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A POMDP Model for Safe Geological Carbon Sequestration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Geological carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), where CO$_2$ is stored in subsurface formations, is a promising and scalable approach for reducing global emissions. However, if done incorrectly, it may lead to earthquakes and leakage of CO$_2$ back to the surface, harming both humans and the environment. These risks are exacerbated by the large amount of uncertainty in the structure of the storage formation. For these reasons, we propose that CCS operations be modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and decisions be informed using automated planning algorithms. To this end, we develop a simplified model of CCS operations based on a 2D spillpoint analysis that retains many of the challenges and safety considerations of the real-world problem. We show how off-the-shelf POMDP solvers outperform expert baselines for safe CCS planning. This POMDP model can be used as a test bed to drive the development of novel decision-making algorithms for CCS operations.


$\texttt{Mangrove}$: Learning Galaxy Properties from Merger Trees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficiently mapping baryonic properties onto dark matter is a major challenge in astrophysics. Although semi-analytic models (SAMs) and hydrodynamical simulations have made impressive advances in reproducing galaxy observables across cosmologically significant volumes, these methods still require significant computation times, representing a barrier to many applications. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently proven to be the natural choice for learning physical relations. Among the most inherently graph-like structures found in astrophysics are the dark matter merger trees that encode the evolution of dark matter halos. In this paper we introduce a new, graph-based emulator framework, $\texttt{Mangrove}$, and show that it emulates the galactic stellar mass, cold gas mass and metallicity, instantaneous and time-averaged star formation rate, and black hole mass -- as predicted by a SAM -- with root mean squared error up to two times lower than other methods across a $(75 Mpc/h)^3$ simulation box in 40 seconds, 4 orders of magnitude faster than the SAM. We show that $\texttt{Mangrove}$ allows for quantification of the dependence of galaxy properties on merger history. We compare our results to the current state of the art in the field and show significant improvements for all target properties. $\texttt{Mangrove}$ is publicly available.


How Bad is Selfish Driving? Bounding the Inefficiency of Equilibria in Urban Driving Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the interaction among agents engaging in a driving task and we model it as general-sum game. This class of games exhibits a plurality of different equilibria posing the issue of equilibrium selection. While selecting the most efficient equilibrium (in term of social cost) is often impractical from a computational standpoint, in this work we study the (in)efficiency of any equilibrium players might agree to play. More specifically, we bound the equilibrium inefficiency by modeling driving games as particular type of congestion games over spatio-temporal resources. We obtain novel guarantees that refine existing bounds on the Price of Anarchy (PoA) as a function of problem-dependent game parameters. For instance, the relative trade-off between proximity costs and personal objectives such as comfort and progress. Although the obtained guarantees concern open-loop trajectories, we observe efficient equilibria even when agents employ closed-loop policies trained via decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning.


Optimal activity and battery scheduling algorithm using load and solar generation forecasts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Energy usage optimal scheduling has attracted great attention in the power system community, where various methodologies have been proposed. However, in real-world applications, the optimal scheduling problems require reliable energy forecasting, which is scarcely discussed as a joint solution to the scheduling problem. The 5\textsuperscript{th} IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) competition raised a practical problem of decreasing the electricity bill by scheduling building activities, where forecasting the solar energy generation and building consumption is a necessity. To solve this problem, we propose a technical sequence for tackling the solar PV and demand forecast and optimal scheduling problems, where solar generation prediction methods and an optimal university lectures scheduling algorithm are proposed.


Offline congestion games: How feedback type affects data coverage requirement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates when one can efficiently recover an approximate Nash Equilibrium (NE) in offline congestion games.The existing dataset coverage assumption in offline general-sum games inevitably incurs a dependency on the number of actions, which can be exponentially large in congestion games. We consider three different types of feedback with decreasing revealed information. Starting from the facility-level (a.k.a., semi-bandit) feedback, we propose a novel one-unit deviation coverage condition and give a pessimism-type algorithm that can recover an approximate NE. For the agent-level (a.k.a., bandit) feedback setting, interestingly, we show the one-unit deviation coverage condition is not sufficient. On the other hand, we convert the game to multi-agent linear bandits and show that with a generalized data coverage assumption in offline linear bandits, we can efficiently recover the approximate NE. Lastly, we consider a novel type of feedback, the game-level feedback where only the total reward from all agents is revealed. Again, we show the coverage assumption for the agent-level feedback setting is insufficient in the game-level feedback setting, and with a stronger version of the data coverage assumption for linear bandits, we can recover an approximate NE. Together, our results constitute the first study of offline congestion games and imply formal separations between different types of feedback.


Energy Pricing in P2P Energy Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increase in renewable energy on the consumer side gives place to new dynamics in the energy grids. Participants in a microgrid can produce energy and trade it with their peers (peer-to-peer) with the permission of the energy provider. In such a scenario, the stochastic nature of distributed renewable energy generators and energy consumption increases the complexity of defining fair prices for buying and selling energy. In this study, we introduce a reinforcement learning framework to help solve this issue by training an agent to set the prices that maximize the profit of all components in the microgrid, aiming to facilitate the implementation of P2P grids in real-life scenarios. The microgrid considers consumers, prosumers, the service provider, and a community battery. Experimental results on the \textit{Pymgrid} dataset show a successful approach to price optimization for all components in the microgrid. The proposed framework ensures flexibility to account for the interest of these components, as well as the ratio of consumers and prosumers in the microgrid. The results also examine the effect of changing the capacity of the community battery on the profit of the system. The implementation code is available \href{https://github.com/Artifitialleap-MBZUAI/rl-p2p-price-prediction}{here}.


