This paper presents a learning-based control strategy for non-linear throttle valves with an asymmetric hysteresis, leading to a near-optimal controller without requiring any prior knowledge about the environment. We start with a carefully tuned Proportional Integrator (PI) controller and exploit the recent advances in Reinforcement Learning (RL) with Guides to improve the closed-loop behavior by learning from the additional interactions with the valve. We test the proposed control method in various scenarios on three different valves, all highlighting the benefits of combining both PI and RL frameworks to improve control performance in non-linear stochastic systems. In all the experimental test cases, the resulting agent has a better sample efficiency than traditional RL agents and outperforms the PI controller.

The development of artificial intelligence systems with advanced reasoning capabilities represents a persistent and long-standing research question. Traditionally, the primary strategy to address this challenge involved the adoption of symbolic approaches, where knowledge was explicitly represented by means of symbols and explicitly programmed rules. However, with the advent of machine learning, there has been a paradigm shift towards systems that can autonomously learn from data, requiring minimal human guidance. In light of this shift, in latest years, there has been increasing interest and efforts at endowing neural networks with the ability to reason, bridging the gap between data-driven learning and logical reasoning. Within this context, Neural Algorithmic Reasoning (NAR) stands out as a promising research field, aiming to integrate the structured and rule-based reasoning of algorithms with the adaptive learning capabilities of neural networks, typically by tasking neural models to mimic classical algorithms. In this dissertation, we provide theoretical and practical contributions to this area of research. We explore the connections between neural networks and tropical algebra, deriving powerful architectures that are aligned with algorithm execution. Furthermore, we discuss and show the ability of such neural reasoners to learn and manipulate complex algorithmic and combinatorial optimization concepts, such as the principle of strong duality. Finally, in our empirical efforts, we validate the real-world utility of NAR networks across different practical scenarios. This includes tasks as diverse as planning problems, large-scale edge classification tasks and the learning of polynomial-time approximate algorithms for NP-hard combinatorial problems. Through this exploration, we aim to showcase the potential integrating algorithmic reasoning in machine learning models.

In recent years, black-box machine learning approaches have become a dominant modeling paradigm for knowledge extraction in Remote Sensing. Despite the potential benefits of uncovering the inner workings of these models with explainable AI, a comprehensive overview summarizing the used explainable AI methods and their objectives, findings, and challenges in Remote Sensing applications is still missing. In this paper, we address this issue by performing a systematic review to identify the key trends of how explainable AI is used in Remote Sensing and shed light on novel explainable AI approaches and emerging directions that tackle specific Remote Sensing challenges. We also reveal the common patterns of explanation interpretation, discuss the extracted scientific insights in Remote Sensing, and reflect on the approaches used for explainable AI methods evaluation. Our review provides a complete summary of the state-of-the-art in the field. Further, we give a detailed outlook on the challenges and promising research directions, representing a basis for novel methodological development and a useful starting point for new researchers in the field of explainable AI in Remote Sensing.

Department of Physics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA (Dated: February 26, 2024) Recent research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) raised concern about its potential collapse through a tipping point due to the climate-change caused increase in the freshwater input into the North Atlantic. The predicted time window of collapse is centered about the middle of the century and the earliest possible start is approximately two years from now. More generally, anticipating a tipping point at which the system transitions from one stable steady state to another is relevant to a broad range of fields. We develop a machine-learning approach to predicting tipping in noisy dynamical systems with a time-varying parameter and test it on a number of systems including the AMOC, ecological networks, an electrical power system, and a climate model. For the AMOC, our prediction based on simulated fingerprint data and real data of the sea surface temperature places the time window of a potential collapse between the years 2040 and 2065.

Current hydrological modeling methods combine data-driven Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and traditional physics-based models to address their respective limitations incorrect parameter estimates from rigid physics-based models and the neglect of physical process constraints by ML algorithms. Despite the accuracy of ML in outcome prediction, the integration of scientific knowledge is crucial for reliable predictions. This study introduces a Physics Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model, which merges the process understanding of conceptual hydrological models with the predictive efficiency of ML algorithms. Applied to the Anandapur sub-catchment, the PIML model demonstrates superior performance in forecasting monthly streamflow and actual evapotranspiration over both standalone conceptual models and ML algorithms, ensuring physical consistency of the outputs. This study replicates the methodologies of Bhasme, P., Vagadiya, J., & Bhatia, U. (2022) from their pivotal work on Physics Informed Machine Learning for hydrological processes, utilizing their shared code and datasets to further explore the predictive capabilities in hydrological modeling.

