There has been great progress in improving numerical weather prediction and climate models using machine learning. However, most global models act at a kilometer-scale, making it challenging to model individual clouds and factors such as extreme precipitation, wind gusts, turbulence, and surface irradiance. Therefore, there is a need to move towards higher-resolution models, which in turn require high-resolution real-world observations that current instruments struggle to obtain. We present Cloud4D, the first learning-based framework that reconstructs a physically consistent, four-dimensional cloud state using only synchronized ground-based cameras.

Low-rank pre-training and finetuning have recently emerged as promising techniques for reducing the computational and storage costs of large neural networks. Training low-rank parameterizations typically relies on conventional optimizers such as heavy ball momentum methods or Adam. In this work, we identify and analyze potential difficulties that these training methods encounter when used to train low-rank parameterizations of weights. In particular, we show that classical momentum methods can struggle to converge to a local optimum due to the geometry of the underlying optimization landscape. To address this, we introduce novel training strategies that combine dynamical low-rank approximation with momentum-based optimization, explicitly accounting for the intrinsic geometry of the parameter space. We validate our methods through numerical experiments, demonstrating stronger validation metrics at given parameter budgets.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating scientific hypothesis generation, yet existing approaches primarily yield coarse-grained hypotheses lacking critical methodological and experimental details. We introduce and formally define the new task of fine-grained scientific hypothesis discovery, which entails generating detailed, experimentally actionable hypotheses from coarse initial research directions. We frame this as a combinatorial optimization problem and investigate the upper limits of LLMs' capacity to solve it when maximally leveraged. Specifically, we explore four foundational questions: (1) how to best harness an LLM's internal heuristics to formulate the fine-grained hypothesis it itself would judge as the most promising among all the possible hypotheses it might generate, based on its own internal scoring-thus defining a latent reward landscape over the hypothesis space; (2) whether such LLM-judged better hypotheses exhibit stronger alignment with ground-truth hypotheses; (3) whether shaping the reward landscape using an ensemble of diverse LLMs of similar capacity yields better outcomes than defining it with repeated instances of the strongest LLM among them; and (4) whether an ensemble of identical LLMs provides a more reliable reward landscape than a single LLM. To address these questions, we propose a hierarchical search method that incrementally proposes and integrates details into the hypothesis, progressing from general concepts to specific experimental configurations. We show that this hierarchical process smooths the reward landscape and enables more effective optimization. Empirical evaluations on a new benchmark of expert-annotated fine-grained hypotheses from recent literature show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines.1

Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. STACIintroduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that STACIeffectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

Molecular dynamics (MD) provides insights into atomic-scale processes by integrating over time the equations that describe the motion of atoms under the action of interatomic forces. Machine learning models have substantially accelerated MD by providing inexpensive predictions of the forces, but they remain constrained to minuscule time integration steps, which are required by the fast time scale of atomic motion. In this work, we propose FlashMD, a method to predict the evolution of positions and momenta over strides that are between one and two orders of magnitude longer than typical MD time steps. We incorporate considerations on the mathematical and physical properties of Hamiltonian dynamics in the architecture, generalize the approach to allow the simulation of any thermodynamic ensemble, and carefully assess the possible failure modes of such a long-stride MD approach. We validate FlashMD's accuracy in reproducing equilibrium and time-dependent properties, using both system-specific and general-purpose models, extending the ability of MD simulation to reach the long time scales needed to model microscopic processes of high scientific and technological relevance.

SO(3)-equivariant networks are the dominant models for machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). The key operation of such networks is the ClebschGordan (CG) tensor product, which is computationally expensive. To accelerate the computation, we develop tensor decomposition networks (TDNs) as a class of approximately equivariant networks in which CG tensor products are replaced by low-rank tensor decompositions, such as the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition. With the CP decomposition, we prove (i) a uniform bound on the induced error of SO(3)-equivariance, and (ii) the universality of approximating any equivariant bilinear map. To further reduce the number of parameters, we propose path-weight sharing that ties all multiplicity-space weights across the O(L3)CG paths into a single shared parameter set without compromising equivariance, where L is the maximum angular degree.

Spatio-Temporal (ST) Foundation Models (STFMs) promise cross-dataset generalization, yet joint ST pretraining is computationally costly and struggles with domain-specific spatial correlations. To address this, we propose FactoST, a factorized STFM that decouples universal temporal pretraining from ST adaptation. The first stage trains a space-agnostic backbone via multi-task learning to capture multifrequency, cross-domain temporal patterns at low cost. The second stage attaches an lightweight adapter that rapidly adapts the backbone to specific ST domains via metadata fusion, interaction pruning, domain alignment, and memory replay. Extensive forecasting experiments show that in few-shot settings, FactoST reduces MAE by up to 46.4% versus UniST, uses 46.2% fewer parameters, achieves 68% faster inference than OpenCity, and remains competitive with expert models. This factorized view offers a practical, scalable path toward truly universal STFMs.

The rapid growth of large AI models has raised significant environmental concerns due to their substantial carbon footprint. Existing carbon accounting methods for AI models are fundamentally deterministic and fail to account for inherent uncertainties in embodied and operational carbon emissions. Our work aims to investigate the effect of these uncertainties on embodied and operational carbon footprint estimates for large AI models. We propose a Probabilistic Carbon Accounting Model (PCAM), which quantifies uncertainties in the carbon accounting of large AI models. We develop parameter models to quantify key components (processors, memory, storage) in the carbon footprint of AI models. To characterize the distribution of the parameters, we develop a carbon dataset by aggregating related data from various sources. Then, we generate the probabilistic distribution of the parameters from the collected dataset. We compare the performance of PCAM with LLMCarbon, the state-of-the-art carbon accounting method for large AI models.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence.

Recent progress on Remote Sensing Foundation Models (RSFMs) aims toward universal representations for Earth observation imagery. However, current efforts often scale up in size significantly without addressing efficiency constraints critical for real-world applications (e.g., onboard processing, rapid disaster response) or treat multispectral (MS) data as generic imagery, overlooking valuable physical priors. We introduce PhySwin, a foundation model for MS data that integrates physical priors with computational efficiency. PhySwin combines three innovations: (i) physics-informed pretraining objectives leveraging radiometric constraints to enhance feature learning; (ii) an efficient MixMAE formulation tailored to SwinV2 for low-FLOP, scalable pretraining; and (iii) token-efficient spectral embedding to retain spectral detail without increasing token counts. Pretrained on over 1M Sentinel-2 tiles, PhySwin achieves SOTA results (+1.32% mIoU segmentation, +0.80% F1 change detection) while reducing inference latency by up to 14.4 and computational complexity by up to 43.6 compared to ViT-based RSFMs.