Firms are interested in understanding the choice behavior of their customers as well as forecasting the sales of their items. When customers choose at most one item per shopping instance, discrete-choice models estimate the probability of the choice, either at a segment level or individual customer level, based on a latent utility function of the features of the item, the customer, and the provided assortment. However, there are many situations where customers choose multiple items on a single shopping instance, either from the same category or across categories. The firm may be aware of only the final choices made by the customer (as in physical retail) or the precise sequence of those choices (such as in an e-commerce setting). Multi-choice models are used for the former case, to estimate the probability of choosing a subset of items, amongst all possible subsets of the given assortment, considering potential interactions amongst the items and their features. Sequential choice models consider the sequence of choices, taking into account not only the item and customer features but also what the customer has chosen till then to predict the subsequent choice(s). Modeling and predicting the choice probabilities for these situations is challenging: the complexity of the sequential and multi-choice models is considerably more than in the single-choice case because of combinatorial explosion in the number of possible customer journeys and final choices, and consequently models for multiple choices are less widely adapted in practice. In this paper, we introduce the Transformer Choice Net, a neural network using the Transformer architecture (Vaswani et al., 2017), as a data-driven solution that works under any of the three models: single, sequential, and multiple.

The petroleum industry is crucial for modern society, but the production process is complex and risky. During the production, accidents or failures, resulting from undesired production events, can cause severe environmental and economic damage. Previous studies have investigated machine learning (ML) methods for undesired event detection. However, the prediction of event probability in real-time was insufficiently addressed, which is essential since it is important to undertake early intervention when an event is expected to happen. This paper proposes two ML approaches, random forests and temporal convolutional networks, to detect undesired events in real-time. Results show that our approaches can effectively classify event types and predict the probability of their appearance, addressing the challenges uncovered in previous studies and providing a more effective solution for failure event management during the production.

We address multi-robot geometric task-and-motion planning (MR-GTAMP) problems in synchronous, monotone setups. The goal of the MR-GTAMP problem is to move objects with multiple robots to goal regions in the presence of other movable objects. We focus on collaborative manipulation tasks where the robots have to adopt intelligent collaboration strategies to be successful and effective, i.e., decide which robot should move which objects to which positions, and perform collaborative actions, such as handovers. To endow robots with these collaboration capabilities, we propose to first collect occlusion and reachability information for each robot by calling motion-planning algorithms. We then propose a method that uses the collected information to build a graph structure which captures the precedence of the manipulations of different objects and supports the implementation of a mixed-integer program to guide the search for highly effective collaborative task-and-motion plans. The search process for collaborative task-and-motion plans is based on a Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) exploration strategy to achieve exploration-exploitation balance. We evaluate our framework in two challenging MR-GTAMP domains and show that it outperforms two state-of-the-art baselines with respect to the planning time, the resulting plan length and the number of objects moved. We also show that our framework can be applied to underground mining operations where a robotic arm needs to coordinate with an autonomous roof bolter. We demonstrate plan execution in two roof-bolting scenarios both in simulation and on robots.

Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample autocovariances function from its assumed values. Within a linear time series framework it is shown that Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true. As applications we discuss long-only mimimal-variance portfolio optimization and subportfolio analysis with respect to idiosyncratic risks, ETF index tracking by sparse tracking portfolios, convolutional deep learners for image analysis and the analysis of array-of-sensors data.

Incomplete knowledge of the environment leads an agent to make decisions under uncertainty. One of the major dilemmas in Reinforcement Learning (RL) where an autonomous agent has to balance two contrasting needs in making its decisions is: exploiting the current knowledge of the environment to maximize the cumulative reward as well as exploring actions that allow improving the knowledge of the environment, hopefully leading to higher reward values (exploration-exploitation trade-off). Concurrently, another relevant issue regards the full observability of the states, which may not be assumed in all applications. Such as when only 2D images are considered as input in a RL approach used for finding the optimal action within a 3D simulation environment. In this work, we address these issues by deploying and testing several techniques to balance exploration and exploitation trade-off on partially observable systems for predicting steering wheels in autonomous driving scenario. More precisely, the final aim is to investigate the effects of using both stochastic and deterministic multi-armed bandit strategies coupled with a Deep Recurrent Q-Network. Additionally, we adapted and evaluated the impact of an innovative method to improve the learning phase of the underlying Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network. We aim to show that adaptive stochastic methods for exploration better approximate the trade-off between exploration and exploitation as, in general, Softmax and Max-Boltzmann strategies are able to outperform epsilon-greedy techniques.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in NLP, but their demands hinder their widespread deployment. While Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) offers a solution, its extensive training costs make Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) a more practical approach for LLMs. In existing studies, activation outliers in particular channels are identified as the bottleneck to PTQ accuracy. They propose to transform the magnitudes from activations to weights, which however offers limited alleviation or suffers from unstable gradients, resulting in a severe performance drop at low-bitwidth. In this paper, we propose QLLM, an accurate and efficient low-bitwidth PTQ method designed for LLMs. QLLM introduces an adaptive channel reassembly technique that reallocates the magnitude of outliers to other channels, thereby mitigating their impact on the quantization range. This is achieved by channel disassembly and channel assembly, which first breaks down the outlier channels into several sub-channels to ensure a more balanced distribution of activation magnitudes. Then similar channels are merged to maintain the original channel number for efficiency. Additionally, an adaptive strategy is designed to autonomously determine the optimal number of sub-channels for channel disassembly. To further compensate for the performance loss caused by quantization, we propose an efficient tuning method that only learns a small number of low-rank weights while freezing the pre-trained quantized model. After training, these low-rank parameters can be fused into the frozen weights without affecting inference. Extensive experiments on LLaMA-1 and LLaMA-2 show that QLLM can obtain accurate quantized models efficiently. For example, QLLM quantizes the 4-bit LLaMA-2-70B within 10 hours on a single A100-80G GPU, outperforming the previous state-of-the-art method by 7.89% on the average accuracy across five zero-shot tasks.

