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Improving accuracy in short mortality rate series: Exploring Multi-step Forecasting Approaches in Hybrid Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health, demographic planning, and insurance risk assessments; however, they face challenges when data are limited. Hybrid systems that combine statistical and Machine Learning (ML) models offer a promising solution for handling both linear and nonlinear patterns. This study evaluated the impact of different multi-step forecasting approaches (Recursive, Direct, and Multi-Input Multi-Output) and ML models on the accuracy of hybrid systems. Results from 12 datasets and 21 models show that the selection of both the multi-step approach and the ML model is essential for improving performance, with the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid using a recursive approach outperforming other models in most cases.


What Is The Political Content in LLMs' Pre- and Post-Training Data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are known to generate politically biased text, yet how such biases arise remains unclear. A crucial step toward answering this question is the analysis of training data, whose political content remains largely underexplored in current LLM research. To address this gap, we present in this paper an analysis of the pre- and post-training corpora of OLMO2, the largest fully open-source model released together with its complete dataset. From these corpora, we draw large random samples, automatically annotate documents for political orientation, and analyze their source domains and content. We then assess how political content in the training data correlates with models' stance on specific policy issues. Our analysis shows that left-leaning documents predominate across datasets, with pre-training corpora containing significantly more politically engaged content than post-training data. We also find that left- and right-leaning documents frame similar topics through distinct values and sources of legitimacy. Finally, the predominant stance in the training data strongly correlates with models' political biases when evaluated on policy issues. These findings underscore the need to integrate political content analysis into future data curation pipelines as well as in-depth documentation of filtering strategies for transparency.


Exploratory Semantic Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbine Maintenance Logs using Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A wealth of operational intelligence is locked within the unstructured free-text of wind turbine maintenance logs, a resource largely inaccessible to traditional quantitative reliability analysis. While machine learning has been applied to this data, existing approaches typically stop at classification, categorising text into predefined labels. This paper addresses the gap in leveraging modern large language models (LLMs) for more complex reasoning tasks. We introduce an exploratory framework that uses LLMs to move beyond classification and perform deep semantic analysis. We apply this framework to a large industrial dataset to execute four analytical workflows: failure mode identification, causal chain inference, comparative site analysis, and data quality auditing. The results demonstrate that LLMs can function as powerful "reliability co-pilots," moving beyond labelling to synthesise textual information and generate actionable, expert-level hypotheses. This work contributes a novel and reproducible methodology for using LLMs as a reasoning tool, offering a new pathway to enhance operational intelligence in the wind energy sector by unlocking insights previously obscured in unstructured data.


GeCCo -- a Generalist Contact-Conditioned Policy for Loco-Manipulation Skills on Legged Robots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most modern approaches to quadruped locomotion focus on using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to learn policies from scratch, in an end-to-end manner. Such methods often fail to scale, as every new problem or application requires time-consuming and iterative reward definition and tuning. We present Generalist Contact-Conditioned Policy (GeCCo) -- a low-level policy trained with Deep Reinforcement Learning that is capable of tracking arbitrary contact points on a quadruped robot. The strength of our approach is that it provides a general and modular low-level controller that can be reused for a wider range of high-level tasks, without the need to re-train new controllers from scratch. We demonstrate the scalability and robustness of our method by evaluating on a wide range of locomotion and manipulation tasks in a common framework and under a single generalist policy. These include a variety of gaits, traversing complex terrains (eg. stairs and slopes) as well as previously unseen stepping-stones and narrow beams, and interacting with objects (eg. pushing buttons, tracking trajectories). Our framework acquires new behaviors more efficiently, simply by combining a task-specific high-level contact planner and the pre-trained generalist policy. A supplementary video can be found at https://youtu.be/o8Dd44MkG2E.


Evaluating the Energy Efficiency of NPU-Accelerated Machine Learning Inference on Embedded Microcontrollers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The deployment of machine learning (ML) models on microcontrollers (MCUs) is constrained by strict energy, latency, and memory requirements, particularly in battery - operated and real - time edge devices. While software - level optimizations such as quantizatio n and pruning reduce model size and computation, hardware acceleration has emerged as a decisive enabler for efficient embedded inference. This paper evaluates the impact of Neural Processing Units (NPUs) on MCU - based ML execution, using the ARM Cortex - M55 core combined with the Ethos - U55 NPU on the Alif Semiconductor Ensemble E7 development board as a representative platform. A rigorous measurement methodology was employed, incorporating per - inference net energy accounting via GPIO - triggered high - resolutio n digital multimeter synchronization and idle - state subtraction, ensuring accurate attribution of energy costs. Experimental results across six representative ML models -- including MiniResNet, MobileNetV2, FD - MobileNet, MNIST, TinyYolo, and SSD - MobileNet -- dem onstrate substantial efficiency gains when inference is offloaded to the NPU. For moderate to large networks, latency improvements ranged from 7 to over 125, with per - inference net energy reductions up to 143 . Notably, the NPU enabled execution of model s unsupported on CPU - only paths, such as SSD - MobileNet, highlighting its functional as well as efficiency advantages. These findings establish NPUs as a cornerstone of energy - aware embedded AI, enabling real - time, power - constrained ML inference at the MCU level.


