Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions--such as views, likes, or downloads--are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets--arXiv (accesses citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars forks of 3M repositories)--and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page-views edits), Spotify (streams concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding sur-vivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data cura-tion and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. The success of human activities is often measured by their collective impact, ranging from music streams and movie box office revenues to product sales and social media popularity. These impact metrics typically follow heavy-tailed distributions (Clauset et al., 2009) and slow decay patterns across timescales (Candia et al., 2019), making early identification of future hits fundamentally challenging (Cheng et al., 2014; Martin et al., 2016). At the same time, digital platforms increasingly log online user interactions--searches, views, downloads, likes, and shares--that often precede these long-term dynamics. These temporal lead-lag dynamics are remarkably ubiquitous, spanning domains as diverse as science (Haque & Ginsparg, 2009), economics (Wu & Brynjolfsson, 2015), arts (Goel et al., 2010), culture (Gruhl et al., 2005), and social movements (Johnson et al., 2016). A systematic understanding of such lead-lag dynamics is not only crucial for anticipating and optimizing impact in digital ecosystems, but also essential for designing effective strategies that identify and promote emerging innovations and products.

Climate change is intensifying the occurrence of harmful algal bloom (HAB), particularly cyanobacteria, which threaten aquatic ecosystems and human health through oxygen depletion, toxin release, and disruption of marine biodiversity. Traditional monitoring approaches, such as manual water sampling, remain labor-intensive and limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) for remote sensing have shown potential for scalable AI-driven solutions, yet challenges remain in reasoning over imagery and quantifying bloom severity. In this work, we introduce ALGae Observation and Segmentation (ALGOS), a segmentation-and-reasoning system for HAB monitoring that combines remote sensing image understanding with severity estimation. Our approach integrates GeoSAM-assisted human evaluation for high-quality segmentation mask curation and fine-tunes vision language model on severity prediction using the Cyanobacteria Aggregated Manual Labels (CAML) from NASA. Experiments demonstrate that ALGOS achieves robust performance on both segmentation and severity-level estimation, paving the way toward practical and automated cyanobacterial monitoring systems.

Time series forecasting is essential across domains from finance to supply chain management. This paper introduces ForecastGAN, a novel decomposition based adversarial framework addressing limitations in existing approaches for multi-horizon predictions. Although transformer models excel in long-term forecasting, they often underperform in short-term scenarios and typically ignore categorical features. ForecastGAN operates through three integrated modules: a Decomposition Module that extracts seasonality and trend components; a Model Selection Module that identifies optimal neural network configurations based on forecasting horizon; and an Adversarial Training Module that enhances prediction robustness through Conditional Generative Adversarial Network training. Unlike conventional approaches, ForecastGAN effectively integrates both numerical and categorical features. We validate our framework on eleven benchmark multivariate time series datasets that span various forecasting horizons. The results show that ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting while remaining competitive for long-term horizons. This research establishes a more generalizable approach to time series forecasting that adapts to specific contexts while maintaining strong performance across diverse data characteristics without extensive hyperparameter tuning.

The site, a few kilometers from her own hut in Ipatsé, a Kuikuro village in the Xingu Indigenous territory, was once the backyard of her great-grandparents' house. As she scrapes the brown earth with a trowel, she soon spots a black ceramic shard. It is only about the size of her palm, and this is her first day ever on an archaeological excavation. But she immediately recognizes what the object once was. "It's an alato," she says, showing the piece to a group of archaeologists and other Kuikuro who have gathered to watch the excavation in the village of Anitahagu. An alato, Yamána explains, is a large pan used to cook beiju, a white flatbread made with yucca flour that's eaten almost every day in her village. Her grandmother still has one in the backyard fire pit where she prepares most meals, just as countless Kuikuro women did before her. This alato likely belonged to her great-grandmother on her mother's side.

Look at the big picture instead. Why focusing on the energy system and large companies is more important than policing individual behavior. Picture it: I'm minding my business at a party, parked by the snack table (of course). A friend of a friend wanders up, and we strike up a conversation. It quickly turns to work, and upon learning that I'm a climate technology reporter, my new acquaintance says something like: "Should I be using AI? I've heard it's awful for the environment." We did the math on AI's energy footprint.

From gas to groceries, has Trump kept his promise to tackle rising prices? President Donald Trump was swept to power for a second time on the back of a central campaign promise to tackle inflation. The steep rise in the cost of living was top of voters' minds and Trump blamed President Joe Biden. He also made sweeping promises to bring down prices for Americans starting on day one. One year on from his victory, BBC Verify revisits some of the president's claims.

