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AutoTimes: Autoregressive Time Series Forecasters via Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of large-scale time series and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential structure of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, prior methods may overlook the consistency in aligning time series and natural language, resulting in insufficient utilization of the LLM potentials. To fully exploit the general-purpose token transitions learned from language modeling, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as Autoregressive Time series forecasters, which is consistent with the acquisition and utilization of LLMs without updating the parameters. The consequent forecasters can handle flexible series lengths and achieve competitive performance as prevalent models. Further, we present token-wise prompting that utilizes corresponding timestamps to make our method applicable to multimodal scenarios. Analysis demonstrates our forecasters inherit zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities of LLMs. Empirically, AutoTimes exhibits notable method generality and achieves enhanced performance by basing on larger LLMs, additional texts, or time series as instructions.


Closed-Loop Unsupervised Representation Disentanglement with $\beta$-VAE Distillation and Diffusion Probabilistic Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Representation disentanglement may help AI fundamentally understand the real world and thus benefit both discrimination and generation tasks. It currently has at least three unresolved core issues: (i) heavy reliance on label annotation and synthetic data -- causing poor generalization on natural scenarios; (ii) heuristic/hand-craft disentangling constraints make it hard to adaptively achieve an optimal training trade-off; (iii) lacking reasonable evaluation metric, especially for the real label-free data. To address these challenges, we propose a \textbf{C}losed-\textbf{L}oop unsupervised representation \textbf{Dis}entanglement approach dubbed \textbf{CL-Dis}. Specifically, we use diffusion-based autoencoder (Diff-AE) as a backbone while resorting to $\beta$-VAE as a co-pilot to extract semantically disentangled representations. The strong generation ability of diffusion model and the good disentanglement ability of VAE model are complementary. To strengthen disentangling, VAE-latent distillation and diffusion-wise feedback are interconnected in a closed-loop system for a further mutual promotion. Then, a self-supervised \textbf{Navigation} strategy is introduced to identify interpretable semantic directions in the disentangled latent space. Finally, a new metric based on content tracking is designed to evaluate the disentanglement effect. Experiments demonstrate the superiority of CL-Dis on applications like real image manipulation and visual analysis.


Lightweight, Pre-trained Transformers for Remote Sensing Timeseries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning methods for satellite data have a range of societally relevant applications, but labels used to train models can be difficult or impossible to acquire. Self-supervision is a natural solution in settings with limited labeled data, but current self-supervised models for satellite data fail to take advantage of the characteristics of that data, including the temporal dimension (which is critical for many applications, such as monitoring crop growth) and availability of data from many complementary sensors (which can significantly improve a model's predictive performance). We present Presto (the Pretrained Remote Sensing Transformer), a model pre-trained on remote sensing pixel-timeseries data. By designing Presto specifically for remote sensing data, we can create a significantly smaller but performant model. Presto excels at a wide variety of globally distributed remote sensing tasks and performs competitively with much larger models while requiring far less compute. Presto can be used for transfer learning or as a feature extractor for simple models, enabling efficient deployment at scale.


Overconstrained Robotic Limb with Energy-Efficient, Omni-directional Locomotion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the design, modeling, and control of a novel quadruped, featuring overconstrained robotic limbs employing the Bennett linkage for motion and power transmission. The modular limb design allows the robot to morph into reptile- or mammal-inspired forms. In contrast to the prevailing focus on planar limbs, this research delves into the classical overconstrained linkages, which have strong theoretical foundations in advanced kinematics but limited engineering applications. The study showcases the morphological superiority of overconstrained robotic limbs that can transform into planar or spherical limbs, exemplifying the Bennett linkage. By conducting kinematic and dynamic modeling, we apply model predictive control to simulate a range of locomotion tasks, revealing that overconstrained limbs outperform planar designs in omni-directional tasks like forward trotting, lateral trotting, and turning on the spot when considering foothold distances. These findings highlight the biological distinctions in limb design between reptiles and mammals and represent the first documented instance of overconstrained robotic limbs outperforming planar designs in dynamic locomotion.


Bridging the Gaps: Learning Verifiable Model-Free Quadratic Programming Controllers Inspired by Model Predictive Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we introduce a new class of parameterized controllers, drawing inspiration from Model Predictive Control (MPC). The controller resembles a Quadratic Programming (QP) solver of a linear MPC problem, with the parameters of the controller being trained via Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) rather than derived from system models. This approach addresses the limitations of common controllers with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) or other general neural network architecture used in DRL, in terms of verifiability and performance guarantees, and the learned controllers possess verifiable properties like persistent feasibility and asymptotic stability akin to MPC. On the other hand, numerical examples illustrate that the proposed controller empirically matches MPC and MLP controllers in terms of control performance and has superior robustness against modeling uncertainty and noises. Furthermore, the proposed controller is significantly more computationally efficient compared to MPC and requires fewer parameters to learn than MLP controllers. Real-world experiments on vehicle drift maneuvering task demonstrate the potential of these controllers for robotics and other demanding control tasks.


