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A Self-Evolving AI Agent System for Climate Science

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scientific progress in Earth science depends on integrating data across the planet's interconnected spheres. However, the accelerating volume and fragmentation of multi-sphere knowledge and data have surpassed human analytical capacity. This creates a major bottleneck for discovery, especially in climate science. To address this challenge, we introduce EarthLink, the first self-evolving AI agent system designed as an interactive "copilot" for Earth scientists. Through natural language interaction, EarthLink automates the entire research workflow by integrating planning, code execution, data analysis, and physical reasoning into a unified process that directly addresses this limitation. Beyond efficiency, it exhibits human-like cross-disciplinary analytical ability and achieves proficiency comparable to a junior researcher in expert evaluations on core large-scale climate tasks, including model-observation comparison and climate change understanding. When tasked with an open scientific problem, specifically the discovery of precursors of the Atlantic Niรฑo, EarthLink autonomously developed a research strategy, identified sources of predictability, verified its hypotheses with available data, and proposed a physically consistent mechanism. These emerging capabilities enable a new human-AI research paradigm. Scientists can focus on value and result judgments, while AI systems handle complex data analysis and knowledge integration. This accelerates the pace and breadth of discovery in Earth sciences. The system is accessible at our website https://earthlink.intern-ai.org.cn.


Agentic Large Language Models for Conceptual Systems Engineering and Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Early-stage engineering design involves complex, iterative reasoning, yet existing large language model (LLM) workflows struggle to maintain task continuity and generate executable models. We evaluate whether a structured multi-agent system (MAS) can more effectively manage requirements extraction, functional decomposition, and simulator code generation than a simpler two-agent system (2AS). The target application is a solar-powered water filtration system as described in a cahier des charges. We introduce the Design-State Graph (DSG), a JSON-serializable representation that bundles requirements, physical embodiments, and Python-based physics models into graph nodes. A nine-role MAS iteratively builds and refines the DSG, while the 2AS collapses the process to a Generator-Reflector loop. Both systems run a total of 60 experiments (2 LLMs - Llama 3.3 70B vs reasoning-distilled DeepSeek R1 70B x 2 agent configurations x 3 temperatures x 5 seeds). We report a JSON validity, requirement coverage, embodiment presence, code compatibility, workflow completion, runtime, and graph size. Across all runs, both MAS and 2AS maintained perfect JSON integrity and embodiment tagging. Requirement coverage remained minimal (less than 20%). Code compatibility peaked at 100% under specific 2AS settings but averaged below 50% for MAS. Only the reasoning-distilled model reliably flagged workflow completion. Powered by DeepSeek R1 70B, the MAS generated more granular DSGs (average 5-6 nodes) whereas 2AS mode-collapsed. Structured multi-agent orchestration enhanced design detail. Reasoning-distilled LLM improved completion rates, yet low requirements and fidelity gaps in coding persisted.


