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A Brief Introduction to Kalman Filters - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

Can you measure the temperature inside the core of a nuclear reactor to make sure the nuclear reaction is controlled? It certainly is too hot for any thermostat manufactured to date. The closest one can go is to measure the temperature of a surface close to the core and estimate the temperature inside it. Let us consider another example to internalize this concept where direct measurement of a phenomenon is not possible – can you measure the exact position of a flying object using radar technology considering variable air density, wind direction, and wind speed? What if the wind changed direction?


Universal Early Warning Signals of Phase Transitions in Climate Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is quite difficult. This has led to the development of an alternative suite of methods that seek to identify signatures of critical phenomena in data, which are expected to occur in advance of many classes of dynamical bifurcation. Crucially, the manifestations of these critical phenomena are generic across a variety of systems, meaning that data-intensive deep learning methods can be trained on (abundant) synthetic data and plausibly prove effective when transferred to (more limited) empirical data sets. This paper provides a proof of concept for this approach as applied to lattice phase transitions: a deep neural network trained exclusively on 2D Ising model phase transitions is tested on a number of real and simulated climate systems with considerable success. Its accuracy frequently surpasses that of conventional statistical indicators, with performance shown to be consistently improved by the inclusion of spatial indicators. Tools such as this may offer valuable insight into climate tipping events, as remote sensing measurements provide increasingly abundant data on complex geospatially-resolved Earth systems.


Efficient Learning of Voltage Control Strategies via Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results in model-free DRL-based methods for power systems, but model-free methods suffer from poor sample efficiency and training time, both critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. And it is desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based-DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model, instead of a real-world power-grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized with the policy learning framework, making the process faster and sample efficient. However, stabilizing model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We solved these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step surrogate loss. Finally, we achieved 97.5% sample efficiency and 87.7% training efficiency for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.


Indoor room Occupancy Counting based on LSTM and Environmental Sensor

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper realizes the estimation of classroom occupancy by using the CO2 sensor and deep learning technique named Long-Short-Term Memory. As a case of connection with IoT and machine learning, I achieve the model to estimate the people number in the classroom based on the environmental data exported from the CO2 sensor, I also evaluate the performance of the model to show the feasibility to apply our module to the real environment.


Multitask Vision-Language Prompt Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prompt Tuning, conditioning on task-specific learned prompt vectors, has emerged as a data-efficient and parameter-efficient method for adapting large pretrained vision-language models to multiple downstream tasks. However, existing approaches usually consider learning prompt vectors for each task independently from scratch, thereby failing to exploit the rich shareable knowledge across different vision-language tasks. In this paper, we propose multitask vision-language prompt tuning (MVLPT), which incorporates cross-task knowledge into prompt tuning for vision-language models. Specifically, (i) we demonstrate the effectiveness of learning a single transferable prompt from multiple source tasks to initialize the prompt for each target task; (ii) we show many target tasks can benefit each other from sharing prompt vectors and thus can be jointly learned via multitask prompt tuning. We benchmark the proposed MVLPT using three representative prompt tuning methods, namely text prompt tuning, visual prompt tuning, and the unified vision-language prompt tuning. Results in 20 vision tasks demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms all single-task baseline prompt tuning methods, setting the new state-of-the-art on the few-shot ELEVATER benchmarks and cross-task generalization benchmarks. To understand where the cross-task knowledge is most effective, we also conduct a large-scale study on task transferability with 20 vision tasks in 400 combinations for each prompt tuning method. It shows that the most performant MVLPT for each prompt tuning method prefers different task combinations and many tasks can benefit each other, depending on their visual similarity and label similarity. Code is available at https://github.com/sIncerass/MVLPT.


Anomaly Detection in Power Markets and Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread use of information and communication technology (ICT) over the course of the last decades has been a primary catalyst behind the digitalization of power systems. Meanwhile, as the utilization rate of the Internet of Things (IoT) continues to rise along with recent advancements in ICT, the need for secure and computationally efficient monitoring of critical infrastructures like the electrical grid and the agents that participate in it is growing. A cyber-physical system, such as the electrical grid, may experience anomalies for a number of different reasons. These may include physical defects, mistakes in measurement and communication, cyberattacks, and other similar occurrences. The goal of this study is to emphasize what the most common incidents are with power systems and to give an overview and classification of the most common ways to find problems, starting with the consumer/prosumer end working up to the primary power producers. In addition, this article aimed to discuss the methods and techniques, such as artificial intelligence (AI) that are used to identify anomalies in the power systems and markets.


