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From Distributional to Quantile Neural Basis Models: the case of Electricity Price Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--While neural networks are achieving high predictive accuracy in multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting, understanding the underlying mechanisms that lead to feature-conditioned outputs remains a significant challenge for forecasters. In this work, we take a further step toward addressing this critical issue by introducing the Quantile Neural Basis Model, which incorporates the interpretability principles of Quantile Generalized Additive Models into an end-to-end neural network training framework. T o this end, we leverage shared basis decomposition and weight factorization, complementing Neural Models for Location, Scale, and Shape by avoiding any parametric distributional assumptions. We validate our approach on day-ahead electricity price forecasting, achieving predictive performance comparable to distributional and quantile regression neural networks, while offering valuable insights into model behavior through the learned nonlinear mappings from input features to output predictions across the horizon. The challenge of probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) in day-ahead power markets constitutes a critical research area with significant practical implications.


TFMAdapter: Lightweight Instance-Level Adaptation of Foundation Models for Forecasting with Covariates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.


PhysicalAgent: Towards General Cognitive Robotics with Foundation World Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- We introduce PhysicalAgent, an agentic framework for robotic manipulation that integrates iterative reasoning, diffusion-based video generation, and closed-loop execution. Given a textual instruction, our method generates short video demonstrations of candidate trajectories, executes them on the robot, and iteratively re-plans in response to failures. This approach enables robust recovery from execution errors. We evaluate PhysicalAgent across multiple perceptual modalities (egocentric, third-person, and simulated) and robotic embodiments (bimanual UR3, Unitree G1 humanoid, simulated GR1), comparing against state-of-the-art task-specific baselines. Experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms prior approaches, achieving up to 83% success on human-familiar tasks. Physical trials reveal that first-attempt success is limited (20-30%), yet iterative correction increases overall success to 80% across platforms. These results highlight the potential of video-based generative reasoning for general-purpose robotic manipulation and underscore the importance of iterative execution for recovering from initial failures. Our framework paves the way for scalable, adaptable, and robust robot control. The rapid progress of large foundation models has transformed the design of AI agents.


LamiGauss: Pitching Radiative Gaussian for Sparse-View X-ray Laminography Reconstruction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

X-ray Computed Laminography (CL) is essential for non-destructive inspection of plate-like structures in applications such as microchips and composite battery materials, where traditional computed tomography (CT) struggles due to geometric constraints. However, reconstructing high-quality volumes from laminographic projections remains challenging, particularly under highly sparse-view acquisition conditions. In this paper, we propose a reconstruction algorithm, namely LamiGauss, that combines Gaussian Splatting radiative rasterization with a dedicated detector-to-world transformation model incorporating the laminographic tilt angle. LamiGauss leverages an initialization strategy that explicitly filters out common laminographic artifacts from the preliminary reconstruction, preventing redundant Gaussians from being allocated to false structures and thereby concentrating model capacity on representing the genuine object. Our approach effectively optimizes directly from sparse projections, enabling accurate and efficient reconstruction with limited data. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method over existing techniques. LamiGauss uses only 3$\%$ of full views to achieve superior performance over the iterative method optimized on a full dataset.


Learning Minimal Representations of Many-Body Physics from Snapshots of a Quantum Simulator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Analog quantum simulators provide access to many-body dynamics beyond the reach of classical computation. However, extracting physical insights from experimental data is often hindered by measurement noise, limited observables, and incomplete knowledge of the underlying microscopic model. Here, we develop a machine learning approach based on a variational autoencoder (VAE) to analyze interference measurements of tunnel-coupled one-dimensional Bose gases, which realize the sine-Gordon quantum field theory. Trained in an unsupervised manner, the VAE learns a minimal latent representation that strongly correlates with the equilibrium control parameter of the system. Applied to non-equilibrium protocols, the latent space uncovers signatures of frozen-in solitons following rapid cooling, and reveals anomalous post-quench dynamics not captured by conventional correlation-based methods. These results demonstrate that generative models can extract physically interpretable variables directly from noisy and sparse experimental data, providing complementary probes of equilibrium and non-equilibrium physics in quantum simulators. More broadly, our work highlights how machine learning can supplement established field-theoretical techniques, paving the way for scalable, data-driven discovery in quantum many-body systems.


Floating-Body Hydrodynamic Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fluid-structure interaction is common in engineering and natural systems, where floating-body motion is governed by added mass, drag, and background flows. Modeling these dissipative dynamics is difficult: black-box neural models regress state derivatives with limited interpretability and unstable long-horizon predictions. We propose Floating-Body Hydrodynamic Neural Networks (FHNN), a physics-structured framework that predicts interpretable hydrodynamic parameters such as directional added masses, drag coefficients, and a streamfunction-based flow, and couples them with analytic equations of motion. This design constrains the hypothesis space, enhances interpretability, and stabilizes integration. On synthetic vortex datasets, FHNN achieves up to an order-of-magnitude lower error than Neural ODEs, recovers physically consistent flow fields. Compared with Hamiltonian and Lagrangian neural networks, FHNN more effectively handles dissipative dynamics while preserving interpretability, which bridges the gap between black-box learning and transparent system identification.


