Owing to its minimal pollution and efficient energy use, wind energy has become one of the most widely exploited renewable energy resources. The successful integration of wind power into the grid system is contingent upon accurate wind speed forecasting models. However, the task of wind speed forecasting is challenging due to the inherent intermittent characteristics of wind speed. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning approach is developed for predicting short-term wind speed. First, the wind data was decomposed into modal components using Successive Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD). Then, each sub-signal was fitted into a Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) model, with its hyperparameter optimized by a novel variant of Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO), QPSO with elitist breeding (EBQPSO). Second, the residuals making up for the differences between the original wind series and the aggregate of the SVMD modes were modeled using long short-term model (LSTM). Then, the overall predicted values were computed using the aggregate of the LSSVM and the LSTM models. Finally, the performance of the proposed model was compared against state-of-the-art benchmark models for forecasting wind speed using two separate data sets collected from a local wind farm. Empirical results show significant improvement in performance by the proposed method, achieving a 1.21% to 32.76% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and a 2.05% to 40.75% reduction in mean average error (MAE) compared to the benchmark methods. The entire code implementation of this work is freely available in Github.

The proliferation of e-commerce and urbanization has significantly intensified delivery operations in urban areas, boosting the volume and complexity of delivery demand. Data-driven predictive methods, especially those utilizing machine learning techniques, have emerged to handle these complexities in urban delivery demand management problems. One particularly pressing problem that has not yet been sufficiently studied is the joint estimation and prediction of city-wide delivery demand. To this end, we formulate this problem as a graph-based spatiotemporal learning task. First, a message-passing neural network model is formalized to capture the interaction between demand patterns of associated regions. Second, by exploiting recent advances in large language models, we extract general geospatial knowledge encodings from the unstructured locational data and integrate them into the demand predictor. Last, to encourage the cross-city transferability of the model, an inductive training scheme is developed in an end-to-end routine. Extensive empirical results on two real-world delivery datasets, including eight cities in China and the US, demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in these challenging tasks.

The increasing availability of human demonstrations has spurred renewed interest in behavioral cloning [1, 2]. In particular, recent studies have highlighted the potential of learning from large-scale demonstrations to acquire a variety of complex skills [3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. However, this approach still struggles with two common properties of human demonstrations: (i) strong temporal dependencies across multiple steps, such as idle pauses [4] and latent strategies [9, 10], (ii) large style variability across different demonstrations, including differences in proficiency [11] and preference [12]. Oftentimes, both properties are prevalent yet unlabeled in collected data, posing significant challenges to traditional behavioral cloning, which typically learns a discriminative model to map an input state to a target action. In response to these challenges, recent works have pursued a generative approach characterized by two key elements: (i) predicting a sequence of actions over multiple time steps and executing all or part of the sequence, known as action chunking [3] or receding horizon [4]; (ii) modeling the distribution of action chunks and sampling from the learned model in an independent [4, 13] or weakly dependent [3, 14] manner during deployment. Some studies find these elements crucial for learning a performant policy in controlled laboratory scenarios [3, 4], while other recent work reports opposite outcomes under practical conditions [6]. The reasons behind these conflicting results remain unclear.

Abstract--Constraint-aware estimation of human intent is essential for robots to physically collaborate and interact with humans. Further, to achieve fluid collaboration in dynamic tasks intent estimation should be achieved in real-time. In this paper, we present a framework that combines online estimation and control to facilitate robots in interpreting human intentions, and dynamically adjust their actions to assist in dynamic object comanipulation tasks while considering both robot and human constraints. Central to our approach is the adoption of a Dynamic Systems (DS) model to represent human intent. Such a lowdimensional parameterized model, along with human manipulability and robot kinematic constraints, enables us to predict intent using a particle filter solely based on past motion data and tracking errors. For safe assistive control, we propose a variable impedance controller that adapts the robot's impedance to offer Figure 1: Our method uses particle filters to predict full 6 DoF intent and assistance based on the intent estimation confidence from the DS a variable impedance control scheme to assist the human, while being particle filter. This is achieved without human-robot co-manipulation task and present promising any external force-torque (F/T) sensing. Inspired by this human ability, in this in factories and warehouses, performing tasks that require work, we seek to endow robots with the capability to estimate high speeds and forces and can be dull, dirty or dangerous the human's intent solely from physical guidance while taking for humans, such as object transportation, inspection, palletization, into consideration kinematic and feasibility constraints of both etc.

