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Uncertainty evaluation of segmentation models for Earth observation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates methods for estimating uncertainty in semantic segmentation predictions derived from satellite imagery. Estimating uncertainty for segmentation presents unique challenges compared to standard image classification, requiring scalable methods producing per-pixel estimates. While most research on this topic has focused on scene understanding or medical imaging, this work benchmarks existing methods specifically for remote sensing and Earth observation applications. Our evaluation focuses on the practical utility of uncertainty measures, testing their ability to identify prediction errors and noise-corrupted input image regions. Experiments are conducted on two remote sensing datasets, PASTIS and ForTy, selected for their differences in scale, geographic coverage, and label confidence. We perform an extensive evaluation featuring several models, such as Stochastic Segmentation Networks and ensembles, in combination with a number of neural architectures and uncertainty metrics. We make a number of practical recommendations based on our findings.


Energy-Efficient and Dequantization-Free Q-LLMs: A Spiking Neural Network Approach to Salient Value Mitigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of large language models (LLMs), weight-activation quantization helps fit models on edge device by reducing memory and compute bit-widths. However, three challenges persist for energy constrained hardware: (1) even after quantization, multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations remain unavoidable and continue to dominate energy consumption; (2) dequantization (or per-tensor/channel rescaling) introduces extra arithmetic and data movement, increasing latency and energy; (3) uniform parameters bit widths clip salient values-while intra-channel mixed precision is generally impractical on current matrix hardware and memory. In contrast, brain-inspired Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), owing to their binary spike-based information representation and the Integrate-and-Fire (IF) paradigm, naturally support mixed-precision storage and energy-efficient computation by replacing complex MACs with temporal Accumulate (ACCs). Motivated by this property, we propose SpikeQuant, which selectively applies mixed-precision quantization to activations with salient values and re-encodes them into binary spike counts, thereby enabling dynamic mixed storage of different bitwidths. Furthermore, by embedding the quantization scale into the threshold of the IF mechanism, our approach performs energy-efficient linear transformations on weights and activations while avoiding explicit dequantization. Experimental results demonstrate that SpikeQuant consistently achieves near-FP16 perplexity under W4A4 quantization while reducing energy cost by up to 4.6 times compared to existing methods, highlighting its effectiveness for accurate and energy-efficient LLM deployment.


Risk Assessment of an Autonomous Underwater Snake Robot in Confined Operations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing interest in ocean discovery imposes a need for inspection and intervention in confined and demanding environments. Eely's slender shape, in addition to its ability to change its body configurations, makes articulated underwater robots an adequate option for such environments. However, operation of Eely in such environments imposes demanding requirements on the system, as it must deal with uncertain and unstructured environments, extreme environmental conditions, and reduced navigational capabilities. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to assess the risks of losing Eely during two mission scenarios. The goal of this work is to improve Eely's performance and the likelihood of mission success. Sensitivity analysis results are presented in order to demonstrate the causes having the highest impact on losing Eely.


SORA-ATMAS: Adaptive Trust Management and Multi-LLM Aligned Governance for Future Smart Cities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid evolution of smart cities has increased the reliance on intelligent interconnected services to optimize infrastructure, resources, and citizen well-being. Agentic AI has emerged as a key enabler by supporting autonomous decision-making and adaptive coordination, allowing urban systems to respond in real time to dynamic conditions. Its benefits are evident in areas such as transportation, where the integration of traffic data, weather forecasts, and safety sensors enables dynamic rerouting and a faster response to hazards. However, its deployment across heterogeneous smart city ecosystems raises critical governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) challenges, including accountability, data privacy, and regulatory alignment within decentralized infrastructures. Evaluation of SORA-ATMAS with three domain agents (Weather, Traffic, and Safety) demonstrated that its governance policies, including a fallback mechanism for high-risk scenarios, effectively steer multiple LLMs (GPT, Grok, DeepSeek) towards domain-optimized, policy-aligned outputs, producing an average MAE reduction of 35% across agents. Results showed stable weather monitoring, effective handling of high-risk traffic plateaus 0.85, and adaptive trust regulation in Safety/Fire scenarios 0.65. Runtime profiling of a 3-agent deployment confirmed scalability, with throughput between 13.8-17.2 requests per second, execution times below 72~ms, and governance delays under 100 ms, analytical projections suggest maintained performance at larger scales. Cross-domain rules ensured safe interoperability, with traffic rerouting permitted only under validated weather conditions. These findings validate SORA-ATMAS as a regulation-aligned, context-aware, and verifiable governance framework that consolidates distributed agent outputs into accountable, real-time decisions, offering a resilient foundation for smart-city management.


Magnetic field estimation using Gaussian process regression for interactive wireless power system design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wireless power transfer (WPT) with coupled resonators offers a promising solution for the seamless powering of electronic devices. Interactive design approaches that visualize the magnetic field and power transfer efficiency based on system geometry adjustments can facilitate the understanding and exploration of the behavior of these systems for dynamic applications. However, typical electromagnetic field simulation methods, such as the Method of Moments (MoM), require significant computational resources, limiting the rate at which computation can be performed for acceptable interactivity. Furthermore, the system's sensitivity to positional and geometrical changes necessitates a large number of simulations, and structures such as ferromagnetic shields further complicate these simulations. Here, we introduce a machine learning approach using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), demonstrating for the first time the rapid estimation of the entire magnetic field and power transfer efficiency for near-field coupled systems. To achieve quick and accurate estimation, we develop 3D adaptive grid systems and an active learning strategy to effectively capture the nonlinear interactions between complex system geometries and magnetic fields. By training a regression model, our approach achieves magnetic field computation with sub-second latency and with an average error of less than 6% when validated against independent electromagnetic simulation results.