Spiking Variational Graph Auto-Encoders for Efficient Graph Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph representation learning is a fundamental research issue and benefits a wide range of applications on graph-structured data. Conventional artificial neural network-based methods such as graph neural networks (GNNs) and variational graph auto-encoders (VGAEs) have achieved promising results in learning on graphs, but they suffer from extremely high energy consumption during training and inference stages. Inspired by the bio-fidelity and energy-efficiency of spiking neural networks (SNNs), recent methods attempt to adapt GNNs to the SNN framework by substituting spiking neurons for the activation functions. However, existing SNN-based GNN methods cannot be applied to the more general multi-node representation learning problem represented by link prediction. Moreover, these methods did not fully exploit the bio-fidelity of SNNs, as they still require costly multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations, which severely harm the energy efficiency. To address the above issues and improve energy efficiency, in this paper, we propose an SNN-based deep generative method, namely the Spiking Variational Graph Auto-Encoders (S-VGAE) for efficient graph representation learning. To deal with the multi-node problem, we propose a probabilistic decoder that generates binary latent variables as spiking node representations and reconstructs graphs via the weighted inner product. To avoid the MAC operations for energy efficiency, we further decouple the propagation and transformation layers of conventional GNN aggregators. We conduct link prediction experiments on multiple benchmark graph datasets, and the results demonstrate that our model consumes significantly lower energy with the performances superior or comparable to other ANN- and SNN-based methods for graph representation learning.


Novelty Detection in Time Series via Weak Innovations Representation: A Deep Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider novelty detection in time series with unknown and nonparametric probability structures. A deep learning approach is proposed to causally extract an innovations sequence consisting of novelty samples statistically independent of all past samples of the time series. A novelty detection algorithm is developed for the online detection of novel changes in the probability structure in the innovations sequence. A minimax optimality under a Bayes risk measure is established for the proposed novelty detection method, and its robustness and efficacy are demonstrated in experiments using real and synthetic datasets.


Bayesian Inference with Latent Hamiltonian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) which automatically decides the end time of the Hamiltonian trajectory. However, HMC and NUTS can require numerous numerical gradients of the target density, and can prove slow in practice. We propose Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) with HMC and NUTS for solving Bayesian inference problems. Once trained, HNNs do not require numerical gradients of the target density during sampling. Moreover, they satisfy important properties such as perfect time reversibility and Hamiltonian conservation, making them well-suited for use within HMC and NUTS because stationarity can be shown. We also propose an HNN extension called latent HNNs (L-HNNs), which are capable of predicting latent variable outputs. Compared to HNNs, L-HNNs offer improved expressivity and reduced integration errors. Finally, we employ L-HNNs in NUTS with an online error monitoring scheme to prevent sample degeneracy in regions of low probability density. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring on several examples involving complex, heavy-tailed, and high-local-curvature probability densities. Overall, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring satisfactorily inferred these probability densities. Compared to traditional NUTS, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring required 1--2 orders of magnitude fewer numerical gradients of the target density and improved the effective sample size (ESS) per gradient by an order of magnitude.


Pre-training via Denoising for Molecular Property Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Work done during an internship at DeepMind. Many important problems involving molecular property prediction from 3D structures have limited data, posing a generalization challenge for neural networks. In this paper, we describe a pre-training technique based on denoising that achieves a new state-of-the-art in molecular property prediction by utilizing large datasets of 3D molecular structures at equilibrium to learn meaningful representations for downstream tasks. Relying on the well-known link between denoising autoencoders and score-matching, we show that the denoising objective corresponds to learning a molecular force field - arising from approximating the Boltzmann distribution with a mixture of Gaussians - directly from equilibrium structures. Our experiments demonstrate that using this pre-training objective significantly improves performance on multiple benchmarks, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the majority of targets in the widely used QM9 dataset. Our analysis then provides practical insights into the effects of different factors - dataset sizes, model size and architecture, and the choice of upstream and downstream datasets - on pre-training. The success of the best performing neural networks in vision and natural language processing (NLP) relies on pre-training the models on large datasets to learn meaningful features for downstream tasks (Dai & Le, 2015; Simonyan & Zisserman, 2014; Devlin et al., 2018; Brown et al., 2020; Dosovitskiy et al., 2020). For example, none of the best models on the widely used QM9 benchmark use any form of pre-training (e.g. Effective methods for pre-training could have a significant impact on fields such as drug discovery and material science. In this work, we focus on the problem of how large datasets of 3D molecular structures can be utilized to improve performance on downstream molecular property prediction tasks that also rely on 3D structures as input. Our answer is a form of self-supervised pre-training that generates useful representations for downstream prediction tasks, leading to state-of-the-art (SOTA) results. Inspired by recent advances in noise regularization for graph neural networks (GNNs) (Godwin et al., 2022), our pre-training objective is based on denoising in the space of structures (and is hence self-supervised). Unlike existing pre-training methods, which largely focus on 2D graphs, our approach targets the setting where the downstream task involves 3D point clouds defining the molecular structure.