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Probabilistic Wildfire Susceptibility from Remote Sensing Using Random Forests and SHAP

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims to develop a comprehensive wildfire risk map for California by applying the random forest (RF) algorithm, augmented with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to interpret model predictions. Model performance was assessed using both spatial and temporal validation strategies. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving near-perfect discrimination for grasslands (AUC = 0.996) and forests (AUC = 0.997). Spatial cross-validation revealed moderate transferability, yielding ROC-AUC values of 0.6155 for forests and 0.5416 for grasslands. In contrast, temporal split validation showed enhanced generalization, especially for forests (ROC-AUC = 0.6615, PR-AUC = 0.8423). SHAP-based XAI analysis identified key ecosystem-specific drivers: soil organic carbon, tree cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) emerged as the most influential in forests, whereas Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation, and vegetation health indices were dominant in grasslands. District-level classification revealed that Central Valley and Northern Buttes districts had the highest concentration of high-risk grasslands, while Northern Buttes and North Coast Redwoods dominated forested high-risk areas. This RF-SHAP framework offers a robust, comprehensible, and adaptable method for assessing wildfire risks, enabling informed decisions and creating targeted strategies to mitigate dangers.


Homotopy-Guided Self-Supervised Learning of Parametric Solutions for AC Optimal Power Flow

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning to optimize (L2O) parametric approximations of AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF) solutions offers the potential for fast, reusable decision-making in real-time power system operations. However, the inherent nonconvexity of AC-OPF results in challenging optimization landscapes, and standard learning approaches often fail to converge to feasible, high-quality solutions. This work introduces a \textit{homotopy-guided self-supervised L2O method} for parametric AC-OPF problems. The key idea is to construct a continuous deformation of the objective and constraints during training, beginning from a relaxed problem with a broad basin of attraction and gradually transforming it toward the original problem. The resulting learning process improves convergence stability and promotes feasibility without requiring labeled optimal solutions or external solvers. We evaluate the proposed method on standard IEEE AC-OPF benchmarks and show that homotopy-guided L2O significantly increases feasibility rates compared to non-homotopy baselines, while achieving objective values comparable to full OPF solvers. These findings demonstrate the promise of homotopy-based heuristics for scalable, constraint-aware L2O in power system optimization.


How many stations are sufficient? Exploring the effect of urban weather station density reduction on imputation accuracy of air temperature and humidity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban weather station networks (WSNs) are widely used to monitor urban weather and climate patterns and aid urban planning. However, maintaining WSNs is expensive and labor-intensive. Here, we present a step-wise station removal procedure to thin an existing WSN in Freiburg, Germany, and analyze the ability of WSN subsets to reproduce air temperature and humidity patterns of the entire original WSN for a year following a simulated reduction of WSN density. We found that substantial reductions in station numbers after one year of full deployment are possible while retaining high predictive accuracy. A reduction from 42 to 4 stations, for instance, increased mean prediction RMSEs from 0.69 K to 0.83 K for air temperature and from 3.8% to 4.4% for relative humidity, corresponding to RMSE increases of only 20% and 16%, respectively. Predictive accuracy is worse for remote stations in forests than for stations in built-up or open settings, but consistently better than a state-of-the-art numerical urban land-surface model (Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme). Stations located at the edges between built-up and rural areas are most valuable when reconstructing city-wide climate characteristics. Our study demonstrates the potential of thinning WSNs to maximize the efficient allocation of financial and personnel-related resources in urban climate research.


