Many real-world planning problems are oversubscription problems where all goals are not simultaneously achievable and the planner needs to find a feasible subset. We present complexity results for the so-called partial satisfaction and net benefit problems under various restrictions; this extends previous work by van den Briel et al. Our results reveal strong connections between these problems and with classical planning. We also present a method for efficiently compiling oversubscription problems into the ordinary plan existence problem; this can be viewed as a continuation of earlier work by Keyder & Geffner.

Greedy Best-First Search (GBFS) is a powerful algorithm at the heart of many state of the art satisficing planners. One major weakness of GBFS is its behavior in so-called uninformative heuristic regions (UHRs) - parts of the search space in which no heuristic provides guidance towards states with improved heuristic values. This work analyzes the problem of UHRs in planning in detail, and proposes a two level search framework as a solution. In Greedy Best-First Search with Local Exploration (GBFS-LE), a local exploration is started from within a global GBFS whenever the search seems stuck in UHRs. Two different local exploration strategies are developed and evaluated experimentally: Local GBFS (LS) and Local Random Walk Search (LRW). The two new planners LAMA-LS and LAMA-LRW integrate these strategies into the GBFS component of LAMA-2011. Both are shown to yield clear improvements in terms of both coverage and search time on standard International Planning Competition benchmarks, especially for domains that are proven to have large or un- bounded UHRs.

Many AI applications need to explicitly represent relational structure as well as handle uncertainty. First order probabilistic models combine the power of logic and probability to deal with such domains. A naive approach to inference in these models is to propositionalize the whole theory and carry out the inference on the ground network. Lifted inference techniques (such as lifted belief propagation; Singla and Domingos 2008) provide a more scalable approach to inference by combining together groups of objects which behave identically. In many cases, constructing the lifted network can itself be quite costly. In addition, the exact lifted network is often very close in size to the fully propositionalized model. To overcome these problems, we present approximate lifted inference, which groups together similar but distinguishable objects and treats them as if they were identical. Early stopping terminates the execution of the lifted network construction at an early stage resulting in a coarser network. Noise-tolerant hypercubes allow for marginal errors in the representation of the lifted network itself. Both of our algorithms can significantly speed up the process of lifted network construction as well as result in much smaller models. The coarseness of the approximation can be adjusted depending on the accuracy required, and we can bound the resulting error. Extensive evaluation on six domains demonstrates great efficiency gains with only minor (or no) loss in accuracy.

An important requirement of household energy simulation models is their accuracy in estimating energy demand and its fluctuations. Occupant behavior has a major impact upon energy demand. However, Markov chains, the traditional approach to model occupant behavior, (1) has limitations in accurately capturing the coordinated behavior of occupants and (2) is prone to over-fitting. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach that relies on a combination of data mining techniques. The core idea of our model is to determine the behavior of occupants based on nearest neighbor comparison over a database of sample data. Importantly, the model takes into account features related to the coordination of occupants' activities. We use a customized distance function suited for mixed categorical and numerical data. Further, association rule learning allows us to capture the coordination between occupants. Using real data from four households in Japan we are able to show that our model outperforms the traditional Markov chain model with respect to occupant coordination and generalization of behavior patterns.

Sustainable energy systems of the future will no longer be able to rely on the current paradigm that energy supply follows demand. Many of the renewable energy resources do not produce power on demand, and therefore there is a need for new market structures that motivate sustainable behaviors by participants. The Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) is a new annual competition that focuses on the design and operation of future retail power markets, specifically in smart grid environments with renewable energy production, smart metering, and autonomous agents acting on behalf of customers and retailers. It uses a rich, open-source simulation platform that is based on real-world data and state-of-the-art customer models. Its purpose is to help researchers understand the dynamics of customer and retailer decision-making, as well as the robustness of proposed market designs. This paper introduces TacTex'13, the champion agent from the inaugural competition in 2013. TacTex'13 learns and adapts to the environment in which it operates, by heavily relying on reinforcement learning and prediction methods. This paper describes the constituent components of TacTex'13 and examines its success through analysis of competition results and subsequent controlled experiments.

Algorithm's time complexity is an essential issue for time series prediction in numerous practices.A novel fast exact inference method for Gaussian process model is proposed in this paper to accelerate the task of non-stationary time series prediction. Experiment was done on the real world power load data.

A wide range of robotic missions contain actions that exhibit looping behavior. Examples of these actions include picking fruit in agriculture, pick-and-place tasks in manufacturing and search patterns in robotic search or survey missions. These looping actions often have a range of acceptable values for the number of loops and a preference function over them. For example, during robotic survey missions, the information gain is expected to increase with the number of loops in a search pattern. Since these looping actions also take time, which is typically bounded, there is a challenge of maximizing utility while respecting time constraints. In this paper, we introduce the Looping Temporal Problem with Preference (LTPP) as a simple parameterized extension of a simple temporal problem. In addition, we introduce a scheduling algorithm for LTPPs which leverages the structure of the problem to find the optimal solution efficiently. We show more than an order of magnitude improvement in run-time over current scheduling techniques and framing a LTPP as a MINLP.

A model of the problem of charging and discharging electrical vehicles as a congestion game is presented. A generalization of congestion games - feedback congestion games (FCG) - is introduced. The charging of grid-integrated vehicles, which can also discharge energy back to the grid, is a natural FCG application. FCGs are proven to be exact potential games and therefore converge to a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium by an iterated better-response process. A compact representation and an algorithm that enable efficient best-response search are presented. A detailed empirical evaluation assesses the performance of the iterated best-response process. The evaluation considers the quality of the resulting solutions and the rate of convergence to a stable state. The effect of allowing to also discharge batteries using FCG is compared to scenarios that only include charging and is found to dramatically improve the predictability of the achieved solutions as well as the balancing of load.

In portfolio selection, it often might be preferable to focus on a few top performing industries/sectors to beat the market. These top performing sectors however might change over time. In this paper, we propose an online portfolio selection algorithm that can take advantage of sector information through the use of a group sparsity inducing regularizer while making lazy updates to the portfolio. The lazy updates prevent changing ones portfolio too often which otherwise might incur huge transaction costs. The proposed formulation leads to a non-smooth constrained optimization problem at every step, with the constraint that the solution has to lie in a probability simplex. We propose an efficient primal-dual based alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness for the problem of online portfolio selection with sector information. We show that our algorithm OLU-GS has sub-linear regret w.r.t. the best fixed and best shifting solution in hindsight. We successfully establish the robustness and scalability of OLU-GS by performing extensive experiments on two real-world datasets.

Demand response is a critical part of renewable integration and energy cost reduction goals across the world. Motivated by the need to reduce costs arising from electricity shortage and renewable energy fluctuations, we propose a novel multiarmed bandit mechanism for demand response (MAB-MDR) which makes monetary offers to strategic consumers who have unknown response characteristics, to incetivize reduction in demand. Our work is inspired by a novel connection we make to crowdsourcing mechanisms. The proposed mechanism incorporates realistic features of the demand response problem including time varying and quadratic cost function. The mechanism marries auctions, that allow users to report their preferences, with online algorithms, that allow distribution companies to learn user-specific parameters. We show that MAB-MDR is dominant strategy incentive compatible, individually rational, and achieves sublinear regret. Such mechanisms can be effectively deployed in smart grids using new information and control architecture innovations and lead to welcome savings in energy costs.