Event-RGB Fusion for Spacecraft Pose Estimation Under Harsh Lighting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spacecraft pose estimation is crucial for autonomous in-space operations, such as rendezvous, docking and on-orbit servicing. Vision-based pose estimation methods, which typically employ RGB imaging sensors, is a compelling solution for spacecraft pose estimation, but are challenged by harsh lighting conditions, which produce imaging artifacts such as glare, over-exposure, blooming and lens flare. Due to their much higher dynamic range, neuromorphic or event sensors are more resilient to extreme lighting conditions. However, event sensors generally have lower spatial resolution and suffer from reduced signal-to-noise ratio during periods of low relative motion. A beam-splitter prism was employed to achieve precise optical and temporal alignment. Then, a RANSAC-based technique was developed to fuse the information from the RGB and event channels to achieve pose estimation that leveraged the strengths of the two modalities. The pipeline was complemented by dropout uncertainty estimation to detect extreme conditions that affect either channel. To benchmark the performance of the proposed event-RGB fusion method, we collected a comprehensive real dataset of RGB and event data for satellite pose estimation in a laboratory setting under a variety of challenging illumination conditions. Encouraging results on the dataset demonstrate the efficacy of our event-RGB fusion approach and further supports the usage of event sensors for spacecraft pose estimation. To support community research on this topic, our dataset has been released publicly. Keywords: event-based pose estimation, rendezvous, domain gap, sensor fusion, close proximity, harsh lighting1. Introduction Spacecraft pose estimation is the problem of determining the 6-degrees-of-freedom (6DoF) pose consisting of the position and orientation of a space-borne object, typically a satellite. It is a critical step in a wide range of space applications, including rendezvous, close proximity operations, debris removal, refueling and on-orbit servicing [1, 2, 3, 4]. Robust pose estimation is paramount to safely and effectively executing these tasks [5, 6]. Several types of sensor technologies can be employed for spacecraft pose estimation, but they are all subject to size-weight-power and cost (SWaP-C) constraints. Optical sensors such as RGB imaging sensors are favored due to their low SWaP-C requirements, high resolution and the availability of established vision-based algorithms. However, operating in the space environment can present nontrivial challenges to vision-based systems.


Graph Neural Networks for Electricity Load Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting electricity demand is increasingly challenging as energy systems become more decentralized and intertwined with renewable sources. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm to model spatial dependencies in load data while accommodating complex non-stationarities. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with attention mechanisms and ensemble aggregation strategies to enhance both predictive accuracy and interpretability. Several GNN architectures -- including Graph Convolutional Networks, GraphSAGE, APPNP, and Graph Attention Networks -- are systematically evaluated on synthetic, regional (France), and fine-grained (UK) datasets. Empirical results demonstrate that graph-aware models consistently outperform conventional baselines such as Feed Forward Neural Networks and foundation models like TiREX. Furthermore, attention layers provide valuable insights into evolving spatial interactions driven by meteorological and seasonal dynamics. Ensemble aggregation, particularly through bottom-up expert combination, further improves robustness under heterogeneous data conditions. Overall, the study highlights the complementarity between structural modeling, interpretability, and robustness, and discusses the trade-offs between accuracy, model complexity, and transparency in graph-based electricity load forecasting.


Dimensionality Reduction on IoT Monitoring Data of Smart Building for Energy Consumption Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Internet of Things (IoT) plays a major role today in smart building infrastructures, from simple smart-home applications, to more sophisticated industrial type installations. The vast amounts of data generated from relevant systems can be processed in different ways revealing important information. This is especially true in the era of edge computing, when advanced data analysis and decision-making is gradually moving to the edge of the network where devices are generally characterised by low computing resources. In this context, one of the emerging main challenges is related to maintaining data analysis accuracy even with less data that can be efficiently handled by low resource devices. The present work focuses on correlation analysis of data retrieved from a pilot IoT network installation monitoring a small smart office by means of environmental and energy consumption sensors. The research motivation was to find statistical correlation between the monitoring variables that will allow the use of machine learning (ML) prediction algorithms for energy consumption reducing input parameters. For this to happen, a series of hypothesis tests for the correlation of three different environmental variables with the energy consumption were carried out. A total of ninety tests were performed, thirty for each pair of variables. In these tests, p-values showed the existence of strong or semi-strong correlation with two environmental variables, and of a weak correlation with a third one. Using the proposed methodology, we manage without examining the entire data set to exclude weak correlated variables while keeping the same score of accuracy.


Over-squashing in Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, recent theoretical advances have identified fundamental limitations in their information propagation capabilities, such as over-squashing, where distant nodes fail to effectively exchange information. While extensively studied in static contexts, this issue remains unexplored in Spatiotemporal GNNs (STGNNs), which process sequences associated with graph nodes. Nonetheless, the temporal dimension amplifies this challenge by increasing the information that must be propagated. In this work, we formalize the spatiotemporal over-squashing problem and demonstrate its distinct characteristics compared to the static case. Our analysis reveals that, counterintuitively, convolutional STGNNs favor information propagation from points temporally distant rather than close in time. Moreover, we prove that architectures that follow either time-and-space or time-then-space processing paradigms are equally affected by this phenomenon, providing theoretical justification for computationally efficient implementations. We validate our findings on synthetic and real-world datasets, providing deeper insights into their operational dynamics and principled guidance for more effective designs.


