Modern IoT deployments for environmental sensing produce high volume spatiotemporal data to support downstream tasks such as forecasting, typically powered by machine learning models. While existing filtering and strategic deployment techniques optimize collected data volume at the edge, they overlook how variations in sampling frequencies and spatial coverage affect downstream model performance. In many forecasting models, incorporating data from additional sensors denoise predictions by providing broader spatial contexts. This interplay between sampling frequency, spatial coverage and different forecasting model architectures remain underexplored. This work presents a systematic study of forecasting models - classical models (VAR), neural networks (GRU, Transformer), spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs), and time series foundation models (TSFMs: Chronos Moirai, TimesFM) under varying spatial sensor nodes density and sampling intervals using real-world temperature data in a wireless sensor network. Our results show that STGNNs are effective when sensor deployments are sparse and sampling rate is moderate, leveraging spatial correlations via encoded graph structure to compensate for limited coverage. In contrast, TSFMs perform competitively at high frequencies but degrade when spatial coverage from neighboring sensors is reduced. Crucially, the multivariate TSFM Moirai outperforms all models by natively learning cross-sensor dependencies. These findings offer actionable insights for building efficient forecasting pipelines in spatio-temporal systems. All code for model configurations, training, dataset, and logs are open-sourced for reproducibility: https://github.com/UIUC-MONET-Projects/Benchmarking-Spatiotemporal-Forecast-Models

Should LLM reasoning live in a separate module, or within a single model's forward pass and representational space? We study dual-architecture latent reasoning, where a fluent Base exchanges latent messages with a Coprocessor, and test two hypotheses aimed at improving latent communication over Liu et al. (2024): (H1) increase channel capacity; (H2) learn communication via joint finetuning. Under matched latent-token budgets on GPT-2 and Qwen-3, H2 is consistently strongest while H1 yields modest gains. A unified soft-embedding baseline, a single model with the same forward pass and shared representations, using the same latent-token budget, nearly matches H2 and surpasses H1, suggesting current dual designs mostly add compute rather than qualitatively improving reasoning. Across GSM8K, ProsQA, and a Countdown stress test with increasing branching factor, scaling the latent-token budget beyond small values fails to improve robustness. Latent analyses show overlapping subspaces with limited specialization, consistent with weak reasoning gains. We conclude dual-model latent reasoning remains promising in principle, but likely requires objectives and training schedules that explicitly shape latent spaces for algorithmic planning.