EZREAL: Enhancing Zero-Shot Outdoor Robot Navigation toward Distant Targets under Varying Visibility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Zero-shot object navigation (ZSON) in large-scale outdoor environments faces many challenges; we specifically address a coupled one: long-range targets that reduce to tiny projections and intermittent visibility due to partial or complete occlusion. We present a unified, lightweight closed-loop system built on an aligned multi-scale image tile hierarchy. Through hierarchical target-saliency fusion, it summarizes localized semantic contrast into a stable coarse-layer regional saliency that provides the target direction and indicates target visibility. This regional saliency supports visibility-aware heading maintenance through keyframe memory, saliency-weighted fusion of historical headings, and active search during temporary invisibility. The system avoids whole-image rescaling, enables deterministic bottom-up aggregation, supports zero-shot navigation, and runs efficiently on a mobile robot. Across simulation and real-world outdoor trials, the system detects semantic targets beyond 150m, maintains a correct heading through visibility changes with 82.6% probability, and improves overall task success by 17.5% compared with the SOTA methods, demonstrating robust ZSON toward distant and intermittently observable targets.


A Conformal Prediction Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Physics-Informed Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for solving PDEs, yet existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches for PINNs generally lack rigorous statistical guarantees. This framework calibrates prediction intervals by constructing nonconformity scores on a calibration set, thereby yielding distribution-free uncertainty estimates with rigorous finite-sample coverage guarantees for PINNs. To handle spatial het-eroskedasticity, we further introduce local conformal quantile estimation, enabling spatially adaptive uncertainty bands while preserving theoretical guarantee. Through systematic evaluations on typical PDEs (damped harmonic oscillator, Poisson, Allen-Cahn, and Helmholtz equations) and comprehensive testing across multiple uncertainty metrics, our results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves reliable calibration and locally adaptive uncertainty intervals, consistently outperforming heuristic UQ approaches. By bridging PINNs with distribution-free UQ, this work introduces a general framework that not only enhances calibration and reliability, but also opens new avenues for uncertainty-aware modeling of complex PDE systems.1. Introduction Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a versatile framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by embedding physical laws into neural network training [1, 2]. Numerous variants have been developed to enhance accuracy, efficiency, and applicability [3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8], enabling PINNs to address complex geometries [9, 10], high-dimensional and multiscale problems [11, 12, 13], and inverse formulations [14, 15] within a unified mesh-free paradigm. Applications span fluid mechanics [16, 17], heat transfer [18, 19], and materials science [20, 21]; see [16, 22, 23, 24, 25] for comprehensive reviews.


Automated Triaging and Transfer Learning of Incident Learning Safety Reports Using Large Language Representational Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

PURPOSE: Incident reports are an important tool for safety and quality improvement in healthcare, but manual review is time-consuming and requires subject matter expertise. Here we present a natural language processing (NLP) screening tool to detect high-severity incident reports in radiation oncology across two institutions. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We used two text datasets to train and evaluate our NLP models: 7,094 reports from our institution (Inst.), and 571 from IAEA SAFRON (SF), all of which had severity scores labeled by clinical content experts. We trained and evaluated two types of models: baseline support vector machines (SVM) and BlueBERT which is a large language model pretrained on PubMed abstracts and hospitalized patient data. We assessed for generalizability of our model in two ways. First, we evaluated models trained using Inst.-train on SF-test. Second, we trained a BlueBERT_TRANSFER model that was first fine-tuned on Inst.-train then on SF-train before testing on SF-test set. To further analyze model performance, we also examined a subset of 59 reports from our Inst. dataset, which were manually edited for clarity. RESULTS Classification performance on the Inst. test achieved AUROC 0.82 using SVM and 0.81 using BlueBERT. Without cross-institution transfer learning, performance on the SF test was limited to an AUROC of 0.42 using SVM and 0.56 using BlueBERT. BlueBERT_TRANSFER, which was fine-tuned on both datasets, improved the performance on SF test to AUROC 0.78. Performance of SVM, and BlueBERT_TRANSFER models on the manually curated Inst. reports (AUROC 0.85 and 0.74) was similar to human performance (AUROC 0.81). CONCLUSION: In summary, we successfully developed cross-institution NLP models on incident report text from radiation oncology centers. These models were able to detect high-severity reports similarly to humans on a curated dataset.


Deep Lookup Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convolutional neural networks are constructed with massive operations with different types and are highly computationally intensive. Among these operations, multiplication operation is higher in computational complexity and usually requires {more} energy consumption with longer inference time than other operations, which hinders the deployment of convolutional neural networks on mobile devices. In many resource-limited edge devices, complicated operations can be calculated via lookup tables to reduce computational cost. Motivated by this, in this paper, we introduce a generic and efficient lookup operation which can be used as a basic operation for the construction of neural networks. Instead of calculating the multiplication of weights and activation values, simple yet efficient lookup operations are adopted to compute their responses. To enable end-to-end optimization of the lookup operation, we construct the lookup tables in a differentiable manner and propose several training strategies to promote their convergence. By replacing computationally expensive multiplication operations with our lookup operations, we develop lookup networks for the image classification, image super-resolution, and point cloud classification tasks. It is demonstrated that our lookup networks can benefit from the lookup operations to achieve higher efficiency in terms of energy consumption and inference speed while maintaining competitive performance to vanilla convolutional networks. Extensive experiments show that our lookup networks produce state-of-the-art performance on different tasks (both classification and regression tasks) and different data types (both images and point clouds).