Geospatial Foundation Models to Enable Progress on Sustainable Development Goals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation Models (FMs) are large-scale, pre-trained artificial intelligence (AI) systems that have revolutionized natural language processing and computer vision, and are now advancing geospatial analysis and Earth Observation (EO). They promise improved generalization across tasks, scalability, and efficient adaptation with minimal labeled data. However, despite the rapid proliferation of geospatial FMs, their real-world utility and alignment with global sustainability goals remain underexplored. We introduce SustainFM, a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals with extremely diverse tasks ranging from asset wealth prediction to environmental hazard detection. This study provides a rigorous, interdisciplinary assessment of geospatial FMs and offers critical insights into their role in attaining sustainability goals. Our findings show: (1) While not universally superior, FMs often outperform traditional approaches across diverse tasks and datasets. (2) Evaluating FMs should go beyond accuracy to include transferability, generalization, and energy efficiency as key criteria for their responsible use. (3) FMs enable scalable, SDG-grounded solutions, offering broad utility for tackling complex sustainability challenges. Critically, we advocate for a paradigm shift from model-centric development to impact-driven deployment, and emphasize metrics such as energy efficiency, robustness to domain shifts, and ethical considerations.


TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.


Robotic Monitoring of Colorimetric Leaf Sensors for Precision Agriculture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Common remote sensing modalities (RGB, multi-spectral, hyperspectral imaging or LiDAR) are often used to indirectly measure crop health and do not directly capture plant stress indicators. Commercially available direct leaf sensors are bulky, powered electronics that are expensive and interfere with crop growth. In contrast, low-cost, passive and bio-degradable leaf sensors offer an opportunity to advance real-time monitoring as they directly interface with the crop surface while not interfering with crop growth. T o this end, we co-design a sensor-detector system, where the sensor is a passive colorimetric leaf sensor that directly measures crop health in a precision agriculture setting, and the detector autonomously obtains optical signals from these leaf sensors. The detector comprises a low size weight and power (SWaP) mobile ground robot with an onboard monocular RGB camera and object detector to localize each leaf sensor, as well as a hyperspectral camera with a motorized mirror and halogen light to acquire hyperspectral images. The sensor's crop health-dependent optical signals can be extracted from the hyperspectral images. The proof-of-concept system is demonstrated in row-crop environments both indoors and outdoors where it is able to autonomously navigate, locate and obtain a hyperspectral image of all leaf sensors present, and acquire interpretable spectral resonance with 80% accuracy within a required retrieval distance from the sensor . The growing global population mandates precision farming to meet increased food demands and reduce food waste [1].


Overspecified Mixture Discriminant Analysis: Exponential Convergence, Statistical Guarantees, and Remote Sensing Applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study explores the classification error of Mixture Discriminant Analysis (MDA) in scenarios where the number of mixture components exceeds those present in the actual data distribution, a condition known as overspecification. We use a two-component Gaussian mixture model within each class to fit data generated from a single Gaussian, analyzing both the algorithmic convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and the statistical classification error. We demonstrate that, with suitable initialization, the EM algorithm converges exponentially fast to the Bayes risk at the population level. Further, we extend our results to finite samples, showing that the classification error converges to Bayes risk with a rate $n^{-1/2}$ under mild conditions on the initial parameter estimates and sample size. This work provides a rigorous theoretical framework for understanding the performance of overspecified MDA, which is often used empirically in complex data settings, such as image and text classification. To validate our theory, we conduct experiments on remote sensing datasets.