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TriQXNet: Forecasting Dst Index from Solar Wind Data Using an Interpretable Parallel Classical-Quantum Framework with Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Geomagnetic storms, caused by solar wind energy transfer to Earth's magnetic field, can disrupt critical infrastructure like GPS, satellite communications, and power grids. The disturbance storm-time (Dst) index measures storm intensity. Despite advancements in empirical, physics-based, and machine-learning models using real-time solar wind data, accurately forecasting extreme geomagnetic events remains challenging due to noise and sensor failures. This research introduces TriQXNet, a novel hybrid classical-quantum neural network for Dst forecasting. Our model integrates classical and quantum computing, conformal prediction, and explainable AI (XAI) within a hybrid architecture. To ensure high-quality input data, we developed a comprehensive preprocessing pipeline that included feature selection, normalization, aggregation, and imputation. TriQXNet processes preprocessed solar wind data from NASA's ACE and NOAA's DSCOVR satellites, predicting the Dst index for the current hour and the next, providing vital advance notice to mitigate geomagnetic storm impacts. TriQXNet outperforms 13 state-of-the-art hybrid deep-learning models, achieving a root mean squared error of 9.27 nanoteslas (nT). Rigorous evaluation through 10-fold cross-validated paired t-tests confirmed its superior performance with 95% confidence. Conformal prediction techniques provide quantifiable uncertainty, which is essential for operational decisions, while XAI methods like ShapTime enhance interpretability. Comparative analysis shows TriQXNet's superior forecasting accuracy, setting a new level of expectations for geomagnetic storm prediction and highlighting the potential of classical-quantum hybrid models in space weather forecasting.


Heuristic Predictive Control for Multi-Robot Flocking in Congested Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-robot flocking possesses extraordinary advantages over a single-robot system in diverse domains, but it is challenging to ensure safe and optimal performance in congested environments. Hence, this paper is focused on the investigation of distributed optimal flocking control for multiple robots in crowded environments. A heuristic predictive control solution is proposed based on a Gibbs Random Field (GRF), in which bio-inspired potential functions are used to characterize robot-robot and robot-environment interactions. The optimal solution is obtained by maximizing a posteriori joint distribution of the GRF in a certain future time instant. A gradient-based heuristic solution is developed, which could significantly speed up the computation of the optimal control. Mathematical analysis is also conducted to show the validity of the heuristic solution. Multiple collision risk levels are designed to improve the collision avoidance performance of robots in dynamic environments. The proposed heuristic predictive control is evaluated comprehensively from multiple perspectives based on different metrics in a challenging simulation environment. The competence of the proposed algorithm is validated via the comparison with the non-heuristic predictive control and two existing popular flocking control methods. Real-life experiments are also performed using four quadrotor UAVs to further demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed design.


Empirical analysis of Biding Precedent efficiency in the Brazilian Supreme Court via Similar Case Retrieval

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Binding precedents (S\'umulas Vinculantes) constitute a juridical instrument unique to the Brazilian legal system and whose objectives include the protection of the Federal Supreme Court against repetitive demands. Studies of the effectiveness of these instruments in decreasing the Court's exposure to similar cases, however, indicate that they tend to fail in such a direction, with some of the binding precedents seemingly creating new demands. We empirically assess the legal impact of five binding precedents, 11, 14, 17, 26 and 37, at the highest court level through their effects on the legal subjects they address. This analysis is only possible through the comparison of the Court's ruling about the precedents' themes before they are created, which means that these decisions should be detected through techniques of Similar Case Retrieval. The contributions of this article are therefore twofold: on the mathematical side, we compare the uses of different methods of Natural Language Processing -- TF-IDF, LSTM, BERT, and regex -- for Similar Case Retrieval, whereas on the legal side, we contrast the inefficiency of these binding precedents with a set of hypotheses that may justify their repeated usage. We observe that the deep learning models performed significantly worse in the specific Similar Case Retrieval task and that the reasons for binding precedents to fail in responding to repetitive demand are heterogeneous and case-dependent, making it impossible to single out a specific cause.


Decoding Climate Disagreement: A Graph Neural Network-Based Approach to Understanding Social Media Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work introduces the ClimateSent-GAT Model, an innovative method that integrates Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with techniques from natural language processing to accurately identify and predict disagreements within Reddit comment-reply pairs. Our model classifies disagreements into three categories: agree, disagree, and neutral. Leveraging the inherent graph structure of Reddit comment-reply pairs, the model significantly outperforms existing benchmarks by capturing complex interaction patterns and sentiment dynamics. This research advances graph-based NLP methodologies and provides actionable insights for policymakers and educators in climate science communication.


Weak baselines and reporting biases lead to overoptimism in machine learning for fluid-related partial differential equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the most promising applications of machine learning (ML) in computational physics is to accelerate the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The key objective of ML-based PDE solvers is to output a sufficiently accurate solution faster than standard numerical methods, which are used as a baseline comparison. We first perform a systematic review of the ML-for-PDE solving literature. Of articles that use ML to solve a fluid-related PDE and claim to outperform a standard numerical method, we determine that 79% (60/76) compare to a weak baseline. Second, we find evidence that reporting biases, especially outcome reporting bias and publication bias, are widespread. We conclude that ML-for-PDE solving research is overoptimistic: weak baselines lead to overly positive results, while reporting biases lead to underreporting of negative results. To a large extent, these issues appear to be caused by factors similar to those of past reproducibility crises: researcher degrees of freedom and a bias towards positive results. We call for bottom-up cultural changes to minimize biased reporting as well as top-down structural reforms intended to reduce perverse incentives for doing so.


