The fast growth of social networks and their data access limitations in recent years has led to increasing difficulty in obtaining the complete topology of these networks. However, diffusion information over these networks is available, and many algorithms have been proposed to infer the underlying networks using this information. The previously proposed algorithms only focus on inferring more links and ignore preserving the critical topological characteristics of the underlying social networks. In this paper, we propose a novel method called DANI to infer the underlying network while preserving its structural properties. It is based on the Markov transition matrix derived from time series cascades, as well as the node-node similarity that can be observed in the cascade behavior from a structural point of view. In addition, the presented method has linear time complexity (increases linearly with the number of nodes, number of cascades, and square of the average length of cascades), and its distributed version in the MapReduce framework is also scalable. We applied the proposed approach to both real and synthetic networks. The experimental results showed that DANI has higher accuracy and lower run time while maintaining structural properties, including modular structure, degree distribution, connected components, density, and clustering coefficients, than well-known network inference methods.

Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point process models using neural networks to improve upon existing parametric models. We investigate whether these flexible point process models can be applied to short-term seismicity forecasting by extending an existing temporal neural model to the magnitude domain and we show how this model can forecast earthquakes above a target magnitude threshold. We first demonstrate that the neural model can fit synthetic ETAS data, however, requiring less computational time because it is not dependent on the full history of the sequence. By artificially emulating short-term aftershock incompleteness in the synthetic dataset, we find that the neural model outperforms ETAS. Using a new enhanced catalog from the 2016-2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, we investigate the predictive skill of ETAS and the neural model with respect to the lowest input magnitude. Constructing multiple forecasting experiments using the Visso, Norcia and Campotosto earthquakes to partition training and testing data, we target M3+ events. We find both models perform similarly at previously explored thresholds (e.g., above M3), but lowering the threshold to M1.2 reduces the performance of ETAS unlike the neural model. We argue that some of these gains are due to the neural model's ability to handle incomplete data. The robustness to missing data and speed to train the neural model present it as an encouraging competitor in earthquake forecasting.

Nowcasting day-ahead marginal emissions factors is increasingly important for power systems with high flexibility and penetration of distributed energy resources. With a significant share of firm generation from natural gas and coal power plants, forecasting day-ahead emissions in the current energy system has been widely studied. In contrast, as we shift to an energy system characterized by flexible power markets, dispatchable sources, and competing low-cost generation such as large-scale battery or hydrogen storage, system operators will be able to choose from a mix of different generation as well as emission pathways. To fully develop the emissions implications of a given dispatch schedule, we need a near real-time workflow with two layers. The first layer is a market model that continuously solves a security-constrained economic dispatch model. The second layer determines the marginal emissions based on the output of the market model, which is the subject of this paper. We propose using multi-headed convolutional neural networks to generate day-ahead forecasts of marginal and average emissions for a given independent system operator.

Neural networks have been widely applied in the power system area. They can be used for better predicting input information and modeling system performance with increased accuracy. In some applications such as battery degradation neural network-based microgrid day-ahead energy scheduling, the input features of the trained learning model are variables to be solved in optimization models that enforce limits on the output of the same learning model. This will create a neural network-embedded optimization problem; the use of nonlinear activation functions in the neural network will make such problems extremely hard to solve if not unsolvable. To address this emerging challenge, this paper investigated different methods for linearizing the nonlinear activation functions with a particular focus on the widely used rectified linear unit (ReLU) function. Four linearization methods tailored for the ReLU activation function are developed, analyzed and compared in this paper. Each method employs a set of linear constraints to replace the ReLU function, effectively linearizing the optimization problem, which can overcome the computational challenges associated with the nonlinearity of the neural network model. These proposed linearization methods provide valuable tools for effectively solving optimization problems that integrate neural network models with ReLU activation functions.

Reactive trajectory optimization for robotics presents formidable challenges, demanding the rapid generation of purposeful robot motion in complex and swiftly changing dynamic environments. While much existing research predominantly addresses robotic motion planning with predefined objectives, emerging problems in robotic trajectory optimization frequently involve dynamically evolving objectives and stochastic motion dynamics. However, effectively addressing such reactive trajectory optimization challenges for robot manipulators proves difficult due to inefficient, high-dimensional trajectory representations and a lack of consideration for time optimization. In response, we introduce a novel trajectory optimization framework called RETRO. RETRO employs adaptive optimization techniques that span both spatial and temporal dimensions. As a result, it achieves a remarkable computing complexity of $O(T^{2.4}) + O(Tn^{2})$, a significant improvement over the traditional application of DDP, which leads to a complexity of $O(n^{4})$ when reasonable time step sizes are used. To evaluate RETRO's performance in terms of error, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of its regret bounds, comparing it to an Oracle value function obtained through an Oracle trajectory optimization algorithm. Our analytical findings demonstrate that RETRO's total regret can be upper-bounded by a function of the chosen time step size. Moreover, our approach delivers smoothly optimized robot trajectories within the joint space, offering flexibility and adaptability for various tasks. It can seamlessly integrate task-specific requirements such as collision avoidance while maintaining real-time control rates. We validate the effectiveness of our framework through extensive simulations and real-world robot experiments in closed-loop manipulation scenarios.

