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Optimal Posterior Sampling for Policy Identification in Tabular Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the $(\varepsilon, ฮด)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high computational cost, rendering them hard to implement, and also suffer from suboptimal dependence on $\log(1/ฮด)$. We propose a randomized and computationally efficient algorithm for best policy identification that combines posterior sampling with an online learning algorithm to guide exploration in the MDP. Our method achieves asymptotic optimality in sample complexity, also in terms of posterior contraction rate, and runs in $O(S^2AH)$ per episode, matching standard model-based approaches. Unlike prior algorithms such as MOCA and PEDEL, our guarantees remain meaningful in the asymptotic regime and avoid sub-optimal polynomial dependence on $\log(1/ฮด)$. Our results provide both theoretical insights and practical tools for efficient policy identification in tabular MDPs.


A historic 200-million USC gift from Nvidia board member aims to transform AI education

Los Angeles Times

Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. The gift will rename USC's School of Advanced Computing as the USC Mark and Mary Stevens School of Computing and Artificial Intelligence. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here . USC receives a $200-million gift from venture capitalist Mark Stevens to establish artificial intelligence research and expertise across campus.


Will A.I. Make College Obsolete?

The New Yorker

Will A.I. Make College Obsolete? More and more people may decide that its stamp of approval isn't worth the cost. A few weeks ago, while I was dealing with taxes, it occurred to me that the money my wife and I were putting away in a college fund for our children might be better used somewhere else. This wasn't a novel musing, but it felt particularly pressing as I watched my account balance go down, a portion of its resources funnelled into something that can't be touched for at least the next nine years. When my nine-year-old daughter graduates from high school, in 2035, I asked myself, will the landscape of higher education look the way that it does now?


He Couldn't Land a Job Interview. Was AI to Blame?

WIRED

Armed with some Python and a white-hot sense of injustice, one medical student spent six months trying to figure out whether an algorithm trashed his job application. It was mid-October, peak leaf-peeping season in Hanover, New Hampshire, and Chad Markey was on a rare break between clinical rotations during his last year of medical school. He should have been inhaling Green Mountain air and gossiping with his Dartmouth classmates about life after graduation. In a few months, they'd all be going their separate ways to start residency training at hospitals around the country. Instead, Markey was alone in his apartment, deep down a rabbit hole, preparing to go to war. He'd wake each morning, eat breakfast, open his laptop at the kitchen table or settle into the tan armchair with the good back support, and start coding . Some days, he wouldn't notice the sun had gone down until one of his roommates came home and asked why the lights weren't on. For days, Markey had been scrolling through a Discord group about medical residency, a font of crowdsourced knowledge where students report back to their peers on every stage of the application and selection process. He'd watched as other students, lots of them, posted about the interview invitations they'd received.


The Partial Testimony of Logs: Evaluation of Language Model Generation under Confounded Model Choice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline evaluation of language models from usage logs is biased when model choice is confounded: the same user-side factors that influence which model is used can also influence how its output is judged, so raw comparisons of logged scores mix self-selected populations rather than estimating a common quantity of interest. A small randomized experiment can break this bias by overriding model choice, but in practice such experiments are scarce and costly. We study a three-source design that combines a large confounded observational log (OBS) for scale, a small randomized experiment (EXP) for unconfounded scoring, and an offline simulator (SIM) that replays candidate models on cached contexts. Our main result is an identification theorem showing that the randomized experiment and the simulator are together enough to recover causal model values; the observational log enters only afterward, to reduce estimation error rather than to make the causal comparison valid. Six estimator families are evaluated in a controlled semi-synthetic validation and in two real-task cached benchmarks for summarization and coding. No family dominates every regime; relative performance depends on the amount of unbiased EXP supervision and on how closely the target reward aligns with OBS-derived structure.


The Bayesian Reflex: Online Learning as the Autonomic Nervous System of Modern and Future AI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This chapter introduces the Bayesian reflex -- an analogy with the autonomic nervous system -- as a unifying framework for online learning in AI. Bayesian online algorithms automatically maintain equilibrium in dynamic environments via three mechanisms: belief maintenance through probabilistic representations, sequential updating via Bayes' theorem, and uncertainty-driven action balancing exploration and exploitation. We survey online Bayesian methods, highlighting two computational principles: the look-up table principle for sequential inference in function space, and the ellipsoidal decomposition framework for nearly exact i.i.d. sampling from arbitrary posteriors. These principles are generalized across dynamic emulation, nonparametric state-space models, circular time series, inverse regression for climate model evaluation, and deep architectures via Recursive Gaussian Processes. Decision-making is explored via Thompson sampling and restless bandits. We extend the framework to assess infinite series convergence (applied to climate dynamics and the Riemann Hypothesis), model prime number distributions leading to the discovery of 184 strong Mersenne prime candidates, detect stationarity, and characterize point processes. The Bayesian reflex provides a foundational infrastructure for adaptive AI that continuously learns in a complex world.


This Indigenous Language Survived Russian Occupation. Can It Survive YouTube?

WIRED

This Indigenous Language Survived Russian Occupation. YouTube's search and recommendation algorithms are driving children to Russian-language content even when they seek out videos in Kyrgyz, creating a cultural shift that concerns some parents. When anthropology researcher Ashley McDermott was doing fieldwork in Kyrgyzstan a few years ago, she says many people voiced the same concern: Children were losing touch with their indigenous language. The Central Asian country of 7 million people was under Russian control for a century until 1991, but Kyrgyz (pronounced kur-giz) survived and remains widely spoken among adults. McDermott, a doctoral student at the University of Michigan, says she also heard that some kids in rural villages where Kyrgyz dominated had spontaneously learned to speak Russian.




Threshold Learning for Optimal Decision Making

Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision making under uncertainty is commonly modelled as a process of competitive stochastic evidence accumulation to threshold (the drift-diffusion model). However, it is unknown how animals learn these decision thresholds. We examine threshold learning by constructing a reward function that averages over many trials to Wald's cost function that defines decision optimality. These rewards are highly stochastic and hence challenging to optimize, which we address in two ways: first, a simple two-factor reward-modulated learning rule derived from Williams' REINFORCE method for neural networks; and second, Bayesian optimization of the reward function with a Gaussian process. Bayesian optimization converges in fewer trials than REINFORCE but is slower computationally with greater variance. The REINFORCE method is also a better model of acquisition behaviour in animals and a similar learning rule has been proposed for modelling basal ganglia function.