Earlier this month, under its "The Future of Everything" vertical, The Wall Street Journal reported how AI is improving the power grid. The Journal says artificial intelligence is "the key to keeping the lights on." The article explains how power companies are "turning to AI, drones, and sensors to curtail outages, save money, and help operate an increasingly complex electricity grid." Further, by doing so, they cut the recovery time from hurricane-related outages nearly in half in just a little over a decade. But these improvements are just the beginning of how artificial intelligence will manage the electricity grid of the future.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

We study the forecasting of the power consumptions of a population of households and of subpopulations thereof. These subpopulations are built according to location, to exogenous information and/or to profiles we determined from historical households consumption time series. Thus, we aim to forecast the electricity consumption time series at several levels of households aggregation. These time series are linked through some summation constraints which induce a hierarchy. Our approach consists in three steps: feature generation, aggregation and projection. Firstly (feature generation step), we build, for each considering group for households, a benchmark forecast (called features), using random forests or generalized additive models. Secondly (aggregation step), aggregation algorithms, run in parallel, aggregate these forecasts and provide new predictions. Finally (projection step), we use the summation constraints induced by the time series underlying hierarchy to re-conciliate the forecasts by projecting them in a well-chosen linear subspace. We provide some theoretical guaranties on the average prediction error of this methodology, through the minimization of a quantity called regret. We also test our approach on households power consumption data collected in Great Britain by multiple energy providers in the Energy Demand Research Project context. We build and compare various population segmentations for the evaluation of our approach performance.

Stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) is an efficient method for sampling from continuous distributions. It is a faster alternative to HMC: instead of using the whole dataset at each iteration, SGHMC uses only a subsample. This improves performance, but introduces bias that can cause SGHMC to converge to the wrong distribution. One can prevent this using a step size that decays to zero, but such a step size schedule can drastically slow down convergence. To address this tension, we propose a novel second-order SG-MCMC algorithm---AMAGOLD---that infrequently uses Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) corrections to remove bias. The infrequency of corrections amortizes their cost. We prove AMAGOLD converges to the target distribution with a fixed, rather than a diminishing, step size, and that its convergence rate is at most a constant factor slower than a full-batch baseline. We empirically demonstrate AMAGOLD's effectiveness on synthetic distributions, Bayesian logistic regression, and Bayesian neural networks.

In the present paper, we propose an extension of the Deep Planning Network (PlaNet), also referred to as PlaNet of the Bayesians (PlaNet-Bayes). There has been a growing demand in model predictive control (MPC) in partially observable environments in which complete information is unavailable because of, for example, lack of expensive sensors. PlaNet is a promising solution to realize such latent MPC, as it is used to train state-space models via model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and to conduct planning in the latent space. However, recent state-of-the-art strategies mentioned in MBRR literature, such as involving uncertainty into training and planning, have not been considered, significantly suppressing the training performance. The proposed extension is to make PlaNet uncertainty-aware on the basis of Bayesian inference, in which both model and action uncertainty are incorporated. Uncertainty in latent models is represented using a neural network ensemble to approximately infer model posteriors. The ensemble of optimal action candidates is also employed to capture multimodal uncertainty in the optimality. The concept of the action ensemble relies on a general variational inference MPC (VI-MPC) framework and its instance, probabilistic action ensemble with trajectory sampling (PaETS). In this paper, we extend VI-MPC and PaETS, which have been originally introduced in previous literature, to address partially observable cases. We experimentally compare the performances on continuous control tasks, and conclude that our method can consistently improve the asymptotic performance compared with PlaNet.

Quantum computing (QC) and deep learning techniques have attracted widespread attention in the recent years. This paper proposes QC-based deep learning methods for fault diagnosis that exploit their unique capabilities to overcome the computational challenges faced by conventional data-driven approaches performed on classical computers. Deep belief networks are integrated into the proposed fault diagnosis model and are used to extract features at different levels for normal and faulty process operations. The QC-based fault diagnosis model uses a quantum computing assisted generative training process followed by discriminative training to address the shortcomings of classical algorithms. To demonstrate its applicability and efficiency, the proposed fault diagnosis method is applied to process monitoring of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and Tennessee Eastman (TE) process. The proposed QC-based deep learning approach enjoys superior fault detection and diagnosis performance with obtained average fault detection rates of 79.2% and 99.39% for CSTR and TE process, respectively.

In this work, we propose a hybrid approach to synchronize large scale networks. In particular, we draw on Kalman Filtering (KF) along with time-stamps generated by the Precision Time Protocol (PTP) for pairwise node synchronization. Furthermore, we investigate the merit of Factor Graphs (FGs) along with Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm in achieving high precision end-to-end network synchronization. Finally, we present the idea of dividing the large-scale network into local synchronization domains, for each of which a suitable sync algorithm is utilized. The simulation results indicate that, despite the simplifications in the hybrid approach, the error in the offset estimation remains below 5 ns.

Accurate and reliable prediction of wind speed is a challenging task, because it depends on meteorological features of the surrounding region. In this work a novel Deep Ensemble Learning using Jet-like Architecture (DEL-Jet) approach is proposed. The proposed (DEL-Jet) technique is tested on wind speed prediction problem. As wind speed data is of the time series nature, so two Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in addition to a deep Auto-Encoder (AE) are used to extract the feature space from input data. Whereas, Non-linear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) is employed to further reduce the dimensionality of extracted feature space. Finally, reduced feature space along with original feature space are used to train the meta-regressor for forecasting final wind speed. To show the effectiveness of work, performance of the proposed DEL-Jet technique is evaluated for ten independent runs and compared against commonly used regressors.

The U.S. Energy Department earlier this month appointed former 3M Co. artificial-intelligence leader Cheryl Ingstad as the first director of its Artificial Intelligence and Technology Office, where she will oversee the DOE's AI activities. The mission of the AITO, which was formed in September 2019, is to coordinate the department's artificial-intelligence activities, which includes scaling AI projects across the DOE, sharing best practices and reducing duplicate projects. The office also is charged with facilitating partnerships...

In Part 3 of our series on how utilities are using artificial intelligence, we look at how AI amplifies analytics for grid operations. Duke Energy saved some $130 million in avoided costs by using predictive data analytics to identify problems before they caused equipment failures. A utility in Brazil estimates savings in the range of $420,000 USD each month through better, analytics-based theft detection. Because, as an article published by Forbes notes, "Machine learning is a continuation of the concepts around predictive analytics, with one key difference: The AI system is able to make assumptions, test and learn autonomously." With these enhancements, data science will become more powerful than ever, and utilities stand to gain.