Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data--what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery. Keywords: Earth observation; Causal inference; Neighborhood dynamics Word count: 12,207 Note: This work largely subsumes Jerzak, Connor T., Fredrik Johansson, and Adel Daoud.

A core task in precision agriculture is the identification of climatic and ecological conditions that are advantageous for a given crop. The most succinct approach is geolocation, which is concerned with locating the native region of a given sample based on its genetic makeup. Here, we investigate genomic geolocation of Populus trichocarpa, or poplar, which has been identified by the US Department of Energy as a fast-rotation biofuel crop to be harvested nationwide. In particular, we approach geolocation from a reference-free perspective, circumventing the need for compute-intensive processes such as variant calling and alignment. Our model, MashNet, predicts latitude and longitude for poplar trees from randomly-sampled, unaligned sequence fragments. We show that our model performs comparably to Locator, a state-of-the-art method based on aligned whole-genome sequence data. MashNet achieves an error of 34.0 km^2 compared to Locator's 22.1 km^2. MashNet allows growers to quickly and efficiently identify natural varieties that will be most productive in their growth environment based on genotype. This paper explores geolocation for precision agriculture while providing a framework and data source for further development by the machine learning community.

Soiling is the accumulation of dirt in solar panels which leads to a decreasing trend in solar energy yield and may be the cause of vast revenue losses. The effect of soiling can be reduced by washing the panels, which is, however, a procedure of non-negligible cost. Moreover, soiling monitoring systems are often unreliable or very costly. We study the problem of estimating the soiling ratio in photo-voltaic (PV) modules, i.e., the ratio of the real power output to the power output that would be produced if solar panels were clean. A key advantage of our algorithms is that they estimate soiling, without needing to train on labelled data, i.e., periods of explicitly monitoring the soiling in each park, and without relying on generic analytical formulas which do not take into account the peculiarities of each installation. We consider as input a time series comprising a minimum set of measurements, that are available to most PV park operators. Our experimental evaluation shows that we significantly outperform current state-of-the-art methods for estimating soiling ratio.

This work describes experiments on thermal dynamics of pure H2O excited by hydrodynamic cavitation, which has been reported to facilitate the spin conversion of para- and ortho-isomers at water interfaces. Previous measurements by NMR and capillary methods of excited samples demonstrated changes of proton density by 12-15%, the surface tension up to 15.7%, which can be attributed to a non-equilibrium para-/ortho- ratio. Beside these changes, we also expect a variation of heat capacity. Experiments use a differential calorimetric approach with two devices: one with an active thermostat for diathermic measurements, another is fully passive for long-term measurements. Samples after excitation are degassed at -0.09MPa and thermally equalized in a water bath. Conducted attempts demonstrated changes in the heat capacity of experimental samples by 4.17%--5.72% measured in the transient dynamics within 60 min after excitation, which decreases to 2.08% in the steady-state dynamics 90-120 min after excitation. Additionally, we observed occurrence of thermal fluctuations at the level of 10^-3 C relative temperature on 20-40 min mesoscale dynamics and a long-term increase of such fluctuations in experimental samples. Obtained results are reproducible in both devices and are supported by previously published outcomes on four-photon scattering spectra in the range from -1.5 to 1.5 cm^-1 and electrochemical reactivity in CO2 and H2O2 pathways. Based on these results, we propose a hypothesis about ongoing spin conversion process on mesoscopic scales under weak influx of energy caused by thermal, EM or geomagnetic factors; this enables explaining electrochemical and thermal anomalies observed in long-term measurements.

Deep Q-learning based algorithms have been applied successfully in many decision making problems, while their theoretical foundations are not as well understood. In this paper, we study a Fitted Q-Iteration with two-layer ReLU neural network parameterization, and find the sample complexity guarantees for the algorithm. Our approach estimates the Q-function in each iteration using a convex optimization problem. We show that this approach achieves a sample complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon^{2})$, which is order-optimal. This result holds for a countable state-spaces and does not require any assumptions such as a linear or low rank structure on the MDP.

