"We really can't do this research without collaboration." Wąsala collaborates with atmospheric scientists from SRON (Space Research Organisation Netherlands) on machine learning models that detect large greenhouse gas emissions from space. There is too much data to review manually, and such models offer a solution. How much greenhouse gas do humans emit? The machine learning method Wąsala refers to detects emissions in the form of a point source: plumes.

Improving energy efficiency in residential buildings is critical to combating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Retrofitting existing buildings, which contribute a significant share of energy use, is therefore a key priority, especially in regions with outdated building stock. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) can automate retrofit decision-making and find retrofit strategies. However, their use faces challenges of data availability, model transparency, and compliance with national and EU AI regulations including the AI act, ethics guidelines and the ALTAI. This paper presents a trustworthy-by-design ML-based decision support framework that recommends energy efficiency strategies for residential buildings using minimal user-accessible inputs. The framework merges Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) to augment limited and imbalanced data with a neural network-based multi-label classifier that predicts potential combinations of retrofit actions. To support explanation and trustworthiness, an Explainable AI (XAI) layer using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) clarifies the rationale behind recommendations and guides feature engineering. Two case studies validate performance and generalization: the first leveraging a well-established, large EPC dataset for England and Wales; the second using a small, imbalanced post-retrofit dataset from Latvia (RETROFIT-LAT). Results show that the framework can handle diverse data conditions and improve performance up to 53% compared to the baseline. Overall, the proposed framework provides a feasible, interpretable, and trustworthy AI system for building retrofit decision support through assured performance, usability, and transparency to aid stakeholders in prioritizing effective energy investments and support regulation-compliant, data-driven innovation in sustainable energy transition.

Addressing climate change effectively requires more than cataloguing the number of policies in place; it calls for tools that can reveal their thematic priorities and their tangible impacts on development outcomes. Existing assessments often rely on qualitative descriptions or composite indices, which can mask crucial differences between key domains such as mitigation, adaptation, disaster risk management, and loss and damage. To bridge this gap, we develop a quantitative indicator of climate policy orientation by applying a multilingual transformer-based language model to official national policy documents, achieving a classification accuracy of 0.90 (F1-score). Linking these indicators with World Bank development data in panel regressions reveals that mitigation policies are associated with higher GDP and GNI; disaster risk management correlates with greater GNI and debt but reduced foreign direct investment; adaptation and loss and damage show limited measurable effects. This integrated NLP-econometric framework enables comparable, theme-specific analysis of climate governance, offering a scalable method to monitor progress, evaluate trade-offs, and align policy emphasis with development goals.

Climate change demands effective legislative action to mitigate its impacts. This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) to understand the progression of climate policy from announcement to adoption, focusing on policies within the European Green Deal. We present a dataset of 165 policies, incorporating text and metadata. We aim to predict a policy's progression status, and compare text representation methods, including TF-IDF, BERT, and ClimateBERT. Metadata features are included to evaluate the impact on predictive performance. On text features alone, ClimateBERT outperforms other approaches (RMSE = 0.17, R^2 = 0.29), while BERT achieves superior performance with the addition of metadata features (RMSE = 0.16, R^2 = 0.38). Using methods from explainable AI highlights the influence of factors such as policy wording and metadata including political party and country representation. These findings underscore the potential of ML tools in supporting climate policy analysis and decision-making.

Climate policy studies require models that capture the combined effects of multiple greenhouse gases on global temperature, but these models are computationally expensive and difficult to embed in reinforcement learning. We present a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework that integrates a high-fidelity, highly efficient climate surrogate directly in the environment loop, enabling regional agents to learn climate policies under multi-gas dynamics. As a proof of concept, we introduce a recurrent neural network architecture pretrained on ($20{,}000$) multi-gas emission pathways to surrogate the climate model CICERO-SCM. The surrogate model attains near-simulator accuracy with global-mean temperature RMSE $\approx 0.0004 \mathrm{K}$ and approximately $1000\times$ faster one-step inference. When substituted for the original simulator in a climate-policy MARL setting, it accelerates end-to-end training by $>\!100\times$. We show that the surrogate and simulator converge to the same optimal policies and propose a methodology to assess this property in cases where using the simulator is intractable. Our work allows to bypass the core computational bottleneck without sacrificing policy fidelity, enabling large-scale multi-agent experiments across alternative climate-policy regimes with multi-gas dynamics and high-fidelity climate response.

Monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating national inventories require efficient, scalable, and reliable inference methods. Top-down approaches, combined with recent advances in satellite observations, provide new opportunities to evaluate emissions at continental and global scales. However, transport models used in these methods remain a key source of uncertainty: they are computationally expensive to run at scale, and their uncertainty is difficult to characterise. Artificial intelligence offers a dual opportunity to accelerate transport simulations and to quantify their associated uncertainty. We present an ensemble-based pipeline for estimating atmospheric transport "footprints", greenhouse gas mole fraction measurements, and their uncertainties using a graph neural network emulator of a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM). The approach is demonstrated with GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite) observations for Brazil in 2016. The emulator achieved a ~1000x speed-up over the NAME LPDM, while reproducing large-scale footprint structures. Ensembles were calculated to quantify absolute and relative uncertainty, revealing spatial correlations with prediction error. The results show that ensemble spread highlights low-confidence spatial and temporal predictions for both atmospheric transport footprints and methane mole fractions. While demonstrated here for an LPDM emulator, the approach could be applied more generally to atmospheric transport models, supporting uncertainty-aware greenhouse gas inversion systems and improving the robustness of satellite-based emissions monitoring. With further development, ensemble-based emulators could also help explore systematic LPDM errors, offering a computationally efficient pathway towards a more comprehensive uncertainty budget in greenhouse gas flux estimates.

As organizations face increasing pressure to understand their corporate and products' carbon footprints, artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted calculation systems for footprinting are proliferating, but with widely varying levels of rigor and transparency. Standards and guidance have not kept pace with the technology; evaluation datasets are nascent; and statistical approaches to uncertainty analysis are not yet practical to apply to scaled systems. We present a set of criteria to validate AI-assisted systems that calculate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for products and materials. We implement a three-step approach: (1) Identification of needs and constraints, (2) Draft criteria development and (3) Refinements through pilots. The process identifies three use cases of AI applications: Case 1 focuses on AI-assisted mapping to existing datasets for corporate GHG accounting and product hotspotting, automating repetitive manual tasks while maintaining mapping quality. Case 2 addresses AI systems that generate complete product models for corporate decision-making, which require comprehensive validation of both component tasks and end-to-end performance. We discuss the outlook for Case 3 applications, systems that generate standards-compliant models. We find that credible AI systems can be built and that they should be validated using system-level evaluations rather than line-item review, with metrics such as benchmark performance, indications of data quality and uncertainty, and transparent documentation. This approach may be used as a foundation for practitioners, auditors, and standards bodies to evaluate AI-assisted environmental assessment tools. By establishing evaluation criteria that balance scalability with credibility requirements, our approach contributes to the field's efforts to develop appropriate standards for AI-assisted carbon footprinting systems.

As societal awareness of climate change grows, corporate climate policy engagements are attracting attention.

He seems to have a recipe for achieving that goal, and the first ingredient is human talent: Zuckerberg has reportedly tried to lure top researchers to Meta Superintelligence Labs with nine-figure offers. The second ingredient is AI itself. Zuckerberg recently said on an earnings call that Meta will focus on building self-improving AI--systems that can bootstrap themselves to higher and higher levels of performance. He hopes to tap into a very real trend. Here are five ways that AI is already making itself better.