In Vapor Cycle Systems, the mass flow sensor playsa key role for different monitoring and control purposes. However,physical sensors can be inaccurate, heavy, cumbersome, expensive orhighly sensitive to vibrations, which is especially problematic whenembedded into an aircraft. The conception of a virtual sensor, basedon other standard sensors, is a good alternative. This paper has twomain objectives. Firstly, a data-driven model using a ConvolutionalNeural Network is proposed to estimate the mass flow of thecompressor. We show that it significantly outperforms the standardPolynomial Regression model (thermodynamic maps), in terms of thestandard MSE metric and Engineer Performance metrics. Secondly,a semi-automatic segmentation method is proposed to compute theEngineer Performance metrics for real datasets, as the standard MSEmetric may pose risks in analyzing the dynamic behavior of VaporCycle Systems.

This study assessed the effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting poverty levels in the Philippines using five boosting algorithms: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), CatBoosting (CatBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). CatBoost emerged as the superior model and achieved the highest scores across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score at 91 percent, while XGBoost and GBM followed closely with 89 percent and 88 percent respectively. Additionally, the research examined the computational efficiency of these models to analyze the balance between training time, testing speed, and model size factors crucial for real-world applications. Despite its longer training duration, CatBoost demonstrated high testing efficiency. These results indicate that machine learning can aid in poverty prediction and in the development of targeted policy interventions. Future studies should focus on incorporating a wider variety of data to enhance the predictive accuracy and policy utility of these models.

Recent studies have attempted to refine the Transformer architecture to demonstrate its effectiveness in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Despite surpassing many linear forecasting models with ever-improving performance, we remain skeptical of Transformers as a solution for LTSF. We attribute the effectiveness of these models largely to the adopted Patch mechanism, which enhances sequence locality to an extent yet fails to fully address the loss of temporal information inherent to the permutation-invariant self-attention mechanism. Further investigation suggests that simple linear layers augmented with the Patch mechanism may outperform complex Transformer-based LTSF models. Moreover, diverging from models that use channel independence, our research underscores the importance of cross-variable interactions in enhancing the performance of multivariate time series forecasting. The interaction information between variables is highly valuable but has been misapplied in past studies, leading to suboptimal cross-variable models. Based on these insights, we propose a novel and simple Patch-based Decomposed MLP (PDMLP) for LTSF tasks. Specifically, we employ simple moving averages to extract smooth components and noise-containing residuals from time series data, engaging in semantic information interchange through channel mixing and specializing in random noise with channel independence processing. The PDMLP model consistently achieves state-of-the-art results on several real-world datasets. We hope this surprising finding will spur new research directions in the LTSF field and pave the way for more efficient and concise solutions.

In the evolving landscape of natural language processing (NLP), fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) with first-order (FO) optimizers like SGD and Adam has become standard. Yet, as LLMs grow {in size}, the substantial memory overhead from back-propagation (BP) for FO gradient computation presents a significant challenge. Addressing this issue is crucial, especially for applications like on-device training where memory efficiency is paramount. This paper proposes a shift towards BP-free, zeroth-order (ZO) optimization as a solution for reducing memory costs during LLM fine-tuning, building on the initial concept introduced by MeZO. Unlike traditional ZO-SGD methods, our work expands the exploration to a wider array of ZO optimization techniques, through a comprehensive, first-of-its-kind benchmarking study across five LLM families (Roberta, OPT, LLaMA, Vicuna, Mistral), three task complexities, and five fine-tuning schemes. Our study unveils previously overlooked optimization principles, highlighting the importance of task alignment, the role of the forward gradient method, and the balance between algorithm complexity and fine-tuning performance. We further introduce novel enhancements to ZO optimization, including block-wise descent, hybrid training, and gradient sparsity. Our study offers a promising direction for achieving further memory-efficient LLM fine-tuning. Codes to reproduce all our experiments are at https://github.com/ZO-Bench/ZO-LLM .

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning framework in which a set of local communities collaboratively learn a shared global model while retaining all training data locally within each community. Two notions of fairness have recently emerged as important issues for federated learning: group fairness and community fairness. Group fairness requires that a model's decisions do not favor any particular group based on a set of legally protected attributes such as race or gender. Community fairness requires that global models exhibit similar levels of performance (accuracy) across all collaborating communities. Both fairness concepts can coexist within an FL framework, but the existing literature has focused on either one concept or the other. This paper proposes and analyzes a post-processing fair federated learning (FFL) framework called post-FFL. Post-FFL uses a linear program to simultaneously enforce group and community fairness while maximizing the utility of the global model. Because Post-FFL is a post-processing approach, it can be used with existing FL training pipelines whose convergence properties are well understood. This paper uses post-FFL on real-world datasets to mimic how hospital networks, for example, use federated learning to deliver community health care. Theoretical results bound the accuracy lost when post-FFL enforces both notion of fairness. Experimental results illustrate that post-FFL simultaneously improves both group and community fairness in FL. Moreover, post-FFL outperforms the existing in-processing fair federated learning in terms of improving both notions of fairness, communication efficiency and computation cost.