Deep research systems, agentic AI that solve complex, multi-step tasks by coordinating reasoning, search across the open web and user files, and tool use, are moving toward hierarchical deployments with a Planner, Coordinator, and Executors. In practice, training entire stacks end-to-end remains impractical, so most work trains a single planner connected to core tools such as search, browsing, and code. While SFT imparts protocol fidelity, it suffers from imitation and exposure biases and underuses environment feedback. Preference alignment methods such as DPO are schema and proxy-dependent, off-policy, and weak for long-horizon credit assignment and multi-objective trade-offs. A further limitation of SFT and DPO is their reliance on human defined decision points and subskills through schema design and labeled comparisons. Reinforcement learning aligns with closed-loop, tool-interaction research by optimizing trajectory-level policies, enabling exploration, recovery behaviors, and principled credit assignment, and it reduces dependence on such human priors and rater biases. This survey is, to our knowledge, the first dedicated to the RL foundations of deep research systems. It systematizes recent work along three axes: (i) data synthesis and curation; (ii) RL methods for agentic research covering stability, sample efficiency, long context handling, reward and credit design, multi-objective optimization, and multimodal integration; and (iii) agentic RL training systems and frameworks. We also cover agent architecture and coordination, as well as evaluation and benchmarks, including recent QA, VQA, long-form synthesis, and domain-grounded, tool-interaction tasks. We distill recurring patterns, surface infrastructure bottlenecks, and offer practical guidance for training robust, transparent deep research agents with RL.

Abstract--The rapid expansion of immersive Metaverse applications introduces complex challenges at the intersection of performance, privacy, and environmental sustainability. Centralized architectures fall short in addressing these demands, often resulting in elevated energy consumption, latency, and privacy concerns. This paper proposes MetaF ed, a decentralized federated learning (FL) framework that enables sustainable and intelligent resource orchestration for Metaverse environments. MetaFed integrates (i) multi-agent reinforcement learning for dynamic client selection, (ii) privacy-preserving FL using homomorphic encryption, and (iii) carbon-aware scheduling aligned with renewable energy availability. Evaluations on MNIST and CIF AR-10 using lightweight ResNet architectures demonstrate that MetaFed achieves up to 25% reduction in carbon emissions compared to conventional approaches, while maintaining high accuracy and minimal communication overhead.

The exponential growth of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites has revolutionised Earth Observation (EO) missions, addressing challenges in climate monitoring, disaster management, and more. However, autonomous coordination in multi-satellite systems remains a fundamental challenge. Traditional optimisation approaches struggle to handle the real-time decision-making demands of dynamic EO missions, necessitating the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). In this paper, we investigate RL-based autonomous EO mission planning by modelling single-satellite operations and extending to multi-satellite constellations using MARL frameworks. We address key challenges, including energy and data storage limitations, uncertainties in satellite observations, and the complexities of decentralised coordination under partial observability. By leveraging a near-realistic satellite simulation environment, we evaluate the training stability and performance of state-of-the-art MARL algorithms, including PPO, IPPO, MAPPO, and HAPPO. Our results demonstrate that MARL can effectively balance imaging and resource management while addressing non-stationarity and reward interdependency in multi-satellite coordination. The insights gained from this study provide a foundation for autonomous satellite operations, offering practical guidelines for improving policy learning in decentralised EO missions.

The growing gap between the increasing complexity of large language models (LLMs) and the limited computational budgets of edge devices poses a key challenge for efficient on-device inference, despite gradual improvements in hardware capabilities. Existing strategies, such as aggressive quantization, pruning, or remote inference, trade accuracy for efficiency or lead to substantial cost burdens. This position paper introduces a new framework that leverages speculative decoding, previously viewed primarily as a decoding acceleration technique for autoregressive generation of LLMs, as a promising approach specifically adapted for edge computing by orchestrating computation across heterogeneous devices. We propose \acronym, a framework that allows lightweight edge devices to draft multiple candidate tokens locally using diverse draft models, while a single, shared edge server verifies the tokens utilizing a more precise target model. To further increase the efficiency of verification, the edge server batch the diverse verification requests from devices. This approach supports device heterogeneity and reduces server-side memory footprint by sharing the same upstream target model across multiple devices. Our initial experiments with Jetson Orin Nano, Raspberry Pi 4B/5, and an edge server equipped with 4 Nvidia A100 GPUs indicate substantial benefits: 2.2 more system throughput, 2.8 more system capacity, and better cost efficiency, all without sacrificing model accuracy.