The Environmental Impact of Ensemble Techniques in Recommender Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensemble techniques in recommender systems have demonstrated accuracy improvements of 10-30%, yet their environmental impact remains unmeasured. While deep learning recommendation algorithms can generate up to 3,297 kg CO2 per paper, ensemble methods have not been sufficiently evaluated for energy consumption. This thesis investigates how ensemble techniques influence environmental impact compared to single optimized models. We conducted 93 experiments across two frameworks (Surprise for rating prediction, LensKit for ranking) on four datasets spanning 100,000 to 7.8 million interactions. We evaluated four ensemble strategies (Average, Weighted, Stacking/Rank Fusion, Top Performers) against simple baselines and optimized single models, measuring energy consumption with a smart plug. Results revealed a non-linear accuracy-energy relationship. Ensemble methods achieved 0.3-5.7% accuracy improvements while consuming 19-2,549% more energy depending on dataset size and strategy. The Top Performers ensemble showed best efficiency: 0.96% RMSE improvement with 18.8% energy overhead on MovieLens-1M, and 5.7% NDCG improvement with 103% overhead on MovieLens-100K. Exhaustive averaging strategies consumed 88-270% more energy for comparable gains. On the largest dataset (Anime, 7.8M interactions), the Surprise ensemble consumed 2,005% more energy (0.21 Wh vs. 0.01 Wh) for 1.2% accuracy improvement, producing 53.8 mg CO2 versus 2.6 mg CO2 for the single model. This research provides one of the first systematic measurements of energy and carbon footprint for ensemble recommender systems, demonstrates that selective strategies offer superior efficiency over exhaustive averaging, and identifies scalability limitations at industrial scale. These findings enable informed decisions about sustainable algorithm selection in recommender systems.


Environment-Aware Transfer Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable Beam Selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--This paper presents a novel and sustainable approach for improving beam selection in 5G and beyond networks using transfer learning and Reinforcement Learning (RL). Traditional RL-based beam selection models require extensive training time and computational resources, particularly when deployed in diverse environments with varying propagation characteristics posing a major challenge for scalability and energy efficiency. T o address this, we propose modeling the environment as a point cloud, where each point represents the locations of gNodeBs (gNBs) and surrounding scatterers. By computing the Chamfer distance between point clouds, structurally similar environments can be efficiently identified, enabling the reuse of pre-trained models through transfer learning. This methodology leads to a 16 reduction in training time and computational overhead, directly contributing to energy efficiency. By minimizing the need for retraining in each new deployment, our approach significantly lowers power consumption and supports the development of green and sustainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) in wireless systems. Furthermore, it accelerates time-to-deployment, reduces carbon emissions associated with training, and enhances the viability of deploying AI-driven communication systems at the edge. Simulation results confirm that our approach maintains high performance while drastically cutting energy costs, demonstrating the potential of transfer learning to enable scalable, adaptive, and environmentally conscious RL-based beam selection strategies in dynamic and diverse propagation environments.


C$^3$TG: Conflict-aware, Composite, and Collaborative Controlled Text Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable text generation capabilities. However, controlling specific attributes of generated text remains challenging without architectural modifications or extensive fine-tuning. Current methods typically toggle a single, basic attribute but struggle with precise multi-attribute control. In scenarios where attribute requirements conflict, existing methods lack coordination mechanisms, causing interference between desired attributes. Furthermore, these methods fail to incorporate iterative optimization processes in the controlled generation pipeline. To address these limitations, we propose Conflict-aware, Composite, and Collaborative Controlled Text Generation (C$^3$TG), a two-phase framework for fine-grained, multi-dimensional text attribute control. During generation, C$^3$TG selectively pairs the LLM with the required attribute classifiers from the 17 available dimensions and employs weighted KL-divergence to adjust token probabilities. The optimization phase then leverages an energy function combining classifier scores and penalty terms to resolve attribute conflicts through iterative feedback, enabling precise control over multiple dimensions simultaneously while preserving natural text flow. Experiments show that C$^3$TG significantly outperforms baselines across multiple metrics including attribute accuracy, linguistic fluency, and output diversity, while simultaneously reducing toxicity. These results establish C$^3$TG as an effective and flexible solution for multi-dimensional text attribute control that requires no costly model modifications.


Learning Quantized Continuous Controllers for Integer Hardware

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deploying continuous-control reinforcement learning policies on embedded hardware requires meeting tight latency and power budgets. Small FPGAs can deliver these, but only if costly floating-point pipelines are avoided. We study quantization-aware training (QA T) of policies for integer inference and we present a learning-to-hardware pipeline that automatically selects low-bit policies and synthesizes them to an Artix-7 FPGA. Across five MuJoCo tasks, we obtain policy networks that are competitive with full precision (FP32) policies but require as few as 3 or even only 2 bits per weight, and per internal activation value, as long as input precision is chosen carefully. On the target hardware, the selected policies achieve inference latencies on the order of microseconds and consume microjoules per action, favorably comparing to a quantized reference. Last, we observe that the quantized policies exhibit increased input noise robustness compared to the floating-point baseline.


