Local and distributed power generation is increasingly relianton renewable power sources, e.g., solar (photovoltaic or PV) andwind energy. The integration of such sources into the power grid ischallenging, however, due to their variable and intermittent energyoutput. To effectively use them on alarge scale, it is essential to be able to predict power generation at afine-grained level. We describe a novel Bayesian ensemble methodologyinvolving three diverse predictors. Each predictor estimates mixingcoefficients for integrating PV generation output profiles but capturesfundamentally different characteristics. Two of them employ classicalparameterized (naive Bayes) and non-parametric (nearest neighbor) methods tomodel the relationship between weather forecasts and PV output. The thirdpredictor captures the sequentiality implicit in PV generation and uses motifsmined from historical data to estimate the most likely mixture weights usinga stream prediction methodology. We demonstrate the success and superiority of ourmethods on real PV data from two locations that exhibit diverse weatherconditions. Predictions from our model can be harnessed to optimize schedulingof delay tolerant workloads, e.g., in a data center.

A number of problems in statistical physics and computer science can be expressed as the computation of marginal probabilities over a Markov random field. Belief propagation, an iterative message-passing algorithm, computes exactly such marginals when the underlying graph is a tree. But it has gained its popularity as an efficient way to approximate them in the more general case, even if it can exhibits multiple fixed points and is not guaranteed to converge. In this paper, we express a new sufficient condition for local stability of a belief propagation fixed point in terms of the graph structure and the beliefs values at the fixed point. This gives credence to the usual understanding that Belief Propagation performs better on sparse graphs.

Inference of hidden classes in stochastic block model is a classical problem with important applications. Most commonly used methods for this problem involve na\"{\i}ve mean field approaches or heuristic spectral methods. Recently, belief propagation was proposed for this problem. In this contribution we perform a comparative study between the three methods on synthetically created networks. We show that belief propagation shows much better performance when compared to na\"{\i}ve mean field and spectral approaches. This applies to accuracy, computational efficiency and the tendency to overfit the data.

Message passing type algorithms such as the so-called Belief Propagation algorithm have recently gained a lot of attention in the statistics, signal processing and machine learning communities as attractive algorithms for solving a variety of optimization and inference problems. As a decentralized, easy to implement and empirically successful algorithm, BP deserves attention from the theoretical standpoint, and here not much is known at the present stage. In order to fill this gap we consider the performance of the BP algorithm in the context of the capacitated minimum-cost network flow problem - the classical problem in the operations research field. We prove that BP converges to the optimal solution in the pseudo-polynomial time, provided that the optimal solution of the underlying problem is unique and the problem input is integral. Moreover, we present a simple modification of the BP algorithm which gives a fully polynomial-time randomized approximation scheme (FPRAS) for the same problem, which no longer requires the uniqueness of the optimal solution. This is the first instance where BP is proved to have fully-polynomial running time. Our results thus provide a theoretical justification for the viability of BP as an attractive method to solve an important class of optimization problems.

We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of Herbster and Warmuth (1998) in this setting. We then apply these rules to the sequential short-term (one-day-ahead) forecasting of electricity consumption; to do so, we consider two data sets, a Slovakian one and a French one, respectively concerned with hourly and half-hourly predictions. We follow a general methodology to perform the stated empirical studies and detail in particular tuning issues of the learning parameters. The introduced aggregation rules demonstrate an improved accuracy on the data sets at hand; the improvements lie in a reduced mean squared error but also in a more robust behavior with respect to large occasional errors.

This paper is motivated by the practical problem of how to meaningfully perform sparse regression when the predictor variables are observed with measurement error or some source of uncertainty. We will refer to this error or noise as design uncertainty to emphasize that perturbations in the design matrix may arise from a number of random sources unrelated to experimental or measurement error per se. Recent workin this areahasjust begun to addressthe issue ofsparseregressionunder design uncertainty from a theoretical point of view. We are primarily interested in describing an approach that, while theoretically justifiable, is essentially pragmatic and broadly applicable. In short, we argue that greed - a basic feature of many sparsity promoting algorithms - is indeed good [Tropp, 2004], so long as the design data is scaled by the uncertainty variances. We demonstrate the efficacy of scaling from several points of view and validate it empirically with a biomass characterization data set using two of the most widely used sparse algorithms: least angle regression (LARS) and the Dantzig selector (DS). Our work was motivated by an example from a biomass characterization experiment related to work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The example is described in detail in Section 4 and contains repeated measurements of mass spectral (design, or predictor) and sugar mass fraction (response) values within each switchgrass sample. The domain scientists' goal was to find a small subset of masses in the spectrum that could be used to predict sugar mass fraction.

