Modeling Socioeconomic Systems: ABMs Socioeconomic systems exhibit intricate patterns of interaction and adaptation, e.g., between social groups and to changing environmental and economic conditions, reflecting a degree of complexity that challenges current methods for analysis and prediction of these systems [1, 2]. Modeling the complexity of these systems often requires detailed knowledge of the interacting components, their associated scales, and sufficient resolution of these details such that bottom-up emergent properties can be observed. Agent-based models (ABMs) are a computational modeling tool to resolve these facets of complex social science problems. ABMs simulate a large number of agents in a shared environment: through agent-to-agent and agent-environment interactions, ABMs relate system-wide emergent properties to individual behaviors [3]. This work was supported by the Multisector Dynamics program area of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research as part of the multi-program, collaborative Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project at PNNL, a multi-program national laboratory operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.

Timely and effective load shedding in power systems is critical for maintaining supply-demand balance and preventing cascading blackouts. To eliminate load shedding bias against specific regions in the system, optimization-based methods are uniquely positioned to help balance between economical and equity considerations. However, the resulting optimization problem involves complex constraints, which can be time-consuming to solve and thus cannot meet the real-time requirements of load shedding. To tackle this challenge, in this paper we present an efficient machine learning algorithm to enable millisecond-level computation for the optimization-based load shedding problem. Numerical studies on both a 3-bus toy example and a realistic RTS-GMLC system have demonstrated the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm for delivering equitable and real-time load shedding decisions.

Most state-of-the-art AI applications in atmospheric science are based on classic deep learning approaches. However, such approaches cannot automatically integrate multiple complicated procedures to construct an intelligent agent, since each functionality is enabled by a separate model learned from independent climate datasets. The emergence of foundation models, especially multimodal foundation models, with their ability to process heterogeneous input data and execute complex tasks, offers a substantial opportunity to overcome this challenge. In this report, we want to explore a central question - how the state-of-the-art foundation model, i.e., GPT-4o, performs various atmospheric scientific tasks. Toward this end, we conduct a case study by categorizing the tasks into four main classes, including climate data processing, physical diagnosis, forecast and prediction, and adaptation and mitigation. For each task, we comprehensively evaluate the GPT-4o's performance along with a concrete discussion. We hope that this report may shed new light on future AI applications and research in atmospheric science.

The photovoltaics (PV) technology landscape is evolving rapidly. To predict the potential and scalability of emerging PV technologies, a global understanding of these systems' performance is essential. Traditionally, experimental and computational studies at large national research facilities have focused on PV performance in specific regional climates. However, synthesizing these regional studies to understand the worldwide performance potential has proven difficult. Given the expense of obtaining experimental data, the challenge of coordinating experiments at national labs across a politically-divided world, and the data-privacy concerns of large commercial operators, however, a fundamentally different, data-efficient approach is desired. Here, we present a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) scheme to demonstrate that: (a) The world can be divided into a few PV-specific climate zones, called PVZones, illustrating that the relevant meteorological conditions are shared across continents; (b) by exploiting the climatic similarities, high-quality monthly energy yield data from as few as five locations can accurately predict yearly energy yield potential with high spatial resolution and a root mean square error of less than 8 kWhm$^{2}$, and (c) even with noisy, heterogeneous public PV performance data, the global energy yield can be predicted with less than 6% relative error compared to physics-based simulations provided that the dataset is representative. This PGML scheme is agnostic to PV technology and farm topology, making it adaptable to new PV technologies or farm configurations. The results encourage physics-guided, data-driven collaboration among national policymakers and research organizations to build efficient decision support systems for accelerated PV qualification and deployment across the world.

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns (e.g., periodicity), and prediction requirements (e.g., reconstruction vs. forecasting). We call this general task universal forecasting. Existing methods usually assume that input data is regularly sampled, and they forecast to pre-determined horizons, resulting in failure to generalise outside of the scope of their training. We propose the DAM - a neural model that takes randomly sampled histories and outputs an adjustable basis composition as a continuous function of time for forecasting to non-fixed horizons. It involves three key components: (1) a flexible approach for using randomly sampled histories from a long-tail distribution, that enables an efficient global perspective of the underlying temporal dynamics while retaining focus on the recent history; (2) a transformer backbone that is trained on these actively sampled histories to produce, as representational output, (3) the basis coefficients of a continuous function of time. We show that a single univariate DAM, trained on 25 time series datasets, either outperformed or closely matched existing SoTA models at multivariate long-term forecasting across 18 datasets, including 8 held-out for zero-shot transfer, even though these models were trained to specialise for each dataset-horizon combination. This single DAM excels at zero-shot transfer and very-long-term forecasting, performs well at imputation, is interpretable via basis function composition and attention, can be tuned for different inference-cost requirements, is robust to missing and irregularly sampled data {by design}.