Planning informative trajectories while considering the spatial distribution of the information over the environment, as well as constraints such as the robot's limited battery capacity, makes the long-time horizon persistent coverage problem complex. Ergodic search methods consider the spatial distribution of environmental information while optimizing robot trajectories; however, current methods lack the ability to construct the target information spatial distribution for environments that vary stochastically across space and time. Moreover, current coverage methods dealing with battery capacity constraints either assume simple robot and battery models, or are computationally expensive. To address these problems, we propose a framework called Eclares, in which our contribution is two-fold. 1) First, we propose a method to construct the target information spatial distribution for ergodic trajectory optimization using clarity, an information measure bounded between [0,1]. The clarity dynamics allows us to capture information decay due to lack of measurements and to quantify the maximum attainable information in stochastic spatiotemporal environments. 2) Second, instead of directly tracking the ergodic trajectory, we introduce the energy-aware (eware) filter, which iteratively validates the ergodic trajectory to ensure that the robot has enough energy to return to the charging station when needed. The proposed eware filter is applicable to nonlinear robot models and is computationally lightweight. We demonstrate the working of the framework through a simulation case study.

When provided with sufficient explanatory context, smaller Language Models have been shown to exhibit strong reasoning ability on challenging short-answer question-answering tasks where the questions are unseen in training. We evaluate two methods for further improvement in this setting. Both methods focus on combining rationales generated by a larger Language Model with longer contexts created from a multi-hop dense retrieval system. The first method ($\textit{RR}$) involves training a Rationale Ranking model to score both generated rationales and retrieved contexts with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We then use the scores to derive combined contexts from both knowledge sources using a number of combinatory strategies. For the second method ($\textit{RATD}$) we utilise retrieval-augmented training datasets developed by Hartill et al. 2023 to train a smaller Reasoning model such that it becomes proficient at utilising relevant information from longer text sequences that may be only partially evidential and frequently contain many irrelevant sentences. We find that both methods significantly improve results. Our single best Reasoning model materially improves upon strong comparable prior baselines for unseen evaluation datasets (StrategyQA 58.9 $\rightarrow$ 61.7 acc., CommonsenseQA 63.6 $\rightarrow$ 72.7 acc., ARC-DA 31.6 $\rightarrow$ 52.1 F1, IIRC 25.5 $\rightarrow$ 27.3 F1) and a version utilising our prior knowledge of each type of question in selecting a context combination strategy does even better. Our proposed models also generally outperform direct prompts against much larger models (BLOOM 175B and StableVicuna 13B) in both few-shot chain-of-thought and standard few-shot settings.

Accurate load forecasting is critical for efficient and reliable operations of the electric power system. A large part of electricity consumption is affected by weather conditions, making weather information an important determinant of electricity usage. Personal appliances and industry equipment also contribute significantly to electricity demand with temporal patterns, making time a useful factor to consider in load forecasting. This work develops several machine learning (ML) models that take various time and weather information as part of the input features to predict the short-term system-wide total load. Ablation studies were also performed to investigate and compare the impacts of different weather factors on the prediction accuracy. Actual load and historical weather data for the same region were processed and then used to train the ML models. It is interesting to observe that using all available features, each of which may be correlated to the load, is unlikely to achieve the best forecasting performance; features with redundancy may even decrease the inference capabilities of ML models. This indicates the importance of feature selection for ML models. Overall, case studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ML models trained with different weather and time input features for ERCOT load forecasting.

This system paper presents a software framework for the support of topological analysis pipelines in a distributed-memory model. While several recent papers introduced topology-based approaches for distributed-memory environments, these were reporting experiments obtained with tailored, mono-algorithm implementations. In contrast, we describe in this paper a general-purpose, generic framework for topological analysis pipelines, i.e. a sequence of topological algorithms interacting together, possibly on distinct numbers of processes. Specifically, we instantiated our framework with the MPI model, within the Topology ToolKit (TTK). While developing this framework, we faced several algorithmic and software engineering challenges, which we document in this paper. We provide a taxonomy for the distributed-memory topological algorithms supported by TTK, depending on their communication needs and provide examples of hybrid MPI+thread parallelizations. Detailed performance analyses show that parallel efficiencies range from $20\%$ to $80\%$ (depending on the algorithms), and that the MPI-specific preconditioning introduced by our framework induces a negligible computation time overhead. We illustrate the new distributed-memory capabilities of TTK with an example of advanced analysis pipeline, combining multiple algorithms, run on the largest publicly available dataset we have found (120 billion vertices) on a standard cluster with 64 nodes (for a total of 1,536 cores). Finally, we provide a roadmap for the completion of TTK's MPI extension, along with generic recommendations for each algorithm communication category.