Encoding Temporal Statistical-space Priors via Augmented Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling time series data remains a pervasive issue as the temporal dimension is inherent to numerous domains. Despite significant strides in time series forecasting, high noise-to-signal ratio, non-normality, non-stationarity, and lack of data continue challenging practitioners. In response, we leverage a simple representation augmentation technique to overcome these challenges. Our augmented representation acts as a statistical-space prior encoded at each time step. In response, we name our method Statistical-space Augmented Representation (SSAR). The underlying high-dimensional data-generating process inspires our representation augmentation. We rigorously examine the empirical generalization performance on two data sets with two downstream temporal learning algorithms. Our approach significantly beats all five up-to-date baselines. Moreover, the highly modular nature of our approach can easily be applied to various settings. Lastly, fully-fledged theoretical perspectives are available throughout the writing for a clear and rigorous understanding.


Multi-fidelity physics constrained neural networks for dynamical systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-constrained neural networks are commonly employed to enhance prediction robustness compared to purely data-driven models, achieved through the inclusion of physical constraint losses during the model training process. However, one of the major challenges of physics-constrained neural networks consists of the training complexity especially for high-dimensional systems. In fact, conventional physics-constrained models rely on singular-fidelity data necessitating the assessment of physical constraints within high-dimensional fields, which introduces computational difficulties. Furthermore, due to the fixed input size of the neural networks, employing multi-fidelity training data can also be cumbersome. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Scale Physics-Constrained Neural Network (MSPCNN), which offers a novel methodology for incorporating data with different levels of fidelity into a unified latent space through a customised multi-fidelity autoencoder. Additionally, multiple decoders are concurrently trained to map latent representations of inputs into various fidelity physical spaces. As a result, during the training of predictive models, physical constraints can be evaluated within low-fidelity spaces, yielding a trade-off between training efficiency and accuracy. In addition, unlike conventional methods, MSPCNN also manages to employ multi-fidelity data to train the predictive model. We assess the performance of MSPCNN in two fluid dynamics problems, namely a two-dimensional Burgers' system and a shallow water system. Numerical results clearly demonstrate the enhancement of prediction accuracy and noise robustness when introducing physical constraints in low-fidelity fields. On the other hand, as expected, the training complexity can be significantly reduced by computing physical constraint loss in the low-fidelity field rather than the high-fidelity one.


Data-Driven Prediction of Seismic Intensity Distributions Featuring Hybrid Classification-Regression Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we developed linear regression models capable of predicting seismic intensity distributions based on earthquake parameters: location, depth, and magnitude. Because it is completely data-driven, it can predict intensity distributions without geographical information. The dataset comprises seismic intensity data from earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Japan between 1997 and 2020, specifically containing 1,857 instances of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater, sourced from the Japan Meteorological Agency. We trained both regression and classification models and combined them to take advantage of both to create a hybrid model. The proposed model outperformed commonly used Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in terms of the correlation coefficient, F1 score, and MCC. Furthermore, the proposed model can predict even abnormal seismic intensity distributions, a task at conventional GMPEs often struggle.


Vi(E)va LLM! A Conceptual Stack for Evaluating and Interpreting Generative AI-based Visualizations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The automatic generation of visualizations is an old task that, through the years, has shown more and more interest from the research and practitioner communities. Recently, large language models (LLM) have become an interesting option for supporting generative tasks related to visualization, demonstrating initial promising results. At the same time, several pitfalls, like the multiple ways of instructing an LLM to generate the desired result, the different perspectives leading the generation (code-based, image-based, grammar-based), and the presence of hallucinations even for the visualization generation task, make their usage less affordable than expected. Following similar initiatives for benchmarking LLMs, this paper copes with the problem of modeling the evaluation of a generated visualization through an LLM. We propose a theoretical evaluation stack, EvaLLM, that decomposes the evaluation effort in its atomic components, characterizes their nature, and provides an overview of how to implement and interpret them. We also designed and implemented an evaluation platform that provides a benchmarking resource for the visualization generation task. The platform supports automatic and manual scoring conducted by multiple assessors to support a fine-grained and semantic evaluation based on the EvaLLM stack. Two case studies on GPT3.5-turbo with Code Interpreter and Llama2-70-b models show the benefits of EvaLLM and illustrate interesting results on the current state-of-the-art LLM-generated visualizations.


Machine Intelligence in Africa: a survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the last 5 years, the availability of large audio datasets in African countries has opened unlimited opportunities to build machine intelligence (MI) technologies that are closer to the people and speak, learn, understand, and do businesses in local languages, including for those who cannot read and write. Unfortunately, these audio datasets are not fully exploited by current MI tools, leaving several Africans out of MI business opportunities. Additionally, many state-of-the-art MI models are not culture-aware, and the ethics of their adoption indexes are questionable. The lack thereof is a major drawback in many applications in Africa. This paper summarizes recent developments in machine intelligence in Africa from a multi-layer multiscale and culture-aware ethics perspective, showcasing MI use cases in 54 African countries through 400 articles on MI research, industry, government actions, as well as uses in art, music, the informal economy, and small businesses in Africa. The survey also opens discussions on the reliability of MI rankings and indexes in the African continent as well as algorithmic definitions of unclear terms used in MI.