TAMMs: Temporal-Aware Multimodal Model for Satellite Image Change Understanding and Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Temporal Change Description (TCD) and Future Satellite Image Forecasting (FSIF) are critical, yet historically disjointed tasks in Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) analysis. Both are fundamentally limited by the common challenge of modeling long-range temporal dynamics. To explore how to improve the performance of methods on both tasks simultaneously by enhancing long-range temporal understanding capabilities, we introduce TAMMs, the first unified framework designed to jointly perform TCD and FSIF within a single MLLM-diffusion architecture. TAMMs introduces two key innovations: Temporal Adaptation Modules (TAM) enhance frozen MLLM's ability to comprehend long-range dynamics, and Semantic-Fused Control Injection (SFCI) mechanism translates this change understanding into fine-grained generative control. This synergistic design makes the understanding from the TCD task to directly inform and improve the consistency of the FSIF task. Extensive experiments demonstrate TAMMs significantly outperforms state-of-the-art specialist baselines on both tasks.


One-DoF Robotic Design of Overconstrained Limbs with Energy-Efficient, Self-Collision-Free Motion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While it is expected to build robotic limbs with multiple degrees of freedom (DoF) inspired by nature, a single DoF design remains fundamental, providing benefits that include, but are not limited to, simplicity, robustness, cost-effectiveness, and efficiency. Mechanisms, especially those with multiple links and revolute joints connected in closed loops, play an enabling factor in introducing motion diversity for 1-DoF systems, which are usually constrained by self-collision during a full-cycle range of motion. This study presents a novel computational approach to designing one-degree-of-freedom (1-DoF) overconstrained robotic limbs for a desired spatial trajectory, while achieving energy-efficient, self-collision-free motion in full-cycle rotations. Firstly, we present the geometric optimization problem of linkage-based robotic limbs in a generalized formulation for self-collision-free design. Next, we formulate the spatial trajectory generation problem with the overconstrained linkages by optimizing the similarity and dynamic-related metrics. We further optimize the geometric shape of the overconstrained linkage to ensure smooth and collision-free motion driven by a single actuator. We validated our proposed method through various experiments, including personalized automata and bio-inspired hexapod robots. The resulting hexapod robot, featuring overconstrained robotic limbs, demonstrated outstanding energy efficiency during forward walking.


Extracting Actionable Insights from Building Energy Data using Vision LLMs on Wavelet and 3D Recurrence Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The analysis of complex building time-series for actionable insights and recommendations remains challenging due to the nonlinear and multi-scale characteristics of energy data. To address this, we propose a framework that fine-tunes visual language large models (VLLMs) on 3D graphical representations of the data. The approach converts 1D time-series into 3D representations using continuous wavelet transforms (CWTs) and recurrence plots (RPs), which capture temporal dynamics and localize frequency anomalies. These 3D encodings enable VLLMs to visually interpret energy-consumption patterns, detect anomalies, and provide recommendations for energy efficiency. We demonstrate the framework on real-world building-energy datasets, where fine-tuned VLLMs successfully monitor building states, identify recurring anomalies, and generate optimization recommendations. Quantitatively, the Idefics-7B VLLM achieves validation losses of 0.0952 with CWTs and 0.1064 with RPs on the University of Sharjah energy dataset, outperforming direct fine-tuning on raw time-series data (0.1176) for anomaly detection. This work bridges time-series analysis and visualization, providing a scalable and interpretable framework for energy analytics.


WAVE: Worm Gear-based Adaptive Variable Elasticity for Decoupling Actuators from External Forces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manipulators capable of regulating both compliance and stiffness offer enhanced operational safety and versatility. Here, we introduce Worm Gear-based Adaptive Variable Elasticity (WAVE), a variable stiffness actuator (VSA) that integrates a non-backdrivable worm gear. By decoupling the driving motor from external forces using this gear, WAVE enables precise force transmission to the joint, while absorbing positional discrepancies through compliance. WAVE is protected from excessive loads by converting impact forces into elastic energy stored in a spring. In addition, the actuator achieves continuous joint stiffness modulation by changing the spring's precompression length. We demonstrate these capabilities, experimentally validate the proposed stiffness model, show that motor loads approach zero at rest--even under external loading--and present applications using a manipulator with WAVE. This outcome showcases the successful decoupling of external forces. The protective attributes of this actuator allow for extended operation in contact-intensive tasks, and for robust robotic applications in challenging environments.


Scaling Laws for Neural Material Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting material properties is crucial for designing better batteries, semiconductors, and medical devices. Deep learning helps scientists quickly find promising materials by predicting their energy, forces, and stresses. Companies scale capacities of deep learning models in multiple domains, such as language modeling, and invest many millions of dollars into such models. Our team analyzes how scaling training data (giving models more information to learn from), model sizes (giving models more capacity to learn patterns), and compute (giving models more computational resources) for neural networks affects their performance for material property prediction. In particular, we trained both transformer and EquiformerV2 neural networks to predict material properties. We find empirical scaling laws for these models: we can predict how increasing each of the three hyperparameters (training data, model size, and compute) affects predictive performance. In particular, the loss $L$ can be measured with a power law relationship $L = α\cdot N^{-β}$, where $α$ and $β$ are constants while $N$ is the relevant hyperparameter. We also incorporate command-line arguments for changing training settings such as the amount of epochs, maximum learning rate, and whether mixed precision is enabled. Future work could entail further investigating scaling laws for other neural network models in this domain, such as GemNet and fully connected networks, to assess how they compare to the models we trained.