Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some learned mean values, can achieve the unbelievable marginals.

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) setting is a useful abstraction of many online learning tasks which focuses on the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. In this setting, an online algorithm has a fixed set of alternatives ("arms"), and in each round it selects one arm and then observes the corresponding reward. While the case of small number of arms is by now well-understood, a lot of recent work has focused on multi-armed bandits with (infinitely) many arms, where one needs to assume extra structure in order to make the problem tractable. In particular, in the Lipschitz MAB problem there is an underlying similarity metric space, known to the algorithm, such that any two arms that are close in this metric space have similar payoffs. In this paper we consider the more realistic scenario in which the metric space is *implicit* -- it is defined by the available structure but not revealed to the algorithm directly. Specifically, we assume that an algorithm is given a tree-based classification of arms. For any given problem instance such a classification implicitly defines a similarity metric space, but the numerical similarity information is not available to the algorithm. We provide an algorithm for this setting, whose performance guarantees (almost) match the best known guarantees for the corresponding instance of the Lipschitz MAB problem.

We show an application of a tree structure for approximate inference in graphical models using the expectation propagation algorithm. These approximations are typically used over graphs with short-range cycles. We demonstrate that these approximations also help in sparse graphs with long-range loops, as the ones used in coding theory to approach channel capacity. For asymptotically large sparse graph, the expectation propagation algorithm together with the tree structure yields a completely disconnected approximation to the graphical model but, for for finite-length practical sparse graphs, the tree structure approximation to the code graph provides accurate estimates for the marginal of each variable. Furthermore, we propose a new method for constructing the tree structure on the fly that might be more amenable for sparse graphs with general factors.

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on kernel representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed as empirical kernel mean and covariance operators, respectively, and the kernel mean of the posterior distribution is computed in the form of a weighted sample. The kernel Bayes' rule can be applied to a wide variety of Bayesian inference problems: we demonstrate Bayesian computation without likelihood, and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model. A consistency rate for the posterior estimate is established.

Budgeted optimization involves optimizing an unknown function that is costly to evaluate by requesting a limited number of function evaluations at intelligently selected inputs. Typical problem formulations assume that experiments are selected one at a time with a limited total number of experiments, which fail to capture important aspects of many real-world problems. This paper defines a novel problem formulation with the following important extensions: 1) allowing for concurrent experiments; 2) allowing for stochastic experiment durations; and 3) placing constraints on both the total number of experiments and the total experimental time. We develop both offline and online algorithms for selecting concurrent experiments in this new setting and provide experimental results on a number of optimization benchmarks. The results show that our algorithms produce highly effective schedules compared to natural baselines.

In this paper, we present a novel decentralised management technique that allows electricity micro-storage devices, deployed within individual homes as part of a smart electricity grid, to converge to profitable and efficient behaviours. Specifically, we propose the use of software agents, residing on the users' smart meters, to automate and optimise the charging cycle of micro-storage devices in the home to minimise its costs, and we present a study of both the theoretical underpinnings and the implications of a practical solution, of using software agents for such micro-storage management. First, by formalising the strategic choice each agent makes in deciding when to charge its battery, we develop a game-theoretic framework within which we can analyse the competitive equilibria of an electricity grid populated by such agents and hence predict the best consumption profile for that population given their battery properties and individual load profiles. Our framework also allows us to compute theoretical bounds on the amount of storage that will be adopted by the population. Second, to analyse the practical implications of micro-storage deployments in the grid, we present a novel algorithm that each agent can use to optimise its battery storage profile in order to minimise its owner's costs. This algorithm uses a learning strategy that allows it to adapt as the price of electricity changes in real-time, and we show that the adoption of these strategies results in the system converging to the theoretical equilibria. Finally, we empirically evaluate the adoption of our micro-storage management technique within a complex setting, based on the UK electricity market, where agents may have widely varying load profiles, battery types, and learning rates. In this case, our approach yields savings of up to 14% in energy cost for an average consumer using a storage device with a capacity of less than 4.5 kWh and up to a 7% reduction in carbon emissions resulting from electricity generation (with only domestic consumers adopting micro-storage and, commercial and industrial consumers not changing their demand). Moreover, corroborating our theoretical bound, an equilibrium is shown to exist where no more than 48% of households would wish to own storage devices and where social welfare would also be improved (yielding overall annual savings of nearly £1.5B).

A linear non-Gaussian structural equation model called LiNGAM is an identifiable model for exploratory causal analysis. Previous methods estimate a causal ordering of variables and their connection strengths based on a single dataset. However, in many application domains, data are obtained under different conditions, that is, multiple datasets are obtained rather than a single dataset. In this paper, we present a new method to jointly estimate multiple LiNGAMs under the assumption that the models share a causal ordering but may have different connection strengths and differently distributed variables. In simulations, the new method estimates the models more accurately than estimating them separately.

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process, without relying on a truncated model. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth and death proposals. We examine the benefits of our proposed feature-based model on several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

This paper illustrates successful implementation of three evolutionary algorithms, namely- Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and Bacterial Foraging Optimization (BFO) algorithms to economic load dispatch problem (ELD). Power output of each generating unit and optimum fuel cost obtained using all three algorithms have been compared. The results obtained show that ABC and BFO algorithms converge to optimal fuel cost with reduced computational time when compared to PSO for the two example problems considered.

In this paper we develop a model to simulate the evolution of a pollution-free resource gathering technology that is initially less efficient but ultimately reaches parity with polluting technology. We find that for low levels of pollution, pressure exerted by society can indeed encourage the development and use of non-polluting technology, with greater pressure being associated with faster achievement of efficiency parity and lower overall pollution. However, greater pressure is also associated with lower populations and at the highest levels of pressure there are significant risks of population crashes. We find that these results hold for both localized pollution and globalized pollution, with globalized pollution encouraging faster achievement of efficiency parity. For high levels of pollution we find that introducing societal pressure significantly increases the occurrence of population crashes, and thus the strategy is only effective under certain conditions.