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ACE: A fast, skillful learned global atmospheric model for climate prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.


From Prediction to Action: Critical Role of Performance Estimation for Machine-Learning-Driven Materials Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Materials discovery driven by statistical property models is an iterative decision process, during which an initial data collection is extended with new data proposed by a model-informed acquisition function--with the goal to maximize a certain "reward" over time, such as the maximum property value discovered so far. While the materials science community achieved much progress in developing property models that predict well on average with respect to the training distribution, this form of in-distribution performance measurement is not directly coupled with the discovery reward. This is because an iterative discovery process has a shifting reward distribution that is over-proportionally determined by the model performance for exceptional materials. We demonstrate this problem using the example of bulk modulus maximization among double perovskite oxides. We find that the in-distribution predictive performance suggests random forests as superior to Gaussian process regression, while the results are inverse in terms of the discovery rewards. We argue that the lack of proper performance estimation methods from pre-computed data collections is a fundamental problem for improving data-driven materials discovery, and we propose a novel such estimator that, in contrast to na\"ive reward estimation, successfully predicts Gaussian processes with the "expected improvement" acquisition function as the best out of four options in our demonstrational study for double perovskites. Importantly, it does so without requiring the over thousand ab initio computations that were needed to confirm this prediction.


X-Adapter: Adding Universal Compatibility of Plugins for Upgraded Diffusion Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce X-Adapter, a universal upgrader to enable the pretrained plug-and-play modules (e.g., ControlNet, LoRA) to work directly with the upgraded text-to-image diffusion model (e.g., SDXL) without further retraining. We achieve this goal by training an additional network to control the frozen upgraded model with the new text-image data pairs. In detail, X-Adapter keeps a frozen copy of the old model to preserve the connectors of different plugins. Additionally, X-Adapter adds trainable mapping layers that bridge the decoders from models of different versions for feature remapping. The remapped features will be used as guidance for the upgraded model. To enhance the guidance ability of X-Adapter, we employ a null-text training strategy for the upgraded model. After training, we also introduce a two-stage denoising strategy to align the initial latents of X-Adapter and the upgraded model. Thanks to our strategies, X-Adapter demonstrates universal compatibility with various plugins and also enables plugins of different versions to work together, thereby expanding the functionalities of diffusion community. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we conduct extensive experiments and the results show that X-Adapter may facilitate wider application in the upgraded foundational diffusion model.


Towards Causal Representations of Climate Model Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable, machine learning-based emulators trained on existing simulation data can project additional climate scenarios much faster and are computationally efficient. However, they often lack generalizability and interpretability. This work delves into the potential of causal representation learning, specifically the \emph{Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding} (CDSD) method, which could render climate model emulation efficient \textit{and} interpretable. We evaluate CDSD on multiple climate datasets, focusing on emissions, temperature, and precipitation. Our findings shed light on the challenges, limitations, and promise of using CDSD as a stepping stone towards more interpretable and robust climate model emulation.


Transformer-Powered Surrogates Close the ICF Simulation-Experiment Gap with Extremely Limited Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in machine learning, specifically transformer architecture, have led to significant advancements in commercial domains. These powerful models have demonstrated superior capability to learn complex relationships and often generalize better to new data and problems. This paper presents a novel transformer-powered approach for enhancing prediction accuracy in multi-modal output scenarios, where sparse experimental data is supplemented with simulation data. The proposed approach integrates transformer-based architecture with a novel graph-based hyper-parameter optimization technique. The resulting system not only effectively reduces simulation bias, but also achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the prior method. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on inertial confinement fusion experiments, where only 10 shots of real-world data are available, as well as synthetic versions of these experiments.


Low-power, Continuous Remote Behavioral Localization with Event Cameras

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Researchers in natural science need reliable methods for quantifying animal behavior. Recently, numerous computer vision methods emerged to automate the process. However, observing wild species at remote locations remains a challenging task due to difficult lighting conditions and constraints on power supply and data storage. Event cameras offer unique advantages for battery-dependent remote monitoring due to their low power consumption and high dynamic range capabilities. We use this novel sensor to quantify a behavior in Chinstrap penguins called ecstatic display. We formulate the problem as a temporal action detection task, determining the start and end times of the behavior. For this purpose, we recorded a colony of breeding penguins in Antarctica during several weeks and labeled event data on 16 nests. The developed method consists of a generator of candidate time intervals (proposals) and a classifier of the actions within them. The experiments show that the event cameras' natural response to motion is effective for continuous behavior monitoring and detection, reaching a mean average precision (mAP) of 58% (which increases to 63% in good weather conditions). The results also demonstrate the robustness against various lighting conditions contained in the challenging dataset. The low-power capabilities of the event camera allows to record three times longer than with a conventional camera. This work pioneers the use of event cameras for remote wildlife observation, opening new interdisciplinary opportunities. https://tub-rip.github.io/eventpenguins/


