We use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the model-form uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the `mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct `confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of model-form uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

Low-precision arithmetic has had a transformative effect on the training of neural networks, reducing computation, memory and energy requirements. However, despite its promise, low-precision arithmetic has received little attention for Gaussian processes (GPs), largely because GPs require sophisticated linear algebra routines that are unstable in low-precision. We study the different failure modes that can occur when training GPs in half precision. To circumvent these failure modes, we propose a multi-faceted approach involving conjugate gradients with re-orthogonalization, mixed precision, and preconditioning. Our approach significantly improves the numerical stability and practical performance of conjugate gradients in low-precision over a wide range of settings, enabling GPs to train on $1.8$ million data points in $10$ hours on a single GPU, without any sparse approximations.

Top quarks, produced in large numbers at the Large Hadron Collider, have a complex detector signature and require special reconstruction techniques. The most common decay mode, the "all-jet" channel, results in a 6-jet final state which is particularly difficult to reconstruct in $pp$ collisions due to the large number of permutations possible. We present a novel approach to this class of problem, based on neural networks using a generalized attention mechanism, that we call Symmetry Preserving Attention Networks (SPA-Net). We train one such network to identify the decay products of each top quark unambiguously and without combinatorial explosion as an example of the power of this technique.This approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, correctly assigning all jets in $93.0%$ of $6$-jet, $87.8%$ of $7$-jet, and $82.6%$ of $\geq 8$-jet events respectively.

The cotton boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman is a serious pest to the U.S. cotton industry that has cost more than 16 billion USD in damages since it entered the United States from Mexico in the late 1800s. This pest has been nearly eradicated; however, southern part of Texas still faces this issue and is always prone to the pest reinfestation each year due to its sub-tropical climate where cotton plants can grow year-round. Volunteer cotton (VC) plants growing in the fields of inter-seasonal crops, like corn, can serve as hosts to these pests once they reach pin-head square stage (5-6 leaf stage) and therefore need to be detected, located, and destroyed or sprayed . In this paper, we present a study to detect VC plants in a corn field using YOLOv3 on three band aerial images collected by unmanned aircraft system (UAS). The two-fold objectives of this paper were : (i) to determine whether YOLOv3 can be used for VC detection in a corn field using RGB (red, green, and blue) aerial images collected by UAS and (ii) to investigate the behavior of YOLOv3 on images at three different scales (320 x 320, S1; 416 x 416, S2; and 512 x 512, S3 pixels) based on average precision (AP), mean average precision (mAP) and F1-score at 95% confidence level. No significant differences existed for mAP among the three scales, while a significant difference was found for AP between S1 and S3 (p = 0.04) and S2 and S3 (p = 0.02). A significant difference was also found for F1-score between S2 and S3 (p = 0.02). The lack of significant differences of mAP at all the three scales indicated that the trained YOLOv3 model can be used on a computer vision-based remotely piloted aerial application system (RPAAS) for VC detection and spray application in near real-time.

Deep decarbonization of the energy sector will require massive penetration of stochastic renewable energy resources and an enormous amount of grid asset coordination; this represents a challenging paradigm for the power system operators who are tasked with maintaining grid stability and security in the face of such changes. With its ability to learn from complex datasets and provide predictive solutions on fast timescales, machine learning (ML) is well-posed to help overcome these challenges as power systems transform in the coming decades. In this work, we outline five key challenges (dataset generation, data pre-processing, model training, model assessment, and model embedding) associated with building trustworthy ML models which learn from physics-based simulation data. We then demonstrate how linking together individual modules, each of which overcomes a respective challenge, at sequential stages in the machine learning pipeline can help enhance the overall performance of the training process. In particular, we implement methods that connect different elements of the learning pipeline through feedback, thus "closing the loop" between model training, performance assessments, and re-training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework, its constituent modules, and its feedback connections by learning the N-1 small-signal stability margin associated with a detailed model of a proposed North Sea Wind Power Hub system.

This paper introduces a framework to capture previously intractable optimization constraints and transform them to a mixed-integer linear program, through the use of neural networks. We encode the feasible space of optimization problems characterized by both tractable and intractable constraints, e.g. differential equations, to a neural network. Leveraging an exact mixed-integer reformulation of neural networks, we solve mixed-integer linear programs that accurately approximate solutions to the originally intractable non-linear optimization problem. We apply our methods to the AC optimal power flow problem (AC-OPF), where directly including dynamic security constraints renders the AC-OPF intractable. Our proposed approach has the potential to be significantly more scalable than traditional approaches. We demonstrate our approach for power system operation considering N-1 security and small-signal stability, showing how it can efficiently obtain cost-optimal solutions which at the same time satisfy both static and dynamic security constraints.

Time series forecasting has widespread applications in urban life ranging from air quality monitoring to traffic analysis. However, accurate time series forecasting is challenging because real-world time series suffer from the distribution shift problem, where their statistical properties change over time. Despite extensive solutions to distribution shifts in domain adaptation or generalization, they fail to function effectively in unknown, constantly-changing distribution shifts, which are common in time series. In this paper, we propose Hyper Time- Series Forecasting (HTSF), a hypernetwork-based framework for accurate time series forecasting under distribution shift. HTSF jointly learns the time-varying distributions and the corresponding forecasting models in an end-to-end fashion. Specifically, HTSF exploits the hyper layers to learn the best characterization of the distribution shifts, generating the model parameters for the main layers to make accurate predictions. We implement HTSF as an extensible framework that can incorporate diverse time series forecasting models such as RNNs and Transformers. Extensive experiments on 9 benchmarks demonstrate that HTSF achieves state-of-the-art performances.

Standing on the outskirts of Oakland, California, Attila Toth takes in the nearby forested hills. The CEO looks out on what locals call "The Town" and, in the distance, San Francisco, or "The City." Close by, Toth sees tangles of redwood, eucalyptus and oak trees – and the wildfire risk they pose. This "wildland-urban interface" isn't far from the site of the 1991 Oakland Hills Fire, which flared up suddenly in a heavily residential area. Over four days, 3,000 thousand homes were destroyed in one of the city's wealthiest neighborhoods, causing an estimated $1.5 billion in damages ($3.2 billion in today's dollars).

New robots that think and act for themselves are set to be deployed to some of the most hazardous places on Earth and outer space. As well as being sent across the universe, the AI-powered machines will be deployed in nuclear fusion power, the offshore energy sector and agriculture closer to home. The University of Manchester team developing them say the super machines will "need to act independently" of humans to carry out highly complex tasks in danger zones. The team says the technology, which they call "hot robotics", will help the United Kingdom maintain its competitive advantage in automation technologies. They also hope robots will become more autonomous so they can decommission old nuclear power stations more cheaply, quickly and safely than they can do at present.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, fired three drones toward Israeli gas rigs this month in an area of the eastern Mediterranean claimed by Lebanon. Israeli officials said that the drones, which were quickly intercepted, did not carry arms of any kind and that they were launched only to show that Hezbollah is able to reach a point considered strategic and sensitive. The Israeli defense establishment has sophisticated air-defense mechanisms capable of intercepting rockets fired by enemies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Israel also has a complex system of sensors able to detect tunnels that Palestinian and Lebanese militants sometimes dig under Israel's borders. But those defenses are relatively inefficient against the drone.