The Strait of Gibraltar is a region characterized by intricate oceanic sub-mesoscale features, influenced by topography, tidal forces, instabilities, and nonlinear hydraulic processes, all governed by the nonlinear equations of fluid motion. In this study, we aim to uncover the underlying physics of these phenomena within 3D MIT general circulation model simulations, including waves, eddies, and gyres. To achieve this, we employ Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to break down simulation snapshots into Koopman modes, with distinct exponential growth/decay rates and oscillation frequencies. Our objectives encompass evaluating DMD's efficacy in capturing known features, unveiling new elements, ranking modes, and exploring order reduction. We also introduce modifications to enhance DMD's robustness, numerical accuracy, and robustness of eigenvalues. DMD analysis yields a comprehensive understanding of flow patterns, internal wave formation, and the dynamics of the Strait of Gibraltar, its meandering behaviors, and the formation of a secondary gyre, notably the Western Alboran Gyre, as well as the propagation of Kelvin and coastal-trapped waves along the African coast. In doing so, it significantly advances our comprehension of intricate oceanographic phenomena and underscores the immense utility of DMD as an analytical tool for such complex datasets, suggesting that DMD could serve as a valuable addition to the toolkit of oceanographers.

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are important tools to model physical systems and including them into machine learning models is an important way of incorporating physical knowledge. Given any system of linear PDEs with constant coefficients, we propose a family of Gaussian process (GP) priors, which we call EPGP, such that all realizations are exact solutions of this system. We apply the Ehrenpreis-Palamodov fundamental principle, which works as a non-linear Fourier transform, to construct GP kernels mirroring standard spectral methods for GPs. Our approach can infer probable solutions of linear PDE systems from any data such as noisy measurements, or pointwise defined initial and boundary conditions. Constructing EPGP-priors is algorithmic, generally applicable, and comes with a sparse version (S-EPGP) that learns the relevant spectral frequencies and works better for big data sets. We demonstrate our approach on three families of systems of PDEs, the heat equation, wave equation, and Maxwell's equations, where we improve upon the state of the art in computation time and precision, in some experiments by several orders of magnitude.

As if walking a robot dog wasn't strange enough, Boston Dynamics' Spot can now take visitors for a walk, as it takes on the role of an English tour guide. In a new video, the engineering firm showed off Spot's new ability to answer questions and crack jokes using a range of accents, as well as several distinct personalities. The robot, decorated with tiny hats and googly eyes, leads guests to different locations and describes what it is seeing. Opening and closing its grabber to mimic a mouth and turning to'look' at people, Spot's performance is impressively close to that of a real guide. Powered by ChatGPT, Spot's creators say they have been surprised by some of the unexpected responses the robot dog has come up with. ChatGPT is an AI chatbot designed by Open AI in November 2022.

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that common noise may serve as an exploration noise for learning the solution of a mean field game. This concept is here exemplified through a toy linear-quadratic model, for which a suitable form of common noise has already been proven to restore existence and uniqueness. We here go one step further and prove that the same form of common noise may force the convergence of the learning algorithm called `fictitious play', and this without any further potential or monotone structure. Several numerical examples are provided in order to support our theoretical analysis.

The ability to accurately predict others' behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of interactive robotics. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents' goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as stochastic hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we use a runtime safety filter (also referred to as a "shielding" scheme), which overrides the robot's dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability agent behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving studies and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

This brief addresses the design of a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) strategy for exponentially incremental Input-to-State Stable (ISS) systems. In particular, a novel formulation is devised, which does not necessitate the onerous computation of terminal ingredients, but rather relies on the explicit definition of a minimum prediction horizon ensuring closed-loop stability. The designed methodology is particularly suited for the control of systems learned by Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are known for their enhanced modeling capabilities and for which the incremental ISS properties can be studied thanks to simple algebraic conditions. The approach is applied to Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, providing also a method for the design of a tailored state observer with convergence guarantees. The resulting control architecture is tested on a benchmark system, demonstrating its good control performances and efficient applicability.

Time-dependent data often exhibit characteristics, such as non-stationarity and heavy-tailed errors, that would be inappropriate to model with the typical assumptions used in popular models. Thus, more flexible approaches are required to be able to accommodate such issues. To this end, we propose a Bayesian mixture of student-$t$ processes with an overall-local scale structure for the covariance. Moreover, we use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler in order to perform online inference as data arrive in real-time. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach compared to typical Gaussian process-based models on real-world data sets in order to prove the necessity of using mixtures of student-$t$ processes.

By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems. In inverse problems the parameter or signal of interest is observed only indirectly, as an image of a given map, and the observations are typically further corrupted with noise. Bayes offers a natural way to regularize these problems via the prior distribution and provides a probabilistic solution, quantifying the remaining uncertainty in the problem. However, the computational costs of standard, sampling based Bayesian approaches can be overly large in such complex models. Therefore, in practice variational Bayes is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of these methods is still relatively limited, especially in context of inverse problems. In our analysis we investigate variational Bayesian methods for Gaussian process priors to solve linear inverse problems. We consider both mildly and severely ill-posed inverse problems and work with the popular inducing variables variational Bayes approach proposed by Titsias in 2009. We derive posterior contraction rates for the variational posterior in general settings and show that the minimax estimation rate can be attained by correctly tunned procedures. As specific examples we consider a collection of inverse problems including the heat equation, Volterra operator and Radon transform and inducing variable methods based on population and empirical spectral features.

Grasping using an aerial robot can have many applications ranging from infrastructure inspection and maintenance to precise agriculture. However, aerial grasping is a challenging problem since the robot has to maintain an accurate position and orientation relative to the grasping object, while negotiating various forms of uncertainties (e.g., contact force from the object). To address such challenges, in this paper, we integrate a novel passive gripper design and advanced adaptive control methods to enable robust aerial grasping. The gripper is enabled by a pre-stressed band with two stable states (a flat shape and a curled shape). In this case, it can automatically initiate the grasping process upon contact with an object. The gripper also features a cable-driven system by a single DC motor to open the gripper without using cumbersome pneumatics. Since the gripper is passively triggered and initially has a straight shape, it can function without precisely aligning the gripper with the object (within an $80$ mm tolerance). Our adaptive control scheme eliminates the need for any a priori knowledge (nominal or upper bounds) of uncertainties. The closed-loop stability of the system is analyzed via Lyapunov-based method. Combining the gripper and the adaptive control, we conduct comparative real-time experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed integrated system for grasping. Our integrated approach can pave the way to enhance aerial grasping for different applications.