Predictive coding (PC) is a brain-inspired local learning algorithm that has recently been suggested to provide advantages over backpropagation (BP) in biologically relevant scenarios. While theoretical work has mainly focused on showing how PC can approximate BP in various limits, the putative benefits of "natural" PC are less understood. Here we develop a theory of PC as an adaptive trust-region (TR) algorithm that uses second-order information. We show that the learning dynamics of PC can be interpreted as interpolating between BP's loss gradient direction and a TR direction found by the PC inference dynamics. Our theory suggests that PC should escape saddle points faster than BP, a prediction which we prove in a shallow linear model and support with experiments on deeper networks. This work lays a foundation for understanding PC in deep and wide networks.

This paper considers the problem of data generation for MPC policy approximation. Learning an approximate MPC policy from expert demonstrations requires a large data set consisting of optimal state-action pairs, sampled across the feasible state space. Yet, the key challenge of efficiently generating the training samples has not been studied widely. Recently, a sensitivity-based data augmentation framework for MPC policy approximation was proposed, where the parametric sensitivities are exploited to cheaply generate several additional samples from a single offline MPC computation. The error due to augmenting the training data set with inexact samples was shown to increase with the size of the neighborhood around each sample used for data augmentation. Building upon this work, this letter paper presents an improved data augmentation scheme based on predictor-corrector steps that enforces a user-defined level of accuracy, and shows that the error bound of the augmented samples are independent of the size of the neighborhood used for data augmentation.

Nanodevices with Terahertz (THz)-based wireless communication capabilities are providing a primer for flow-guided localization within the human bloodstreams. Such localization is allowing for assigning the locations of sensed events with the events themselves, providing benefits in precision medicine along the lines of early and precise diagnostics, and reduced costs and invasiveness. Flow-guided localization is still in a rudimentary phase, with only a handful of works targeting the problem. Nonetheless, the performance assessments of the proposed solutions are already carried out in a non-standardized way, usually along a single performance metric, and ignoring various aspects that are relevant at such a scale (e.g., nanodevices' limited energy) and for such a challenging environment (e.g., extreme attenuation of in-body THz propagation). As such, these assessments feature low levels of realism and cannot be compared in an objective way. Toward addressing this issue, we account for the environmental and scale-related peculiarities of the scenario and assess the performance of two state-of-the-art flow-guided localization approaches along a set of heterogeneous performance metrics such as the accuracy and reliability of localization.

Forecasting electricity demand plays a critical role in ensuring reliable and cost-efficient operation of the electricity supply. With the global transition to distributed renewable energy sources and the electrification of heating and transportation, accurate load forecasts become even more important. While numerous empirical studies and a handful of review articles exist, there is surprisingly little quantitative analysis of the literature, most notably none that identifies the impact of factors on forecasting performance across the entirety of empirical studies. In this article, we therefore present a Meta-Regression Analysis (MRA) that examines factors that influence the accuracy of short-term electricity load forecasts. We use data from 421 forecast models published in 59 studies. While the grid level (esp. individual vs. aggregated vs. system), the forecast granularity, and the algorithms used seem to have a significant impact on the MAPE, bibliometric data, dataset sizes, and prediction horizon show no significant effect. We found the LSTM approach and a combination of neural networks with other approaches to be the best forecasting methods. The results help practitioners and researchers to make meaningful model choices. Yet, this paper calls for further MRA in the field of load forecasting to close the blind spots in research and practice of load forecasting.

Self-supervised pre-training bears potential to generate expressive representations without human annotation. Most pre-training in Earth observation (EO) are based on ImageNet or medium-size, labeled remote sensing (RS) datasets. We share an unlabeled RS dataset SSL4EO-S12 (Self-Supervised Learning for Earth Observation - Sentinel-1/2) to assemble a large-scale, global, multimodal, and multi-seasonal corpus of satellite imagery from the ESA Sentinel-1 \& -2 satellite missions. For EO applications we demonstrate SSL4EO-S12 to succeed in self-supervised pre-training for a set of methods: MoCo-v2, DINO, MAE, and data2vec. Resulting models yield downstream performance close to, or surpassing accuracy measures of supervised learning. In addition, pre-training on SSL4EO-S12 excels compared to existing datasets. We make openly available the dataset, related source code, and pre-trained models at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/SSL4EO-S12.