Existing dialogue modeling methods have achieved promising performance on various dialogue tasks with the aid of Transformer and the large-scale pre-trained language models. However, some recent studies revealed that the context representations produced by these methods suffer the problem of anisotropy. In this paper, we find that the generated representations are also not conversational, losing the conversation structure information during the context modeling stage. To this end, we identify two properties in dialogue modeling, i.e., locality and isotropy, and present a simple method for dialogue representation calibration, namely SimDRC, to build isotropic and conversational feature spaces. Experimental results show that our approach significantly outperforms current stateof-the-art models on three open-domain dialogue tasks with eight benchmarks across both automatic and human evaluation metrics. More in-depth analyses further confirm the effectiveness of our proposed approach. Dialogue modeling (Serban et al., 2016; Mehri et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2021) is to encode the raw text of the input dialogue to the contextual representations. Although the Transformer-based dialogue modeling methods (Hosseini-Asl et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2021) have achieved great success on various dialogue tasks, there are still some impediments in these methods that are not well explored nowadays. Specifically, recent studies (Ethayarajh, 2019; Su et al., 2022) have revealed that on dialogue generation tasks, the representations produced by existing dialogue modeling methods are anisotropic, i.e. features occupy a narrow cone in the vector space, thus leading to the problem of degeneration. To alleviate this problem, previous solutions (e.g. SimCTG) (Su et al., 2021; 2022) encourage the model to learn isotropic token embeddings by pushing away the representations of distinct tokens. While building the more discriminative and isotropic feature space, these methods still ignore learning dialogue-specific features, such as inter-speaker correlations and conversational structure information, in the dialogue modeling stage.

Motivated by the success of Bayesian optimisation algorithms in the Euclidean space, we propose a novel approach to construct Intrinsic Bayesian optimisation (In-BO) on manifolds with a primary focus on complex constrained domains or irregular-shaped spaces arising as submanifolds of R2, R3 and beyond. Data may be collected in a spatial domain but restricted to a complex or intricately structured region corresponding to a geographic feature, such as lakes. Traditional Bayesian Optimisation (Tra-BO) defined with a Radial basis function (RBF) kernel cannot accommodate these complex constrained conditions. The In-BO uses the Sparse Intrinsic Gaussian Processes (SIn-GP) surrogate model to take into account the geometric structure of the manifold. SInGPs are constructed using the heat kernel of the manifold which is estimated as the transition density of the Brownian Motion on manifolds. The efficiency of In-BO is demonstrated through simulation studies on a U-shaped domain, a Bitten torus, and a real dataset from the Aral sea. Its performance is compared to that of traditional BO, which is defined in Euclidean space.

Mobility is a key factor in urban life and transport network plays a vital role in mobility. Worse transport network having less mobility is one of the key reasons to decline the living standard in any unplanned mega city. Transport mobility enhancement in an unplanned mega city is always challenging due to various constraints including complex design and high cost involvement. The aim of this thesis is to enhance transport mobility in a megacity introducing a bicycle lane. To design the bicycle lane natural Physarum, brainless single celled multi-nucleated protist, is studied and modified for better optimization. Recently Physarum inspired techniques are drawn significant attention to the construction of effective networks. Exiting Physarum inspired models effectively and efficiently solves different problems including transport network design and modification and implication for bicycle lane is the unique contribution of this study. Central area of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is considered to analyze and design the bicycle lane network bypassing primary roads.

One can use such a framework to (i) design a neural-based generator model that can interact with a numerical simulator of the rest of the power grid or (ii) shadow the generator's transient response. To this end, we design a data-driven Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) that approximates the generators' infinite-dimensional solution operator. Then, we develop a DeepONet-based numerical scheme to simulate a given generator's dynamic response over a short/medium-term horizon. The proposed numerical scheme recursively employs the trained DeepONet to simulate the response for a given multi-dimensional input, which describes the interaction between the generator and the rest of the system. Furthermore, we develop a residual DeepONet numerical scheme that incorporates information from mathematical models of synchronous generators. We accompany this residual DeepONet scheme with an estimate for the prediction's cumulative error. We also design a data aggregation (DAgger) strategy that allows (i) employing supervised learning to train the proposed DeepONets and (ii) fine-tuning the DeepONet using aggregated training data that the DeepONet is likely to encounter during interactive simulations with other grid components. Finally, as a proof of concept, we demonstrate that the proposed DeepONet frameworks can effectively approximate the transient model of a synchronous generator.

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, requiring rapid action across society. As artificial intelligence tools (AI) are rapidly deployed, it is therefore crucial to understand how they will impact climate action. On the one hand, AI can support applications in climate change mitigation (reducing or preventing greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation (preparing for the effects of a changing climate), and climate science. These applications have implications in areas ranging as widely as energy, agriculture, and finance. At the same time, AI is used in many ways that hinder climate action (e.g., by accelerating the use of greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels). In addition, AI technologies have a carbon and energy footprint themselves. This symposium brought together participants from across academia, industry, government, and civil society to explore these intersections of AI with climate change, as well as how each of these sectors can contribute to solutions.