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AutoTimes: Autoregressive Time Series Forecasters via Large Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, Auto-Times can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and


Utilizing Image Transforms and Diffusion Models for Generative Modeling of Short and Long Time Series Ilan Naiman Nimrod Berman

Neural Information Processing Systems

Lately, there has been a surge in interest surrounding generative modeling of time series data. Most existing approaches are designed either to process short sequences or to handle long-range sequences. This dichotomy can be attributed to gradient issues with recurrent networks, computational costs associated with transformers, and limited expressiveness of state space models. Towards a unified generative model for varying-length time series, we propose in this work to transform sequences into images.



Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for uncertainty qua ntification, but its application to time-series data is constrained by the violati on of the exchangeability assumption. Current solutions for time-series prediction typically operate in the output space and rely on manually selected weights to addres s distribution drift, leading to overly conservative predictions. To enable dyna mic weight learning in the semantically rich latent space, we introduce a novel a pproach called Con-formalized Time Series with Semantic Features (CT -SSF). CT -SSF utilizes the inductive bias in deep representation learning to dynamica lly adjust weights, prioritizing semantic features relevant to the current predic tion. Theoretically, we show that CT -SSF surpasses previous methods defined in the ou tput space. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate tha t CT -SSF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOT A) conformal p rediction techniques in terms of prediction efficiency while maintaining a valid cov erage guarantee.





ElasTST: Towards Robust Varied-Horizon Forecasting with Elastic Time-Series Transformer

Neural Information Processing Systems

Despite the recent strides in crafting specific architectures for time-series forecasting and developing pre-trained universal models, a comprehensive examination of their capability in accommodating varied-horizon forecasting during inference is still lacking.