To navigate in an environment safely and autonomously, robots must accurately estimate where obstacles are and how they move. Instead of using expensive traditional 3D sensors, we explore the use of a much cheaper, faster, and higher resolution alternative: programmable light curtains. Light curtains are a controllable depth sensor that sense only along a surface that the user selects. We adapt a probabilistic method based on particle filters and occupancy grids to explicitly estimate the position and velocity of 3D points in the scene using partial measurements made by light curtains. The central challenge is to decide where to place the light curtain to accurately perform this task. We propose multiple curtain placement strategies guided by maximizing information gain and verifying predicted object locations. Then, we combine these strategies using an online learning framework. We propose a novel self-supervised reward function that evaluates the accuracy of current velocity estimates using future light curtain placements. We use a multi-armed bandit framework to intelligently switch between placement policies in real time, outperforming fixed policies. We develop a full-stack navigation system that uses position and velocity estimates from light curtains for downstream tasks such as localization, mapping, path-planning, and obstacle avoidance. This work paves the way for controllable light curtains to accurately, efficiently, and purposefully perceive and navigate complex and dynamic environments. Project website: https://siddancha.github.io/projects/active-velocity-estimation/

Effective use of camera-based vision systems is essential for robust performance in autonomous off-road driving, particularly in the high-speed regime. Despite success in structured, on-road settings, current end-to-end approaches for scene prediction have yet to be successfully adapted for complex outdoor terrain. To this end, we present TerrainNet, a vision-based terrain perception system for semantic and geometric terrain prediction for aggressive, off-road navigation. The approach relies on several key insights and practical considerations for achieving reliable terrain modeling. The network includes a multi-headed output representation to capture fine- and coarse-grained terrain features necessary for estimating traversability. Accurate depth estimation is achieved using self-supervised depth completion with multi-view RGB and stereo inputs. Requirements for real-time performance and fast inference speeds are met using efficient, learned image feature projections. Furthermore, the model is trained on a large-scale, real-world off-road dataset collected across a variety of diverse outdoor environments. We show how TerrainNet can also be used for costmap prediction and provide a detailed framework for integration into a planning module. We demonstrate the performance of TerrainNet through extensive comparison to current state-of-the-art baselines for camera-only scene prediction. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of integrating TerrainNet within a complete autonomous-driving stack by conducting a real-world vehicle test in a challenging off-road scenario.

Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) approaches have emerged to tackle many real-world problems with multiple conflicting objectives by maximizing a joint objective function weighted by a preference vector. These approaches find fixed customized policies corresponding to preference vectors specified during training. However, the design constraints and objectives typically change dynamically in real-life scenarios. Furthermore, storing a policy for each potential preference is not scalable. Hence, obtaining a set of Pareto front solutions for the entire preference space in a given domain with a single training is critical. To this end, we propose a novel MORL algorithm that trains a single universal network to cover the entire preference space scalable to continuous robotic tasks. The proposed approach, Preference-Driven MORL (PD-MORL), utilizes the preferences as guidance to update the network parameters. It also employs a novel parallelization approach to increase sample efficiency. We show that PD-MORL achieves up to 25% larger hypervolume for challenging continuous control tasks and uses an order of magnitude fewer trainable parameters compared to prior approaches. The main objective in a standard RL setting is to obtain a policy that maximizes a single cumulative reward by interacting with the environment. However, many real-world problems involve multiple, possibly conflicting, objectives. For example, robotics tasks should maximize speed while minimizing energy consumption. In contrast to single-objective environments, performance is measured using multiple objectives. Consequently, there are multiple Pareto-optimal solutions as a function of the preference between objectives (Navon et al., 2020). Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) approaches (Hayes et al., 2022) have emerged to tackle these problems by maximizing a vector of rewards depending on the preferences. Existing approaches for multi-objective optimization generally transform the multidimensional objective space into a single dimension by statically assigning weights (preferences) to each objective (Liu et al., 2014).

Symbolic Regression (SR) algorithms attempt to learn analytic expressions which fit data accurately and in a highly interpretable manner. Conventional SR suffers from two fundamental issues which we address here. First, these methods search the space stochastically (typically using genetic programming) and hence do not necessarily find the best function. Second, the criteria used to select the equation optimally balancing accuracy with simplicity have been variable and subjective. To address these issues we introduce Exhaustive Symbolic Regression (ESR), which systematically and efficiently considers all possible equations -- made with a given basis set of operators and up to a specified maximum complexity -- and is therefore guaranteed to find the true optimum (if parameters are perfectly optimised) and a complete function ranking subject to these constraints. We implement the minimum description length principle as a rigorous method for combining these preferences into a single objective. To illustrate the power of ESR we apply it to a catalogue of cosmic chronometers and the Pantheon+ sample of supernovae to learn the Hubble rate as a function of redshift, finding $\sim$40 functions (out of 5.2 million trial functions) that fit the data more economically than the Friedmann equation. These low-redshift data therefore do not uniquely prefer the expansion history of the standard model of cosmology. We make our code and full equation sets publicly available.

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression tasks. This conditional distribution's quantiles of probability levels spreading the interval $(0,1)$ are boosted by additive models which are designed by us with intuitions and interpretability. We seek an adaptive balance between the structural integrity and the flexibility for $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$, while Gaussian assumption results in a lack of flexibility for real data and highly flexible approaches (e.g., estimating the quantiles separately without a distribution structure) inevitably have drawbacks and may not lead to good generalization. This ensemble multi-quantiles approach called EMQ proposed by us is totally data-driven, and can gradually depart from Gaussian and discover the optimal conditional distribution in the boosting. On extensive regression tasks from UCI datasets, we show that EMQ achieves state-of-the-art performance comparing to many recent uncertainty quantification methods. Visualization results further illustrate the necessity and the merits of such an ensemble model.