MapInWild: A Remote Sensing Dataset to Address the Question What Makes Nature Wild

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

I. INTRODUCTION The advancement in deep learning (DL) techniques has led to a notable increase in the number and size of annotated datasets in a variety of domains, with remote sensing (RS) being no exception [1]. Also, an increase in earth observation (EO) missions and easy access to globally available and free geodata have opened up new research opportunities. Although numerous RS datasets have been published in the past years [2]-[6], most of them addressed tasks concerning man-made environments such as building footprint extraction and road network classification, leaving the environmental and ecology-related sub-areas of remote sensing underrepresented. The ESA WorldCover map legend is given below the figure. In this community, the classification task can be machine learning model in the form of deep neural networks. While some methods frame the RS-related classification (usually called semantic segmentation by tasks within the context of perturbation-seeking generative the computer vision community) the task outputs denselyannotated adversarial networks [14], some others made use of uncertainty prediction maps on a pixel scale by separating the estimation applied to deep ensembles [15] and self-attention input into distinct and semantically coherent segments.


Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning with multi-location data: training models locally, globally or via transfer learning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solar forecasting from ground-based sky images has shown great promise in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. With more and more sky image datasets open sourced in recent years, the development of accurate and reliable deep learning-based solar forecasting methods has seen a huge growth in potential. In this study, we explore three different training strategies for solar forecasting models by leveraging three heterogeneous datasets collected globally with different climate patterns. Specifically, we compare the performance of local models trained individually based on single datasets and global models trained jointly based on the fusion of multiple datasets, and further examine the knowledge transfer from pre-trained solar forecasting models to a new dataset of interest. The results suggest that the local models work well when deployed locally, but significant errors are observed when applied offsite. The global model can adapt well to individual locations at the cost of a potential increase in training efforts. Pre-training models on a large and diversified source dataset and transferring to a target dataset generally achieves superior performance over the other two strategies. With 80% less training data, it can achieve comparable performance as the local baseline trained using the entire dataset.


Solar Power Prediction using SARIMA, XGBoost and CNN-LSTM

#artificialintelligence

The purpose of this post is to show how the application of data science methodologies can be used to solve problems within the renewable energy sector. I will discuss techniques to gain tangible value from a dataset by using hypothesis testing, feature engineering, time-series modelling methods and much more. I will also address issues such as data leakage and data preparation for different time series models and they can be managed. The energy sector has seen a rise in harnessing renewable energy to provide homes with electricity, however, whether it be on a large scale or for domestic use, the problems remain the same. Power plants which provide electricity sourced from renewable sources, face the difficulty of intermittency and need constant maintenance.


Winning the CityLearn Challenge: Adaptive Optimization with Evolutionary Search under Trajectory-based Guidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern power systems will have to face difficult challenges in the years to come: frequent blackouts in urban areas caused by high power demand peaks, grid instability exacerbated by intermittent renewable generation, and global climate change amplified by rising carbon emissions. While current practices are growingly inadequate, the path to widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) methods is hindered by missing aspects of trustworthiness. The CityLearn Challenge is an exemplary opportunity for researchers from multiple disciplines to investigate the potential of AI to tackle these pressing issues in the energy domain, collectively modeled as a reinforcement learning (RL) task. Multiple real-world challenges faced by contemporary RL techniques are embodied in the problem formulation. In this paper, we present a novel method using the solution function of optimization as policies to compute actions for sequential decision-making, while notably adapting the parameters of the optimization model from online observations. Algorithmically, this is achieved by an evolutionary algorithm under a novel trajectory-based guidance scheme. Formally, the global convergence property is established. Our agent ranked first in the latest 2021 CityLearn Challenge, being able to achieve superior performance in almost all metrics while maintaining some key aspects of interpretability.