Energy disaggregation, the task of taking a whole home electricity signal and decomposing it into its component appliances, has been proved to be essential in energy conservation research. One powerful cue for breaking down the entire household's energy consumption is user's daily energy usage behavior, which has so far received little attention: existing works on energy disaggregation mostly ignored the relationship between the energy usages of various appliances across different time slots. To model such relationship, we combine topic models with Hawkes processes, and propose a novel probabilistic model based on marked Hawkes process that enables the modeling of marked event data. The proposed model seeks to capture the influence from the occurrence and the marks of one usage event to the occurrence and the marks of subsequent usage events in the future. We also develop an inference algorithm based on variational inference for model parameter estimation. Experimental results on both synthetic data and three real world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, which outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in decomposing the entire consumed energy to each appliance. Analyzing the influence captured by the proposed model provides further insights into numerous interesting energy usage behavior patterns.
Ermon, Stefano (Stanford University) | Xue, Yexiang (Cornell University) | Toth, Russell (University of Sydney) | Dilkina, Bistra (Georgia Institute of Technology) | Bernstein, Richard (Cornell University) | Damoulas, Theodoros (NYU CUSP) | Clark, Patrick (USDA Research Service) | DeGloria, Steve (Cornell University) | Mude, Andrew (International Livestock Research Institute) | Barrett, Christopher (Cornell University) | Gomes, Carla P. (Cornell University)
Understanding spatio-temporal resource preferences is paramount in the design of policies for sustainable development. Unfortunately, resource preferences are often unknown to policy-makers and have to be inferred from data. In this paper we consider the problem of inferring agents' preferences from observed movement trajectories, and formulate it as an Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) problem . With the goal of informing policy-making, we take a probabilistic approach and consider generative models that can be used to simulate behavior under new circumstances such as changes in resource availability, access policies, or climate. We study the Dynamic Discrete Choice (DDC) models from econometrics and prove that they generalize the Max-Entropy IRL model, a widely used probabilistic approach from the machine learning literature. Furthermore, we develop SPL-GD, a new learning algorithm for DDC models that is considerably faster than the state of the art and scales to very large datasets. We consider an application in the context of pastoralism in the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa, where migratory pastoralists face regular risks due to resource availability, droughts, and resource degradation from climate change and development. We show how our approach based on satellite and survey data can accurately model migratory pastoralism in East Africa and that it considerably outperforms other approaches on a large-scale real-world dataset of pastoralists' movements in Ethiopia collected over 3 years.