methods for generating synthetic time series data tailored to energy consumption long-term forecasting. High-fidelity synthetic data is crucial for a wide range of applications, including state estimations in energy systems or power grid planning. In this study, we assess and compare the performance of multiple state-of-the-art but less common techniques: a hybrid Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN), Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), Hidden Markov Model (HMM), and Masked Autoregressive Bernstein polynomial normalizing Flows (MABF). We analyze the ability of each method to replicate the temporal dynamics, long-range dependencies, and probabilistic transitions characteristic of individual energy consumption profiles. Our comparative evaluation highlights the strengths and limitations of: WGAN, DDPM, HMM and MABF aiding in selecting the most suitable approach for state estimations and other energy-related tasks. Our generation and analysis framework aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of synthetic power consumption data while generating data that fulfills criteria like anonymisation - preserving privacy concerns mitigating risks of specific profiling of single customers. This study utilizes an open-source dataset from households in Germany with 15min time resolution. The generated synthetic power profiles can readily be used in applications like state estimations or consumption forecasting.
Universal pre-training by iterated random computation
We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.