This paper introduces and studies a novel class of online metric problems with long-term demand constraints motivated by emerging applications in the design of sustainable systems. In convex function chasing with a long-term constraint, an online player aims to satisfy a demand by making decisions in a normed vector space, paying a hitting cost based on time-varying convex cost functions which are revealed online, and switching cost defined by the norm. The player is constrained to ensure that the entire demand is satisfied at or before the time horizon ends, and their objective is to minimize their total cost. The generality of this problem makes it applicable to a wide variety of online resource allocation problems; in this paper, we consider one such special case, discussing its connections to other online settings and suggestions towards broad new areas of inquiry in online optimization with long-term constraints. Our motivation to introduce these problems is rooted in an emerging class of carbon-aware control problems for sustainable systems. A shared objective involves minimizing carbon emissions by shifting flexible workloads temporally and/or spatially to better leverage low-carbon electricity generation (e.g., renewables such as solar and wind).

Heat, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems play a critical role in maintaining a comfortable thermal environment and cost approximately 40% of primary energy usage in the building sector. For smart energy management in buildings, usage patterns and their resulting profiles allow the improvement of control systems with prediction capabilities. However, for large-scale HVAC system management, it is difficult to construct a detailed model for each subsystem. In this paper, a new data-driven room temperature prediction model is proposed based on the k-means clustering method. The proposed data-driven temperature prediction approach extracts the system operation feature through historical data analysis and further simplifies the system-level model to improve generalization and computational efficiency. We evaluate the proposed approach in the real world. The results demonstrated that our approach can significantly reduce modeling time without reducing prediction accuracy.

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty of proposed projections. In this paper, we model the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is of major importance to climate in Europe and the US East Coast by transporting warm water to these regions, and has the potential for abrupt collapse. We can generate arbitrarily extreme climate scenarios through arbitrary time scales which we then predict using neural networks. Our analysis shows that the AMOC is predictable using neural networks under a diverse set of climate scenarios. Further experiments reveal that MLPs and Deep Ensembles can learn the physics of the AMOC instead of imitating its progression through autocorrelation. With quantified uncertainty, an intriguing pattern of "spikes" before critical points of collapse in the AMOC casts doubt on previous analyses that predicted an AMOC collapse within this century. Our results show that Bayesian Neural Networks perform poorly compared to more dense architectures and care should be taken when applying neural networks to nonstationary scenarios such as climate projections. Further, our results highlight that big NN models might have difficulty in modeling global Earth System dynamics accurately and be successfully applied in nonstationary climate scenarios due to the physics being challenging for neural networks to capture.

Taxonomies represent an arborescence hierarchical structure that establishes relationships among entities to convey knowledge within a specific domain. Each edge in the taxonomy signifies a hypernym-hyponym relationship. Taxonomies find utility in various real-world applications, such as e-commerce search engines and recommendation systems. Consequently, there arises a necessity to enhance these taxonomies over time. However, manually curating taxonomies with neoteric data presents challenges due to limitations in available human resources and the exponential growth of data. Therefore, it becomes imperative to develop automatic taxonomy expansion methods. Traditional supervised taxonomy expansion approaches encounter difficulties stemming from limited resources, primarily due to the small size of existing taxonomies. This scarcity of training data often leads to overfitting. In this paper, we propose FLAME, a novel approach for taxonomy expansion in low-resource environments by harnessing the capabilities of large language models that are trained on extensive real-world knowledge. LLMs help compensate for the scarcity of domain-specific knowledge. Specifically, FLAME leverages prompting in few-shot settings to extract the inherent knowledge within the LLMs, ascertaining the hypernym entities within the taxonomy. Furthermore, it employs reinforcement learning to fine-tune the large language models, resulting in more accurate predictions. Experiments on three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of FLAME in real-world scenarios, achieving a remarkable improvement of 18.5% in accuracy and 12.3% in Wu & Palmer metric over eight baselines. Furthermore, we elucidate the strengths and weaknesses of FLAME through an extensive case study, error analysis and ablation studies on the benchmarks.

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these challenges, wind power forecasting methods are employed for applications in power management, energy trading, or maintenance scheduling. In this work, we present, evaluate, and compare four machine learning-based wind power forecasting models. Our models correct and improve 48-hour forecasts extracted from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The models are evaluated on datasets from a wind park comprising 65 wind turbines. The best improvement in forecasting error and mean bias was achieved by a convolutional neural network, reducing the average NRMSE down to 22%, coupled with a significant reduction in mean bias, compared to a NRMSE of 35% from the strongly biased baseline model using uncorrected NWP forecasts. Our findings further indicate that changes to neural network architectures play a minor role in affecting the forecasting performance, and that future research should rather investigate changes in the model pipeline. Moreover, we introduce a continuous learning strategy, which is shown to achieve the highest forecasting performance improvements when new data is made available.