Synthesizability Prediction of Crystalline Structures with a Hierarchical Transformer and Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting which hypothetical inorganic crystals can be experimentally realized remains a central challenge in accelerating materials discovery. SyntheFormer is a positive-unlabeled framework that learns synthesizability directly from crystal structure, combining a Fourier-transformed crystal periodicity (FTCP) representation with hierarchical feature extraction, Random-Forest feature selection, and a compact deep MLP classifier. The model is trained on historical data from 2011 through 2018 and evaluated prospectively on future years from 2019 to 2025, where the positive class constitutes only 1.02 per cent of samples. Under this temporally separated evaluation, SyntheFormer achieves a test area under the ROC curve of 0.735 and, with dual-threshold calibration, attains high-recall screening with 97.6 per cent recall at 94.2 per cent coverage, which minimizes missed opportunities while preserving discriminative power. Crucially, the model recovers experimentally confirmed metastable compounds that lie far from the convex hull and simultaneously assigns low scores to many thermodynamically stable yet unsynthesized candidates, demonstrating that stability alone is insufficient to predict experimental attainability. By aligning structure-aware representation with uncertainty-aware decision rules, SyntheFormer provides a practical route to prioritize synthesis targets and focus laboratory effort on the most promising new inorganic materials.


Safe Active Navigation and Exploration for Planetary Environments Using Proprioceptive Measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Legged robots can sense terrain through force interactions during locomotion, offering more reliable traversability estimates than remote sensing and serving as scouts for guiding wheeled rovers in challenging environments. However, even legged scouts face challenges when traversing highly deformable or unstable terrain. We present Safe Active Exploration for Granular T errain (SAEGT), a navigation framework that enables legged robots to safely explore unknown granular environments using proprioceptive sensing, particularly where visual input fails to capture terrain deformability. SAEGT estimates the safe region and frontier region online from leg-terrain interactions using Gaussian Process regression for traversability assessment, with a reactive controller for real-time safe exploration and navigation. SAEGT demonstrated its ability to safely explore and navigate toward a specified goal using only proprioceptively estimated traversability in simulation.


Sample-Based Hybrid Mode Control: Asymptotically Optimal Switching of Algorithmic and Non-Differentiable Control Modes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- This paper investigates a sample-based solution to the hybrid mode control problem across non-differentiable and algorithmic hybrid modes. Our approach reasons about a set of hybrid control modes as an integer-based optimization problem where we select what mode to apply, when to switch to another mode, and the duration for which we are in a given control mode. A sample-based variation is derived to efficiently search the integer domain for optimal solutions. We find our formulation yields strong performance guarantees that can be applied to a number of robotics-related tasks. In addition, our approach is able to synthesize complex algorithms and policies to compound behaviors and achieve challenging tasks. Last, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in a real-world robotic examples that requires reactive switching between long-term planning and high-frequency control. I. INTRODUCTION Modern agile robotic systems must dynamically switch between discrete modes--such as making and breaking contacts--to synthesize complex behaviors like locomotion and manipulation.


Multi-Agent Design Assistant for the Simulation of Inertial Fusion Energy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inertial fusion energy promises nearly unlimited, clean power if it can be achieved. However, the design and engineering of fusion systems requires controlling and manipulating matter at extreme energies and timescales; the shock physics and radiation transport governing the physical behavior under these conditions are complex requiring the development, calibration, and use of predictive multiphysics codes to navigate the highly nonlinear and multi-faceted design landscape. We hypothesize that artificial intelligence reasoning models can be combined with physics codes and emulators to autonomously design fusion fuel capsules. In this article, we construct a multi-agent system where natural language is utilized to explore the complex physics regimes around fusion energy. The agentic system is capable of executing a high-order multiphysics inertial fusion computational code. We demonstrate the capacity of the multi-agent design assistant to both collaboratively and autonomously manipulate, navigate, and optimize capsule geometry while accounting for high fidelity physics that ultimately achieve simulated ignition via inverse design.


Feature-driven reinforcement learning for photovoltaic in continuous intraday trading

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Photovoltaic (PV) operators face substantial uncertainty in generation and short-term electricity prices. Continuous intraday markets enable producers to adjust their positions in real time, potentially improving revenues and reducing imbalance costs. We propose a feature-driven reinforcement learning (RL) approach for PV intraday trading that integrates data-driven features into the state and learns bidding policies in a sequential decision framework. The problem is cast as a Markov Decision Process with a reward that balances trading profit and imbalance penalties and is solved with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) using a predominantly linear, interpretable policy. Trained on historical market data and evaluated out-of-sample, the strategy consistently outperforms benchmark baselines across diverse scenarios. Extensive validation shows rapid convergence, real-time inference, and transparent decision rules. Learned weights highlight the central role of market microstructure and historical features. Taken together, these results indicate that feature-driven RL offers a practical, data-efficient, and operationally deployable pathway for active intraday participation by PV producers.