A Predictive Model Based on Transformer with Statistical Feature Embedding in Manufacturing Sensor Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the manufacturing process, sensor data collected from equipment is crucial for building predictive models to manage processes and improve productivity. However, in the field, it is challenging to gather sufficient data to build robust models. This study proposes a novel predictive model based on the Transformer, utilizing statistical feature embedding and window positional encoding. Statistical features provide an effective representation of sensor data, and the embedding enables the Transformer to learn both time- and sensor-related information. Window positional encoding captures precise time details from the feature embedding. The model's performance is evaluated in two problems: fault detection and virtual metrology, showing superior results compared to baseline models. This improvement is attributed to the efficient use of parameters, which is particularly beneficial for sensor data that often has limited sample sizes. The results support the model's applicability across various manufacturing industries, demonstrating its potential for enhancing process management and yield.


Mobile Edge Intelligence for Large Language Models: A Contemporary Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

On-device large language models (LLMs), referring to running LLMs on edge devices, have raised considerable interest owing to their superior privacy, reduced latency, and bandwidth saving. Nonetheless, the capabilities of on-device LLMs are intrinsically constrained by the limited capacity of edge devices compared to the much more powerful cloud centers. To bridge the gap between cloud-based and on-device AI, mobile edge intelligence (MEI) presents a viable solution to this problem by provisioning AI capabilities within the edge of mobile networks with improved privacy and latency relative to cloud computing. MEI sits between on-device AI and cloud-based AI, featuring wireless communications and more powerful computing resources than end devices. This article provides a contemporary survey on harnessing MEI for LLMs. We first cover the preliminaries of LLMs, starting with LLMs and MEI, followed by resource-efficient LLM techniques. We then illustrate several killer applications to demonstrate the need for deploying LLMs at the network edge and present an architectural overview of MEI for LLMs (MEI4LLM). Subsequently, we delve into various aspects of MEI4LLM, extensively covering edge LLM caching and delivery, edge LLM training, and edge LLM inference. Finally, we identify future research opportunities. We aim to inspire researchers in the field to leverage mobile edge computing to facilitate LLM deployment in close proximity to users, thereby unleashing the potential of LLMs across various privacy- and delay-sensitive applications.


Sampling and active learning methods for network reliability estimation using K-terminal spanning tree

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Network reliability analysis remains a challenge due to the increasing size and complexity of networks. This paper presents a novel sampling method and an active learning method for efficient and accurate network reliability estimation under node failure and edge failure scenarios. The proposed sampling method adopts Monte Carlo technique to sample component lifetimes and the K-terminal spanning tree algorithm to accelerate structure function computation. Unlike existing methods that compute only one structure function value per sample, our method generates multiple component state vectors and corresponding structure function values from each sample. Network reliability is estimated based on survival signatures derived from these values. A transformation technique extends this method to handle both node failure and edge failure. To enhance efficiency of proposed sampling method and achieve adaptability to network topology changes, we introduce an active learning method utilizing a random forest (RF) classifier. This classifier directly predicts structure function values, integrates network behaviors across diverse topologies, and undergoes iterative refinement to enhance predictive accuracy. Importantly, the trained RF classifier can directly predict reliability for variant networks, a capability beyond the sampling method alone. Through investigating several network examples and two practical applications, the effectiveness of both proposed methods is demonstrated.


Induction Heads as an Essential Mechanism for Pattern Matching in In-context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As Large language models have shown a remarkable a significant milestone in this area, Elhage et al. ability to learn and perform complex tasks through (2021) demonstrated the existence of induction in-context learning (ICL) (Brown et al., 2020; Touvron heads in Transformer LMs. These heads scan the et al., 2023b). In ICL, the model receives context for previous instances of the current token a demonstration context and a query question as using a prefix matching mechanism, which identifies a prompt for prediction. Unlike supervised learning, if and where a token has appeared before. ICL utilises the pretrained model's capabilities If a matching token is found, the head employs to recognise and replicate patterns within the a copying mechanism to increase the probability demonstration context, thereby enabling accurate of the subsequent token, facilitating exact or approximate predictions for the query without the use of gradient repetition of sequences and embodying updates.


Towards Energy-Aware Federated Learning via MARL: A Dual-Selection Approach for Model and Client

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although Federated Learning (FL) is promising in knowledge sharing for heterogeneous Artificial Intelligence of Thing (AIoT) devices, their training performance and energy efficacy are severely restricted in practical battery-driven scenarios due to the ``wooden barrel effect'' caused by the mismatch between homogeneous model paradigms and heterogeneous device capability. As a result, due to various kinds of differences among devices, it is hard for existing FL methods to conduct training effectively in energy-constrained scenarios, such as battery constraints of devices. To tackle the above issues, we propose an energy-aware FL framework named DR-FL, which considers the energy constraints in both clients and heterogeneous deep learning models to enable energy-efficient FL. Unlike Vanilla FL, DR-FL adopts our proposed Muti-Agents Reinforcement Learning (MARL)-based dual-selection method, which allows participated devices to make contributions to the global model effectively and adaptively based on their computing capabilities and energy capacities in a MARL-based manner. Experiments conducted with various widely recognized datasets demonstrate that DR-FL has the capability to optimize the exchange of knowledge among diverse models in large-scale AIoT systems while adhering to energy limitations. Additionally, it improves the performance of each individual heterogeneous device's model.