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Probabilistic Digital Twin for Misspecified Structural Dynamical Systems via Latent Force Modeling and Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.


On the Effect of Regularization on Nonparametric Mean-Variance Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty quantification. However, overparameterized mean-variance models struggle with signal-to-noise ambiguity, deciding whether prediction targets should be attributed to signal (mean) or noise (variance). At one extreme, models fit all training targets perfectly with zero residual noise, while at the other, they provide constant, uninformative predictions and explain the targets as noise. We observe a sharp phase transition between these extremes, driven by model regularization. Empirical studies with varying regularization levels illustrate this transition, revealing substantial variability across repeated runs. To explain this behavior, we develop a statistical field theory framework, which captures the observed phase transition in alignment with experimental results. This analysis reduces the regularization hyperparameter search space from two dimensions to one, significantly lowering computational costs. Experiments on UCI datasets and the large-scale ClimSim dataset demonstrate robust calibration performance, effectively quantifying predictive uncertainty.


Test Time Training for AC Power Flow Surrogates via Physics and Operational Constraint Refinement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Power Flow (PF) calculation based on machine learning (ML) techniques offer significant computational advantages over traditional numerical methods but often struggle to maintain full physical consistency. This paper introduces a physics-informed test-time training (PI-TTT) framework that enhances the accuracy and feasibility of ML-based PF surrogates by enforcing AC power flow equalities and operational constraints directly at inference time. The proposed method performs a lightweight self-supervised refinement of the surrogate outputs through few gradient-based updates, enabling local adaptation to unseen operating conditions without requiring labeled data. Extensive experiments on the IEEE 14-, 118-, and 300-bus systems and the PEGASE 1354-bus network show that PI-TTT reduces power flow residuals and operational constraint violations by one to two orders of magnitude compared with purely ML-based models, while preserving their computational advantage. The results demonstrate that PI-TTT provides fast, accurate, and physically reliable predictions, representing a promising direction for scalable and physics-consistent learning in power system analysis.


AdS/Deep-Learning made easy II: neural network-based approaches to holography and inverse problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We apply physics-informed machine learning (PIML) to solve inverse problems in holography and classical mechanics, focusing on neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODEs) and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving non-linear differential equations of motion. First, we introduce holographic inverse problems and demonstrate how PIML can reconstruct bulk spacetime and effective potentials from boundary quantum data. To illustrate this, two case studies are explored: the QCD equation of state in holographic QCD and $T$-linear resistivity in holographic strange metals. Additionally, we explicitly show how such holographic problems can be analogized to inverse problems in classical mechanics, modeling frictional forces with neural networks. We also explore Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as an alternative to traditional neural networks, offering more efficient solutions in certain cases. This manuscript aim to provide a systematic framework for using neural networks in inverse problems, serving as a comprehensive reference for researchers in machine learning for high-energy physics, with methodologies that also have broader applications in mathematics, engineering, and the natural sciences.


Hard-Constrained Neural Networks with Physics-Embedded Architecture for Residual Dynamics Learning and Invariant Enforcement in Cyber-Physical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a framework for physics-informed learning in complex cyber-physical systems governed by differential equations with both unknown dynamics and algebraic invariants. First, we formalize the Hybrid Recurrent Physics-Informed Neural Network (HRPINN), a general-purpose architecture that embeds known physics as a hard structural constraint within a recurrent integrator to learn only residual dynamics. Second, we introduce the Projected HRPINN (PHRPINN), a novel extension that integrates a predict-project mechanism to strictly enforce algebraic invariants by design. The framework is supported by a theoretical analysis of its representational capacity. We validate HRPINN on a real-world battery prognostics DAE and evaluate PHRPINN on a suite of standard constrained benchmarks. The results demonstrate the framework's potential for achieving high accuracy and data efficiency, while also highlighting critical trade-offs between physical consistency, computational cost, and numerical stability, providing practical guidance for its deployment.


Closing the Generalization Gap in Parameter-efficient Federated Edge Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated edge learning (FEEL) provides a promising foundation for edge artificial intelligence (AI) by enabling collaborative model training while preserving data privacy. However, limited and heterogeneous local datasets, as well as resource-constrained deployment, severely degrade both model generalization and resource utilization, leading to a compromised learning performance. Therefore, we propose a parameter-efficient FEEL framework that jointly leverages model pruning and client selection to tackle such challenges. First, we derive an information-theoretic generalization statement that characterizes the discrepancy between training and testing function losses and embed it into the convergence analysis. It reveals that a larger local generalization statement can undermine the global convergence. Then, we formulate a generalization-aware average squared gradient norm bound minimization problem, by jointly optimizing the pruning ratios, client selection, and communication-computation resources under energy and delay constraints. Despite its non-convexity, the resulting mixed-integer problem is efficiently solved via an alternating optimization algorithm. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed design achieves superior learning performance than state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of coupling generalization-aware analysis with system-level optimization for efficient FEEL.


