Energy
Decentralised Active Perception in Continuous Action Spaces for the Coordinated Escort Problem
Hull, Rhett, Lee, Ki Myung Brian, Wakulicz, Jennifer, Yoo, Chanyeol, McMahon, James, Clarke, Bryan, Anstee, Stuart, Kim, Jijoong, Fitch, Robert
We consider the coordinated escort problem, where a decentralised team of supporting robots implicitly assist the mission of higher-value principal robots. The defining challenge is how to evaluate the effect of supporting robots' actions on the principal robots' mission. To capture this effect, we define two novel auxiliary reward functions for supporting robots called satisfaction improvement and satisfaction entropy, which computes the improvement in probability of mission success, or the uncertainty thereof. Given these reward functions, we coordinate the entire team of principal and supporting robots using decentralised cross entropy method (Dec-CEM), a new extension of CEM to multi-agent systems based on the product distribution approximation. In a simulated object avoidance scenario, our planning framework demonstrates up to two-fold improvement in task satisfaction against conventional decoupled information gathering.The significance of our results is to introduce a new family of algorithmic problems that will enable important new practical applications of heterogeneous multi-robot systems.
Uncertainty-Aware Vehicle Energy Efficiency Prediction using an Ensemble of Neural Networks
Khiari, Jihed, Olaverri-Monreal, Cristina
The transportation sector accounts for about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, an improvement of energy efficiency in the traffic sector is crucial to reducing the carbon footprint. Efficiency is typically measured in terms of energy use per traveled distance, e.g. liters of fuel per kilometer. Leading factors that impact the energy efficiency are the type of vehicle, environment, driver behavior, and weather conditions. These varying factors introduce uncertainty in estimating the vehicles' energy efficiency. We propose in this paper an ensemble learning approach based on deep neural networks (ENN) that is designed to reduce the predictive uncertainty and to output measures of such uncertainty. We evaluated it using the publicly available Vehicle Energy Dataset (VED) and compared it with several baselines per vehicle and energy type. The results showed a high predictive performance and they allowed to output a measure of predictive uncertainty.
Unpaired Downscaling of Fluid Flows with Diffusion Bridges
Bischoff, Tobias, Deck, Katherine
We present a method to downscale idealized geophysical fluid simulations using generative models based on diffusion maps. By analyzing the Fourier spectra of images drawn from different data distributions, we show how one can chain together two independent conditional diffusion models for use in domain translation. The resulting transformation is a diffusion bridge between a low resolution and a high resolution dataset and allows for new sample generation of high-resolution images given specific low resolution features. The ability to generate new samples allows for the computation of any statistic of interest, without any additional calibration or training. Our unsupervised setup is also designed to downscale images without access to paired training data; this flexibility allows for the combination of multiple source and target domains without additional training. We demonstrate that the method enhances resolution and corrects context-dependent biases in geophysical fluid simulations, including in extreme events. We anticipate that the same method can be used to downscale the output of climate simulations, including temperature and precipitation fields, without needing to train a new model for each application and providing a significant computational cost savings.
An Improved Yaw Control Algorithm for Wind Turbines via Reinforcement Learning
Yaw misalignment, measured as the difference between the wind direction and the nacelle position of a wind turbine, has consequences on the power output, the safety and the lifetime of the turbine and its wind park as a whole. We use reinforcement learning to develop a yaw control agent to minimise yaw misalignment and optimally reallocate yaw resources, prioritising high-speed segments, while keeping yaw usage low. To achieve this, we carefully crafted and tested the reward metric to trade-off yaw usage versus yaw alignment (as proportional to power production), and created a novel simulator (environment) based on real-world wind logs obtained from a REpower MM82 2MW turbine. The resulting algorithm decreased the yaw misalignment by 5.5% and 11.2% on two simulations of 2.7 hours each, compared to the conventional active yaw control algorithm. The average net energy gain obtained was 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, compared to the traditional yaw control algorithm.
Achieving Realistic Cyclist Behavior in SUMO using the SimRa Dataset
Karakaya, Ahmet-Serdar, Stef, Ioan-Alexandru, Kรถhler, Konstantin, Heinovski, Julian, Dressler, Falko
Increasing the modal share of bicycle traffic to reduce carbon emissions, reduce urban car traffic, and to improve the health of citizens, requires a shift away from car-centric city planning. For this, traffic planners often rely on simulation tools such as SUMO which allow them to study the effects of construction changes before implementing them. Similarly, studies of vulnerable road users, here cyclists, also use such models to assess the performance of communication-based road traffic safety systems. The cyclist model in SUMO, however, is very imprecise as SUMO cyclists behave either like slow cars or fast pedestrians, thus, casting doubt on simulation results for bicycle traffic. In this paper, we analyze acceleration, deceleration, velocity, and intersection left-turn behavior of cyclists in a large dataset of real world cycle tracks. We use the results to improve the existing cyclist model in SUMO and add three more detailed cyclist models and implement them in SUMO.