A Dynamic Recurrent Adjacency Memory Network for Mixed-Generation Power System Stability Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern power systems with high penetration of inverter-based resources exhibit complex dynamic behaviors that challenge the scalability and generalizability of traditional stability assessment methods. This paper presents a dynamic recurrent adjacency memory network (DRAMN) that combines physics-informed analysis with deep learning for real-time power system stability forecasting. The framework employs sliding-window dynamic mode decomposition to construct time-varying, multi-layer adjacency matrices from phasor measurement unit and sensor data to capture system dynamics such as modal participation factors, coupling strengths, phase relationships, and spectral energy distributions. As opposed to processing spatial and temporal dependencies separately, DRAMN integrates graph convolution operations directly within recurrent gating mechanisms, enabling simultaneous modeling of evolving dynamics and temporal dependencies. Extensive validations on modified IEEE 9-bus, 39-bus, and a multi-terminal HVDC network demonstrate high performance, achieving 99.85%, 99.90%, and 99.69% average accuracies, respectively, surpassing all tested benchmarks, including classical machine learning algorithms and recent graph-based models. The framework identifies optimal combinations of measurements that reduce feature dimensionality by 82% without performance degradation. Correlation analysis between dominant measurements for small-signal and transient stability events validates generalizability across different stability phenomena. DRAMN achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while providing enhanced interpretability for power system operators, making it suitable for real-time deployment in modern control centers.


3D Optimization for AI Inference Scaling: Balancing Accuracy, Cost, and Latency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI inference scaling is often tuned through 1D heuristics (a fixed reasoning pass) or 2D bivariate trade-offs (e.g., accuracy vs. compute), which fail to consider cost and latency constraints. We introduce a 3D optimization framework that jointly calibrates accuracy, cost, and latency within a unified decision space, enabling constraints-aware inference scaling. Using Monte Carlo simulations across three representative scenarios and nine simulated large language models, we evaluate four optimization methods to address the 3D multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem. Framing inference scaling in MOO shapes a feasible space that 1D and 2D optimizations fail to capture, enabling environment-adaptive selection of the inference scaling~$k$. Results show that knee-point optimization based on Pareto frontiers achieves the best balance, while accuracy-maximization remains favorable when accuracy is prioritized. Our results further show that smaller models, when combined with optimal inference scaling, can match or exceed the performance of larger models at a fraction of the cost. The framework establishes a theoretical foundation for deployment-aware inference scaling across diverse operational conditions.


Neural networks for neurocomputing circuits: a computational study of tolerance to noise and activation function non-uniformity when machine learning materials properties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dedicated analog neurocomputing circuits are promising for high-throughput, low power consumption applications of machine learning (ML) and for applications where implementing a digital computer is unwieldy (remote locations; small, mobile, and autonomous devices, extreme conditions, etc.). Neural networks (NN) implemented in such circuits, however, must contend with circuit noise and the non-uniform shapes of the neuron activation function (NAF) due to the dispersion of performance characteristics of circuit elements (such as transistors or diodes implementing the neurons). We present a computational study of the impact of circuit noise and NAF inhomogeneity in function of NN architecture and training regimes. We focus on one application that requires high-throughput ML: materials informatics, using as representative problem ML of formation energies vs. lowest-energy isomer of peri-condensed hydrocarbons, formation energies and band gaps of double perovskites, and zero point vibrational energies of molecules from QM9 dataset. We show that NNs generally possess low noise tolerance with the model accuracy rapidly degrading with noise level. Single-hidden layer NNs, and NNs with larger-than-optimal sizes are somewhat more noise-tolerant. Models that show less overfitting (not necessarily the lowest test set error) are more noise-tolerant. Importantly, we demonstrate that the effect of activation function inhomogeneity can be palliated by retraining the NN using practically realized shapes of NAFs.