While deep learning has achieved impressive performance in time series forecasting, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand its decision-making process for building trust in high-stakes scenarios. Existing interpretable models often provide only local and partial explanations, lacking the capability to reveal how heterogeneous and interacting input variables jointly shape the overall temporal patterns in the forecast curve. We propose ProtoTS, a novel interpretable forecasting framework that achieves both high accuracy and transparent decision-making through modeling prototypical temporal patterns. ProtoTS computes instance-prototype similarity based on a denoised representation that preserves abundant heterogeneous information. The prototypes are organized hierarchically to capture global temporal patterns with coarse prototypes while capturing finer-grained local variations with detailed prototypes, enabling expert steering and multi-level interpretability. Experiments on multiple realistic benchmarks, including a newly released LOF dataset, show that ProtoTS not only exceeds existing methods in forecast accuracy but also delivers expert-steerable interpretations for better model understanding and decision support. Time series forecasting has been widely applied in high-stakes scenarios such as load forecasting (Jiang et al., 2024; Y ang et al., 2023), energy management (Deb et al., 2017; Weron, 2014), weather prediction (Angryk et al., 2020; Karevan & Suykens, 2020), all of which involve considerable financial impacts. In these applications, while achieving high forecast accuracy is crucial, understanding why and how the model makes specific predictions is equally important. It aids in preventing substantial financial losses and building the trust necessary (Rojat et al., 2021). A range of explainable time series forecasting methods have been developed to simultaneously ensure interpretability and good predictive performance (Oreshkin et al., 2019; Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024; Lin et al., 2024). However, their overall interpretability and potential for further performance improvement are limited, since they mainly provide local, partial explanations for both the output and input sides: C1: For the output side, existing methods (Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024) mainly explain the prediction at individual time steps, lacking the ability to help users quickly interpret the reasons behind the overall trend in the forecast curve. For each instance, model computes its similarity to all prototypes to form a prediction, enabling detailed local interpretation.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) are a promising alternative to time-consuming Gaussian process (GP) inference for creating fast surrogates of physical systems. PFN reduces the computational burden of GP-training by replacing Bayesian inference in GP with a single forward pass of a learned prediction model. We introduce Decoupled-V alue Attention (DV A)- motivated by the GP property that the function space is fully characterized by the kernel over inputs and the predictive mean is a weighted sum of training targets. DV A computes similarities from inputs only and propagates labels solely through values. Thus, the proposed DV A mirrors the GP update while remaining kernel-free. We demonstrate that PFNs are backbone architecture invariant and the crucial factor for scaling PFNs is the attention rule rather than the architecture itself. Specifically, our results demonstrate that (a) localized attention consistently reduces out-of-sample validation loss in PFNs across different dimensional settings, with validation loss reduced by more than 50% in five-and ten-dimensional cases, and (b) the role of attention is more decisive than the choice of backbone architecture, showing that CNN, RNN and LSTM-based PFNs can perform at par with their Transformer-based counterparts. Bayesian inference provides a powerful framework for reasoning under uncertainty, with methods like Gaussian processes (GPs) offering well-calibrated predictions and principled uncertainty estimates (Williams & Rasmussen, 2006). However, the practical application of these methods is often hindered by the heavy computational burden of learning kernel hyperparameters. For example, exact GP inference scales cubically with the number of data points, making its deployment infeasible for large datasets or problems requiring repeated training. Consider a physical system where a surrogate GP is chosen due to its uncertainty estimates and differentiable closed-form expressions. However, the underlying input dataset and configuration changes frequently, and the surrogate is supposed to work for these new, previously unseen variations. In such conditions, GP needs to be trained repeatedly, incurring significant computing cost, each time the dataset changes.

The Agentic Paradigm faces a significant Software Engineering Absence, yielding Agentic systems commonly lacking robustness, observability, and evolvability. To address these deficiencies, we propose a principled engineering framework comprising Runtime Goal Refinement (RGR), Observable Cognitive Architecture (OCA), and Evolutionary Memory Architecture (EMA). In this framework, RGR ensures robustness and intent alignment via knowledge-constrained refinement and human-in-the-loop clarification; OCA builds an observable and maintainable white-box architecture using component decoupling, logic layering, and state-control separation; and EMA employs an execution-evolution dual-loop for evolvability. We implemented and empirically validated Fairy, a mobile GUI agent based on this framework. On RealMobile-Eval, our novel benchmark for ambiguous and complex tasks, Fairy outperformed the best SoTA baseline in user requirement completion by 33.7%. Subsequent controlled experiments, human-subject studies, and ablation studies further confirmed that the RGR enhances refinement accuracy and prevents intent deviation; the OCA improves maintainability; and the EMA is crucial for long-term performance. This research provides empirically validated specifications and a practical blueprint for building reliable, observable, and evolvable Agentic AI systems.