We propose a hierarchy for approximate inference based on the Dobrushin, Lanford, Ruelle (DLR) equations. This hierarchy includes existing algorithms, such as belief propagation, and also motivates novel algorithms such as factorized neighbors (FN) algorithms and variants of mean field (MF) algorithms. In particular, we show that extrema of the Bethe free energy correspond to approximate solutions of the DLR equations. In addition, we demonstrate a close connection between these approximate algorithms and Gibbs sampling. Finally, we compare and contrast various of the algorithms in the DLR hierarchy on spin-glass problems. The experiments show that algorithms higher up in the hierarchy give more accurate results when they converge but tend to be less stable.

In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and provide an output. Often these simulators are themselves expensive to compute, and may be approximated by "surrogate models" such as statistical regression models. In this paper we consider a new kind of surrogate model, a Bayesian ensemble of trees (Chipman et al. 2010), with the specific goal of learning enough about the simulator that a particular feature of the simulator can be estimated. We focus on identifying the simulator's global minimum. Utilizing the Bayesian version of the Expected Improvement criterion (Jones et al. 1998), we show that this ensemble is particularly effective when the simulator is ill-behaved, exhibiting nonstationarity or abrupt changes in the response. A number of illustrations of the approach are given, including a tidal power application.

Deregulation of energy markets, penetration of renewables, advanced metering capabilities, and the urge for situational awareness, all call for system-wide power system state estimation (PSSE). Implementing a centralized estimator though is practically infeasible due to the complexity scale of an interconnection, the communication bottleneck in real-time monitoring, regional disclosure policies, and reliability issues. In this context, distributed PSSE methods are treated here under a unified and systematic framework. A novel algorithm is developed based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. It leverages existing PSSE solvers, respects privacy policies, exhibits low communication load, and its convergence to the centralized estimates is guaranteed even in the absence of local observability. Beyond the conventional least-squares based PSSE, the decentralized framework accommodates a robust state estimator. By exploiting interesting links to the compressive sampling advances, the latter jointly estimates the state and identifies corrupted measurements. The novel algorithms are numerically evaluated using the IEEE 14-, 118-bus, and a 4,200-bus benchmarks. Simulations demonstrate that the attainable accuracy can be reached within a few inter-area exchanges, while largest residual tests are outperformed.

We propose to describe the variety of galaxies from SDSS by using only one affine parameter. To this aim, we build the Principal Curve (P-curve) passing through the spine of the data point cloud, considering the eigenspace derived from Principal Component Analysis of morphological, physical and photometric galaxy properties. Thus, galaxies can be labeled, ranked and classified by a single arc length value of the curve, measured at the unique closest projection of the data points on the P-curve. We find that the P-curve has a "W" letter shape with 3 turning points, defining 4 branches that represent distinct galaxy populations. This behavior is controlled mainly by 2 properties, namely u-r and SFR. We further present the variations of several galaxy properties as a function of arc length. Luminosity functions variate from steep Schechter fits at low arc length, to double power law and ending in Log-normal fits at high arc length. Galaxy clustering shows increasing autocorrelation power at large scales as arc length increases. PCA analysis allowed to find peculiar galaxy populations located apart from the main cloud of data points, such as small red galaxies dominated by a disk, of relatively high stellar mass-to-light ratio and surface mass density. The P-curve allows not only dimensionality reduction, but also provides supporting evidence for relevant physical models and scenarios in extragalactic astronomy: 1) Evidence for the hierarchical merging scenario in the formation of a selected group of red massive galaxies. These galaxies present a log-normal r-band luminosity function, which might arise from multiplicative processes involved in this scenario. 2) Connection between the onset of AGN activity and star formation quenching, which appears in green galaxies when transitioning from blue to red populations. (Full abstract in downloadable version)