Pearl: A Production-ready Reinforcement Learning Agent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers a versatile framework for achieving long-term goals. Its generality allows us to formalize a wide range of problems that real-world intelligent systems encounter, such as dealing with delayed rewards, handling partial observability, addressing the exploration and exploitation dilemma, utilizing offline data to improve online performance, and ensuring safety constraints are met. Despite considerable progress made by the RL research community in addressing these issues, existing open-source RL libraries tend to focus on a narrow portion of the RL solution pipeline, leaving other aspects largely unattended. This paper introduces Pearl, a Production-ready RL agent software package explicitly designed to embrace these challenges in a modular fashion. In addition to presenting preliminary benchmark results, this paper highlights Pearl's industry adoptions to demonstrate its readiness for production usage.


Optimizing $CO_{2}$ Capture in Pressure Swing Adsorption Units: A Deep Neural Network Approach with Optimality Evaluation and Operating Maps for Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents a methodology for surrogate optimization of cyclic adsorption processes, focusing on enhancing Pressure Swing Adsorption units for carbon dioxide ($CO_{2}$) capture. We developed and implemented a multiple-input, single-output (MISO) framework comprising two deep neural network (DNN) models, predicting key process performance indicators. These models were then integrated into an optimization framework, leveraging particle swarm optimization (PSO) and statistical analysis to generate a comprehensive Pareto front representation. This approach delineated feasible operational regions (FORs) and highlighted the spectrum of optimal decision-making scenarios. A key aspect of our methodology was the evaluation of optimization effectiveness. This was accomplished by testing decision variables derived from the Pareto front against a phenomenological model, affirming the surrogate models reliability. Subsequently, the study delved into analyzing the feasible operational domains of these decision variables. A detailed correlation map was constructed to elucidate the interplay between these variables, thereby uncovering the most impactful factors influencing process behavior. The study offers a practical, insightful operational map that aids operators in pinpointing the optimal process location and prioritizing specific operational goals.


A Scalable and Generalizable Pathloss Map Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large-scale channel prediction, i.e., estimation of the pathloss from geographical/morphological/building maps, is an essential component of wireless network planning. Ray tracing (RT)-based methods have been widely used for many years, but they require significant computational effort that may become prohibitive with the increased network densification and/or use of higher frequencies in B5G/6G systems. In this paper, we propose a data-driven, model-free pathloss map prediction (PMP) method, called PMNet. PMNet uses a supervised learning approach: it is trained on a limited amount of RT (or channel measurement) data and map data. Once trained, PMNet can predict pathloss over location with high accuracy (an RMSE level of $10^{-2}$) in a few milliseconds. We further extend PMNet by employing transfer learning (TL). TL allows PMNet to learn a new network scenario quickly (x5.6 faster training) and efficiently (using x4.5 less data) by transferring knowledge from a pre-trained model, while retaining accuracy. Our results demonstrate that PMNet is a scalable and generalizable ML-based PMP method, showing its potential to be used in several network optimization applications.


PerSival: Neural-network-based visualisation for pervasive continuum-mechanical simulations in musculoskeletal biomechanics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel neural network architecture for the purpose of pervasive visualisation of a 3D human upper limb musculoskeletal system model. Bringing simulation capabilities to resource-poor systems like mobile devices is of growing interest across many research fields, to widen applicability of methods and results. Until recently, this goal was thought to be out of reach for realistic continuum-mechanical simulations of musculoskeletal systems, due to prohibitive computational cost. Within this work we use a sparse grid surrogate to capture the surface deformation of the m.~biceps brachii in order to train a deep learning model, used for real-time visualisation of the same muscle. Both these surrogate models take 5 muscle activation levels as input and output Cartesian coordinate vectors for each mesh node on the muscle's surface. Thus, the neural network architecture features a significantly lower input than output dimension. 5 muscle activation levels were sufficient to achieve an average error of 0.97 +/- 0.16 mm, or 0.57 +/- 0.10 % for the 2809 mesh node positions of the biceps. The model achieved evaluation times of 9.88 ms per predicted deformation state on CPU only and 3.48 ms with GPU-support, leading to theoretical frame rates of 101 fps and 287 fps respectively. Deep learning surrogates thus provide a way to make continuum-mechanical simulations accessible for visual real-time applications.