World models have shown potential in artificial intelligence by predicting and reasoning about world states beyond direct observations. However, existing approaches are predominantly evaluated in synthetic environments or constrained scene settings, limiting their validation in real-world contexts with broad spatial coverage and complex semantics. Meanwhile, remote sensing applications urgently require spatial reasoning capabilities for disaster response and urban planning. This paper bridges these gaps by introducing the first framework for world modeling in remote sensing. We formulate remote sensing world modeling as direction-conditioned spatial extrapolation, where models generate semantically consistent adjacent image tiles given a central observation and directional instruction. To enable rigorous evaluation, we develop RSWISE (Remote Sensing World-Image Spatial Evaluation), a benchmark containing 1,600 evaluation tasks across four scenarios: general, flood, urban, and rural. RSWISE combines visual fidelity assessment with instruction compliance evaluation using GPT-4o as a semantic judge, ensuring models genuinely perform spatial reasoning rather than simple replication. Afterwards, we present RemoteBAGEL, a unified multimodal model fine-tuned on remote sensing data for spatial extrapolation tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RemoteBAGEL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on RSWISE.

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying data-generating process. In this paper, we propose a novel Conformal Prediction for Time-series with Change points (CPTC) algorithm, addressing this gap by integrating a model to predict the underlying state with online conformal prediction to model uncertainties in non-stationary time series. We prove CPTC's validity and improved adaptivity in the time series setting under minimum assumptions, and demonstrate CPTC's practical effectiveness on 6 synthetic and real-world datasets, showing improved validity and adaptivity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

To address the lack of public power system data for machine learning research in energy networks, we investigate the use of variational graph autoencoders (VGAEs) for synthetic distribution grid generation. Using two open-source datasets, ENGAGE and DINGO, we evaluate four decoder variants and compare generated networks against the original grids using structural and spectral metrics. Results indicate that simple decoders fail to capture realistic topologies, while GCN-based approaches achieve strong fidelity on ENGAGE but struggle on the more complex DINGO dataset, producing artifacts such as disconnected components and repeated motifs. These findings highlight both the promise and limitations of VGAEs for grid synthesis, underscoring the need for more expressive generative models and robust evaluation. We release our models and analysis as open source to support benchmarking and accelerate progress in ML-driven power system research.

Generation IV (Gen-IV) nuclear power plants are envisioned to replace the current reactor fleet, bringing improvements in performance, safety, reliability, and sustainability. However, large cost investments currently inhibit the deployment of these advanced reactor concepts. Digital twins bridge real-world systems with digital tools to reduce costs, enhance decision-making, and boost operational efficiency. In this work, a digital twin framework is designed to operate the Gen-IV Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor, utilizing data-enhanced methods to optimize operational and maintenance policies while adhering to system constraints. The closed-loop framework integrates surrogate modeling, reinforcement learning, and Bayesian inference to streamline end-to-end communication for online regulation and self-adjustment. Reinforcement learning is used to consider component health and degradation to drive the target power generations, with constraints enforced through a Reference Governor control algorithm that ensures compliance with pump flow rate and temperature limits. These input driving modules benefit from detailed online simulations that are assimilated to measurement data with Bayesian filtering. The digital twin is demonstrated in three case studies: a one-year long-term operational period showcasing maintenance planning capabilities, short-term accuracy refinement with high-frequency measurements, and system shock capturing that demonstrates real-time recalibration capabilities when change in boundary conditions. These demonstrations validate robustness for health-aware and constraint-informed nuclear plant operation, with general applicability to other advanced reactor concepts and complex engineering systems.

Addressing climate change requires coordinated policy efforts of nations worldwide. These efforts are informed by scientific reports, which rely in part on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), prominent tools used to assess the economic impacts of climate policies. However, traditional IAMs optimize policies based on a single objective, limiting their ability to capture the trade-offs among economic growth, temperature goals, and climate justice. As a result, policy recommendations have been criticized for perpetuating inequalities, fueling disagreements during policy negotiations. We introduce Justice, the first framework integrating IAM with Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL). By incorporating multiple objectives, Justice generates policy recommendations that shed light on equity while balancing climate and economic goals. Further, using multiple agents can provide a realistic representation of the interactions among the diverse policy actors. We identify equitable Pareto-optimal policies using our framework, which facilitates deliberative decision-making by presenting policymakers with the inherent trade-offs in climate and economic policy.