Learning to Predict Aboveground Biomass from RGB Images with 3D Synthetic Scenes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forests play a critical role in global ecosystems by supporting biodiversity and mitigating climate change via carbon sequestration. Accurate aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation is essential for assessing carbon storage and wildfire fuel loads, yet traditional methods rely on labor-intensive field measurements or remote sensing approaches with significant limitations in dense vegetation. In this work, we propose a novel learning-based method for estimating AGB from a single ground-based RGB image. We frame this as a dense prediction task, introducing AGB density maps, where each pixel represents tree biomass normalized by the plot area and each tree's image area. We leverage the recently introduced synthetic 3D SPREAD dataset, which provides realistic forest scenes with per-image tree attributes (height, trunk and canopy diameter) and instance segmentation masks. Using these assets, we compute AGB via allometric equations and train a model to predict AGB density maps, integrating them to recover the AGB estimate for the captured scene. Our approach achieves a median AGB estimation error of 1.22 kg/m^2 on held-out SPREAD data and 1.94 kg/m^2 on a real-image dataset. To our knowledge, this is the first method to estimate aboveground biomass directly from a single RGB image, opening up the possibility for a scalable, interpretable, and cost-effective solution for forest monitoring, while also enabling broader participation through citizen science initiatives.


Field-programmable dynamics in a soft magnetic actuator enabling true random number generation and reservoir computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Physical Sciences and Earth Sciences, University of Messina, 8166 Messina, Italy Complex and even chaotic dynamics, though prevalent in many natural and engineered systems, has been largely avoided in the design of electromechanical systems due to concerns about wear and controlability. Here, we demonstrate that complex dynamics might be particularly advantageous in soft robotics, offering new functionalities beyond motion not easily achievable with traditional actuation methods. We designed and realized resilient magnetic soft actuators capable of operating in a tunable dynamic regime for tens of thousands cycles without fatigue. We experimentally demonstrated the application of these actuators for true random number generation and stochastic computing. These findings show that exploring the complex dynamics in soft robotics would extend the application scenarios in soft computing, human-robot interaction and collaborative robots as we demonstrate with biomimetic blinking and randomized voice modulation. A large number of mechanical systems, including simple ones such as the double pendulum, exhibit dynamics characterized by deterministic periodic and chaotic responses depending on the excitation frequency f and amplitude A of the applied force [1]. Mechanical systems with a tendency to chaotisation demonstrate multiple resonances and various transitions to chaos [2]. Today, the concept of complexity and, especially, deterministic chaos that refers to systems without stochastic fluctuations jet losing stability of phase space trajectories is explored for a variety of directions [3] even including biological systems [4] or optics [5]. In particular, chaos is a fundamental aspect of electromechanical systems and is broadly explored in motion planning for mobile rigid robots, fluid mixing, and improving energy harvesting, as well as in mechanisms used in washing machines, dishwashers, and air conditioners [6]. Although the analysis of traditional robotics and mechanisms has revealed inherent chaotic dynamics [7], chaos can also be intentionally generated through nonlinear feedback [6] to achieve specific functionalities. In contrast to rigid mechanisms, soft actuators can facilitate transition into complex dynamics without the need for dedicated feedback algorithms. Mechanically soft actuators do not possess any rigid components in their embodiment rendering them ideally suited to explore complex and even chaotic dynamics which is typically observed at higher frequencies (Supplementary Tables 1 and 2). The inherent nonlinear oscillations emerging in soft actuators for specific parameter values [8, 9] can be applied for secure, biomimetic, and soft computing applications.


Energy-Efficient Vision Transformer Inference for Edge-AI Deployment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--The growing deployment of Vision Transformers (ViTs) on energy-constrained devices requires evaluation methods that go beyond accuracy alone. We present a two-stage pipeline for assessing ViT energy efficiency that combines device-agnostic model selection with device-related measurements. The device-agnostic stage uses the NetScore metric for screening; the device-related stage ranks models with the Sustainable Accuracy Metric (SAM). Results show that hybrid models such as LeViT_Conv_192 reduce energy by up to 53% on TX2 relative to a ViT baseline (e.g., SAM5=1.44 on TX2/CIF AR-10), while distilled models such as TinyViT-11M_Distilled excel on the mobile GPU (e.g., SAM5=1.72 on RTX 3050/CIF AR-10 and SAM5=0.76 on RTX 3050/ImageNet-1K). ECENTL Y, Vision Transformers (ViTs) have emerged as the state-of-the-art in many of computer vision tasks, from image classification to object detection [1].


Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading in Dairy Farms using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of renewable energy resources in rural areas, such as dairy farming communities, enables decentralized energy management through Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading. This research highlights the role of P2P trading in efficient energy distribution and its synergy with advanced optimization techniques. While traditional rule-based methods perform well under stable conditions, they struggle in dynamic environments. To address this, Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), specifically Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Deep Q-Networks (DQN), is combined with community/distributed P2P trading mechanisms. By incorporating auction-based market clearing, a price advisor agent, and load and battery management, the approach achieves significant improvements. Results show that, compared to baseline models, DQN reduces electricity costs by 14.2% in Ireland and 5.16% in Finland, while increasing electricity revenue by 7.24% and 12.73%, respectively. PPO achieves the lowest peak hour demand, reducing it by 55.5% in Ireland, while DQN reduces peak hour demand by 50.0% in Ireland and 27.02% in Finland. These improvements are attributed to both MARL algorithms and P2P energy trading, which together results in electricity cost and peak hour demand reduction, and increase electricity selling revenue. This study highlights the complementary strengths of DQN, PPO, and P2P trading in achieving efficient, adaptable, and sustainable energy management in rural communities.