Fairness and representation in satellite-based poverty maps: Evidence of urban-rural disparities and their impacts on downstream policy
Aiken, Emily, Rolf, Esther, Blumenstock, Joshua
Poverty maps derived from satellite imagery are increasingly used to inform high-stakes policy decisions, such as the allocation of humanitarian aid and the distribution of government resources. Such poverty maps are typically constructed by training machine learning algorithms on a relatively modest amount of ``ground truth" data from surveys, and then predicting poverty levels in areas where imagery exists but surveys do not. Using survey and satellite data from ten countries, this paper investigates disparities in representation, systematic biases in prediction errors, and fairness concerns in satellite-based poverty mapping across urban and rural lines, and shows how these phenomena affect the validity of policies based on predicted maps. Our findings highlight the importance of careful error and bias analysis before using satellite-based poverty maps in real-world policy decisions.
Tech to drive job changes for quarter of all workers over five years
Global labor markets are poised for a new era of turbulence as technologies like artificial intelligence accelerate the decline of clerical work, while simultaneously increasing demand for technology and cybersecurity specialists. Over the next five years, nearly a quarter of all jobs will change as a result of AI, digitization and other economic developments like the green energy transition and supply chain re-shoring, according to a report published by the World Economic Forum in Geneva on Monday. While the study expects AI to result in "significant labor-market disruption," the net impact of most technologies will be positive over the next five years as big data analytics, management technologies and cybersecurity become the biggest drivers of employment growth. This could be due to a conflict with your ad-blocking or security software. Please add japantimes.co.jp and piano.io to your list of allowed sites.
Neural Stein critics with staged $L^2$-regularization
Repasky, Matthew, Cheng, Xiuyuan, Xie, Yao
Learning to differentiate model distributions from observed data is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, and high-dimensional data remains a challenging setting for such problems. Metrics that quantify the disparity in probability distributions, such as the Stein discrepancy, play an important role in high-dimensional statistical testing. In this paper, we investigate the role of $L^2$ regularization in training a neural network Stein critic so as to distinguish between data sampled from an unknown probability distribution and a nominal model distribution. Making a connection to the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory, we develop a novel staging procedure for the weight of regularization over training time, which leverages the advantages of highly-regularized training at early times. Theoretically, we prove the approximation of the training dynamic by the kernel optimization, namely the ``lazy training'', when the $L^2$ regularization weight is large, and training on $n$ samples converge at a rate of ${O}(n^{-1/2})$ up to a log factor. The result guarantees learning the optimal critic assuming sufficient alignment with the leading eigen-modes of the zero-time NTK. The benefit of the staged $L^2$ regularization is demonstrated on simulated high dimensional data and an application to evaluating generative models of image data.
Physics-constrained neural differential equations for learning multi-ionic transport
Rehman, Danyal, Lienhard, John H.
Continuum models for ion transport through polyamide nanopores require solving partial differential equations (PDEs) through complex pore geometries. Resolving spatiotemporal features at this length and time-scale can make solving these equations computationally intractable. In addition, mechanistic models frequently require functional relationships between ion interaction parameters under nano-confinement, which are often too challenging to measure experimentally or know a priori. In this work, we develop the first physics-informed deep learning model to learn ion transport behaviour across polyamide nanopores. The proposed architecture leverages neural differential equations in conjunction with classical closure models as inductive biases directly encoded into the neural framework. The neural differential equations are pre-trained on simulated data from continuum models and fine-tuned on independent experimental data to learn ion rejection behaviour. Gaussian noise augmentations from experimental uncertainty estimates are also introduced into the measured data to improve model generalization. Our approach is compared to other physics-informed deep learning models and shows strong agreement with experimental measurements across all studied datasets.
Stochastic MPC Based Attacks on Object Tracking in Autonomous Driving Systems
Decision making in advanced driver assistance systems involves in general the estimated trajectories of the surrounding objects. Multiple object tracking refers to the process of estimating in real time these trajectories, leveraging for this purpose sensors to detect the objects. This paper deals with devising attacks on object tracking in automated vehicles. The vehicle is assumed to have a detection-based object tracking system that relies on multiple sensors and uses an estimator such as a Kalman filter for sensor fusion and state estimation. The attack goal is to modify the object's state estimated by the victim vehicle to put the vehicle in an unsafe situation. This goal is achieved by judiciously perturbing some or all of the sensor outputs corresponding to the object of interest over a desired horizon. A stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem is formulated to compute the sequence of perturbations, whereby hard constraints on the perturbations and probabilistic chance constraints on the object's state are imposed. The chance constraints ensure that some desired conditions for a successful attack are satisfied with a prespecified probability. Reasonable assumptions are then made to obtain a computationally tractable linear SMPC program. The approach is demonstrated on an adaptive cruise control system in a simulation environment, where successful sequential attacks are generated, leading the victim vehicle into dangerous driving situations including collisions.