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In the first stage of a two-stage problem, here-and-now decisions must be made in the face of this uncertainty, while in the second stage, wait-and-see decisions are made after the uncertainty has been resolved. Many methods in stochastic programming assume that the objective is cheap to evaluate and linear or convex. In this work, we apply Bayesian optimization to solve non-convex, two-stage stochastic programs which are expensive to evaluate. We formulate a knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function to jointly optimize the first- and second-stage variables, establish a guarantee of asymptotic consistency and provide a computationally efficient approximation. We demonstrate comparable empirical results to an alternative we formulate which alternates its focus between the two variable types, and superior empirical results over the standard, naive, two-step benchmark. We show that differences in the dimension and length scales between the variable types can lead to inefficiencies of the two-step algorithm, while the joint and alternating acquisition functions perform well in all problems tested. Experiments are conducted on both synthetic and real-world examples.

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is essential for several reasons, especially as the integration of renewable energy sources and the transition to a decentralized network paradigm introduce greater complexity and uncertainty. The proposed methodology leverages graph-based representations to effectively capture the spatial distribution and relational intricacies inherent in this decentralized network structure. This research work offers a novel approach that extends beyond the conventional Generalized Additive Model framework by considering models like Graph Convolutional Networks or Graph SAGE. These graph-based models enable the incorporation of various levels of interconnectedness and information sharing among nodes, where each node corresponds to the combined load (i.e. consumption) of a subset of consumers (e.g. the regions of a country). More specifically, we introduce a range of methods for inferring graphs tailored to consumption forecasting, along with a framework for evaluating the developed models in terms of both performance and explainability. We conduct experiments on electricity forecasting, in both a synthetic and a real framework considering the French mainland regions, and the performance and merits of our approach are discussed.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is a frequently employed technique to solve scheduling problems. Although DRL agents ace at delivering viable results in short computing times, their reasoning remains opaque. We conduct a case study where we systematically apply two explainable AI (xAI) frameworks, namely SHAP (DeepSHAP) and Captum (Input x Gradient), to describe the reasoning behind scheduling decisions of a specialized DRL agent in a flow production. We find that methods in the xAI literature lack falsifiability and consistent terminology, do not adequately consider domain-knowledge, the target audience or real-world scenarios, and typically provide simple input-output explanations rather than causal interpretations. To resolve this issue, we introduce a hypotheses-based workflow. This approach enables us to inspect whether explanations align with domain knowledge and match the reward hypotheses of the agent. We furthermore tackle the challenge of communicating these insights to third parties by tailoring hypotheses to the target audience, which can serve as interpretations of the agent's behavior after verification. Our proposed workflow emphasizes the repeated verification of explanations and may be applicable to various DRL-based scheduling use cases.

This article proposes a novel fuzzy clustering based anomaly detection method for pump current time series of EDFA systems. The proposed change detection framework (CDF) strategically combines the advantages of entropy analysis (EA) and principle component analysis (PCA) with fuzzy clustering procedures. In the framework, EA is applied for dynamic selection of features for reduction of the feature space and increase of computational performance. Furthermore, PCA is utilized to extract features from the raw feature space to enable generalization capability of the subsequent fuzzy clustering procedures. Three different fuzzy clustering methods, more precisely the fuzzy clustering algorithm, a probabilistic clustering algorithm and a possibilistic clustering algorithm are evaluated for performance and generalization. Hence, the proposed framework has the innovative feature to detect changes in pump current time series at an early stage for arbitrary points of operation, compared to state-of-the-art predefined alarms in commercially used EDFAs. Moreover, the approach is implemented and tested using experimental data. In addition, the proposed framework enables further approaches of applying decentralized predictive maintenance for optical fiber networks.

Smart video doorbells are an easy and effective way to improve your home security and ensure you never miss a package again. However, chunky outdated designs, short battery life and expensive subscriptions can often sour the deal. Thankfully, there are plenty of other ways to inject some intelligence into your front door, no matter whether you live in an apartment, house or villa. EZVIZ has a range of innovative and versatile solutions to suit almost any home. In this article, we'll detail three of our favourite EZVIZ smart entry products, all with their own unique benefits, allowing for convenient and secure entry to a variety of living spaces.

In this work, we consider the problem of training a generator from evaluations of energy functions or unnormalized densities. This is a fundamental problem in probabilistic inference, which is crucial for scientific applications such as learning the 3D coordinate distribution of a molecule. To solve this problem, we propose iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM), the first off-policy approach to train continuous normalizing flow (CNF) models from unnormalized densities. We introduce the simulation-free energy-based flow matching objective, which trains the model to predict the Monte Carlo estimation of the marginal vector field constructed from known energy functions. Our framework is general and can be extended to variance-exploding (VE) and optimal transport (OT) conditional probability paths. We evaluate iEFM on a two-dimensional Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and an eight-dimensional four-particle double-well potential (DW-4) energy function. Our results demonstrate that iEFM outperforms existing methods, showcasing its potential for efficient and scalable probabilistic modeling in complex high-dimensional systems.