The deep operator network (DeepONet) is a popular neural operator architecture that has shown promise in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by using deep neural networks to map between infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the absence of labeled datasets, we utilize the PDE residual loss to learn the physical system, an approach known as physics-informed DeepONet. This method faces significant computational challenges, primarily due to the curse of dimensionality, as the computational cost increases exponentially with finer discretization. In this paper, we introduce the Separable DeepONet framework to address these challenges and improve scalability for high-dimensional PDEs. Our approach involves a factorization technique where sub-networks handle individual one-dimensional coordinates, thereby reducing the number of forward passes and the size of the Jacobian matrix. By using forward-mode automatic differentiation, we further optimize the computational cost related to the Jacobian matrix. As a result, our modifications lead to a linear scaling of computational cost with discretization density, making Separable DeepONet suitable for high-dimensional PDEs. We validate the effectiveness of the separable architecture through three benchmark PDE models: the viscous Burgers equation, Biot's consolidation theory, and a parametrized heat equation. In all cases, our proposed framework achieves comparable or improved accuracy while significantly reducing computational time compared to conventional DeepONet. These results demonstrate the potential of Separable DeepONet in efficiently solving complex, high-dimensional PDEs, advancing the field of physics-informed machine learning.

Real-time lightweight time series anomaly detection has become increasingly crucial in cybersecurity and many other domains. Its ability to adapt to unforeseen pattern changes and swiftly identify anomalies enables prompt responses and critical decision-making. While several such anomaly detection approaches have been introduced in recent works years, they primarily utilize a single type of recurrent neural net (RNNs) and have been implemented in only one deep learning framework. It is unclear how the use of different types of RNNs available in various deep learning frameworks affects the performance of these anomaly detection approaches due to the absence of comprehensive evaluations. Arbitrarily choosing a RNN variant and a deep learning framework to implement an anomaly detection approach may not reflect its true performance and could potentially mislead users into favoring one approach over another. In this paper, we aim to study the influence of various types of RNNs available in popular deep learning frameworks on real-time lightweight time series anomaly detection. We reviewed several state-of-the-art approaches and implemented a representative anomaly detection approach using well-known RNN variants supported by three widely recognized deep learning frameworks. A comprehensive evaluation is then conducted to analyze the performance of each implementation across real-world, open-source time series datasets. The evaluation results provide valuable guidance for selecting the appropriate RNN variant and deep learning framework for real-time, lightweight time series anomaly detection.

Elementary Cellular Automata (ECA) are a well-studied computational universe that is, despite its simple configurations, capable of impressive computational variety. Harvesting this computation in a useful way has historically shown itself to be difficult, but if combined with reservoir computing (RC), this becomes much more feasible. Furthermore, RC and ECA enable energy-efficient AI, making the combination a promising concept for Edge AI. In this work, we contrast ECA to substrates of Partially-Local CA (PLCA) and Homogeneous Homogeneous Random Boolean Networks (HHRBN). They are, in comparison, the topological heterogeneous counterparts of ECA. This represents a step from ECA towards more biological-plausible substrates. We analyse these substrates by testing on an RC benchmark (5-bit memory), using Temporal Derrida plots to estimate the sensitivity and assess the defect collapse rate. We find that, counterintuitively, disordered topology does not necessarily mean disordered computation. There are countering computational "forces" of topology imperfections leading to a higher collapse rate (order) and yet, if accounted for, an increased sensitivity to the initial condition. These observations together suggest a shrinking critical range.

This study introduces a novel approach to Industrial Asset Management (IAM) by incorporating Conditional-Based Management (CBM) principles with the latest advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs). Our research introduces an automated model-building process, traditionally reliant on intensive collaboration between data scientists and domain experts. We present two primary innovations: a taxonomy-guided prompting generation that facilitates the automatic creation of AI solution recipes and a set of LLM pipelines designed to produce a solution recipe containing a set of artifacts composed of documents, sample data, and models for IAM. These pipelines, guided by standardized principles, enable the generation of initial solution templates for heterogeneous asset classes without direct human input, reducing reliance on extensive domain knowledge and enhancing automation. We evaluate our methodology by assessing asset health and sustainability across a spectrum of ten asset classes. Our findings illustrate the potential of LLMs and taxonomy-based LLM prompting pipelines in transforming asset management, offering a blueprint for subsequent research and development initiatives to be integrated into a rapid client solution.

In the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, time series forecasting plays a pivotal role across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and weather. However, the task of selecting the most suitable forecasting method for a given dataset is a complex task due to the diversity of data patterns and characteristics. This research aims to address this challenge by proposing a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating and ranking time series forecasting methods across a wide range of datasets. This study investigates the comparative performance of many methods from two prominent time series forecasting frameworks, AutoGluon-Timeseries, and sktime to shed light on their applicability in different real-world scenarios. This research contributes to the field of time series forecasting by providing a robust benchmarking methodology, and facilitating informed decision-making when choosing forecasting methods for achieving optimal prediction.