In this paper, we present the Home Electricity Data Generator (HEDGE), an open-access tool for the random generation of realistic residential energy data. HEDGE generates realistic daily profiles of residential PV generation, household electric loads, and electric vehicle consumption and at-home availability, based on real-life UK datasets. The lack of usable data is a major hurdle for research on residential distributed energy resources characterisation and coordination, especially when using data-driven methods such as machine learning-based forecasting and reinforcement learning-based control. A key issue is that while large data banks are available, they are not in a usable format, and numerous subsequent days of data for a given single home are unavailable. We fill these gaps with the open-access HEDGE tool which generates data sequences of energy data for several days in a way that is consistent for single homes, both in terms of profile magnitude and behavioural clusters. From raw datasets, pre-processing steps are conducted, including filling in incomplete data sequences and clustering profiles into behaviour clusters. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are then trained to generate realistic synthetic data representative of each behaviour groups consistent with real-life behavioural and physical patterns.

Interactive behavior modeling of multiple agents is an essential challenge in simulation, especially in scenarios when agents need to avoid collisions and cooperate at the same time. Humans can interact with others without explicit communication and navigate in scenarios when cooperation is required. In this work, we aim to model human interactions in this realistic setting, where each agent acts based on its observation and does not communicate with others. We propose a framework based on distributed potential games, where each agent imagines a cooperative game with other agents and solves the game using its estimation of their behavior. We utilize iLQR to solve the games and closed-loop simulate the interactions. We demonstrate the benefits of utilizing distributed imagined games in our framework through various simulation experiments. We show the high success rate, the increased navigation efficiency, and the ability to generate rich and realistic interactions with interpretable parameters. Illustrative examples are available at https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/distributed-interaction.

Timely and accurate assessment of hurricane-induced building damage is crucial for effective post-hurricane response and recovery efforts. Recently, remote sensing technologies provide large-scale optical or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery data immediately after a disastrous event, which can be readily used to conduct rapid building damage assessment. Compared to optical satellite imageries, the Synthetic Aperture Radar can penetrate cloud cover and provide more complete spatial coverage of damaged zones in various weather conditions. However, these InSAR imageries often contain highly noisy and mixed signals induced by co-occurring or co-located building damage, flood, flood/wind-induced vegetation changes, as well as anthropogenic activities, making it challenging to extract accurate building damage information. In this paper, we introduced an approach for rapid post-hurricane building damage detection from InSAR imagery. This approach encoded complex causal dependencies among wind, flood, building damage, and InSAR imagery using a holistic causal Bayesian network. Based on the causal Bayesian network, we further jointly inferred the large-scale unobserved building damage by fusing the information from InSAR imagery with prior physical models of flood and wind, without the need for ground truth labels. Furthermore, we validated our estimation results in a real-world devastating hurricane -- the 2022 Hurricane Ian. We gathered and annotated building damage ground truth data in Lee County, Florida, and compared the introduced method's estimation results with the ground truth and benchmarked it against state-of-the-art models to assess the effectiveness of our proposed method. Results show that our method achieves rapid and accurate detection of building damage, with significantly reduced processing time compared to traditional manual inspection methods.

Gray-box models offer significant benefit over black-box approaches for equipment emulator development for equipment since their integration of physics provides more confidence in the model outside of the training domain. However, challenges such as model nonlinearity, unmodeled dynamics, and local minima introduce uncertainties into grey-box creation that contemporary approaches have failed to overcome, leading to their under-performance compared with black-box models. This paper seeks to address these uncertainties by injecting noise into the training dataset. This noise injection enriches the dataset and provides a measure of robustness against such uncertainties. A dynamic model for a water-to-water heat exchanger has been used as a demonstration case for this approach and tested using a pair of real devices with live data streaming. Compared to the unprocessed signal data, the application of noise injection resulted in a significant reduction in modeling error (root mean square error), decreasing from 0.68 to 0.27{\deg}C. This improvement amounts to a 60% enhancement when assessed on the training set, and improvements of 50% and 45% when validated against the test and validation sets, respectively.

Nuclear fusion using magnetic confinement holds promise as a viable method for sustainable energy. However, most fusion devices have been experimental and as we move towards energy reactors, we are entering into a new paradigm of engineering. Curating a design for a fusion reactor is a high-dimensional multi-output optimisation process. Through this work we demonstrate a proof-of-concept of an AI-driven strategy to help explore the design search space and identify optimum parameters. By utilising a Multi-Output Bayesian Optimisation scheme, our strategy is capable of identifying the Pareto front associated with the optimisation of the toroidal field coil shape of a tokamak. The optimisation helps to identify design parameters that would minimise the costs incurred while maximising the plasma stability by way of minimising magnetic ripples.