Fast feedforward networks (FFFs) are a class of neural networks that exploit the observation that different regions of the input space activate distinct subsets of neurons in wide networks. FFFs partition the input space into separate sections using a differentiable binary tree of neurons and during inference descend the binary tree in order to improve computational efficiency. Inspired by Mixture of Experts (MoE) research, we propose the incorporation of load balancing and Master Leaf techniques into the FFF architecture to improve performance and simplify the training process. We reproduce experiments found in literature and present results on FFF models enhanced using these techniques. The proposed architecture and training recipe achieves up to 16.3% and 3% absolute classification accuracy increase in training and test accuracy, respectively, compared to the original FFF architecture. Additionally, we observe a smaller variance in the results compared to those reported in prior research. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating MoE-inspired techniques into FFFs for developing more accurate and efficient models.

Estimating a policy that maps states to actions is a central problem in reinforcement learning. Traditionally, policies are inferred from the so called value functions (VFs), but exact VF computation suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Policy gradient (PG) methods bypass this by learning directly a parametric stochastic policy. Typically, the parameters of the policy are estimated using neural networks (NNs) tuned via stochastic gradient descent. However, finding adequate NN architectures can be challenging, and convergence issues are common as well. In this paper, we put forth low-rank matrix-based models to estimate efficiently the parameters of PG algorithms. We collect the parameters of the stochastic policy into a matrix, and then, we leverage matrix-completion techniques to promote (enforce) low rank. We demonstrate via numerical studies how low-rank matrix-based policy models reduce the computational and sample complexities relative to NN models, while achieving a similar aggregated reward.

Federated learning (FL), as an emerging collaborative learning paradigm, has garnered significant attention due to its capacity to preserve privacy within distributed learning systems. In these systems, clients collaboratively train a unified neural network model using their local datasets and share model parameters rather than raw data, enhancing privacy. Predominantly, FL systems are designed for mobile and edge computing environments where training typically occurs over wireless networks. Consequently, as model sizes increase, the conventional FL frameworks increasingly consume substantial communication resources. To address this challenge and improve communication efficiency, this paper introduces a novel hierarchical FL framework that integrates the benefits of clustered FL and model compression. We present an adaptive clustering algorithm that identifies a core client and dynamically organizes clients into clusters. Furthermore, to enhance transmission efficiency, each core client implements a local aggregation with compression (LC aggregation) algorithm after collecting compressed models from other clients within the same cluster. Simulation results affirm that our proposed algorithms not only maintain comparable predictive accuracy but also significantly reduce energy consumption relative to existing FL mechanisms.

Data-driven deep learning has emerged as the new paradigm to model complex physical space-time systems. These data-driven methods learn patterns by optimizing statistical metrics and tend to overlook the adherence to physical laws, unlike traditional model-driven numerical methods. Thus, they often generate predictions that are not physically realistic. On the other hand, by sampling a large amount of high quality predictions from a data-driven model, some predictions will be more physically plausible than the others and closer to what will happen in the future. Based on this observation, we propose \emph{Beam search by Vector Quantization} (BeamVQ) to enhance the physical alignment of data-driven space-time forecasting models. The key of BeamVQ is to train model on self-generated samples filtered with physics-aware metrics. To be flexibly support different backbone architectures, BeamVQ leverages a code bank to transform any encoder-decoder model to the continuous state space into discrete codes. Afterwards, it iteratively employs beam search to sample high-quality sequences, retains those with the highest physics-aware scores, and trains model on the new dataset. Comprehensive experiments show that BeamVQ not only gave an average statistical skill score boost for more than 32% for ten backbones on five datasets, but also significantly enhances physics-aware metrics.

Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, and energy trading. While numerous models effectively predict short-term (hours to a few days) hourly load, mid-term forecasting solutions remain scarce. In mid-term load forecasting, besides daily, weekly, and annual seasonal and autoregressive effects, capturing weather and holiday effects, as well as socio-economic non-stationarities in the data, poses significant modeling challenges. To address these challenges, we propose a novel forecasting method using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) built from interpretable P-splines and enhanced with autoregressive post-processing. This model uses smoothed temperatures, Error-Trend-Seasonal (ETS) modeled non-stationary states, a nuanced representation of holiday effects with weekday variations, and seasonal information as input. The proposed model is evaluated on load data from 24 European countries. This analysis demonstrates that the model not only has significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods but also offers valuable insights into the influence of individual components on predicted load, given its full interpretability. Achieving performance akin to day-ahead TSO forecasts in fast computation times of a few seconds for several years of hourly data underscores the model's potential for practical application in the power system industry.