The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on out-of-sample data. Using probit regression as an illustrative working example, this paper presents a general and effective methodology based on the pseudo-marginal approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo that efficiently addresses both of these issues. The results presented in this paper show improvements over existing sampling methods to simulate from the posterior distribution over the parameters defining the covariance function of the Gaussian Process prior. This is particularly important as it offers a powerful tool to carry out full Bayesian inference of Gaussian Process based hierarchic statistical models in general. The results also demonstrate that Monte Carlo based integration of all model parameters is actually feasible in this class of models providing a superior quantification of uncertainty in predictions. Extensive comparisons with respect to state-of-the-art probabilistic classifiers confirm this assertion.

Useful feedback makes use of models of domain-specific knowledge, especially models that are commonly held by potential students. To empirically determine what these models are, student data can be clustered to reveal common misconceptions or common problem-solving strategies. We use this approach to cluster a corpus of hand-drawn student sketches to discover common answers.

We describe a constraint-based timetabling system that was developed for the dental school based at Cork University Hospital in Ireland. This sy stem has been deployed since 2010. Dental school timetabling differs from other university course scheduling in that certain clinic sessions can be used by multiple courses at the same time, provided a limit on room capacity is satisfied. Starting from a constraint programming solution using a web interface, we have moved to a mixed integer programming-based solver to deal with multiple objective functions, along with a dedicated Java application, which provides a rich user interface. Solutions for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 have been used in the dental school, replacing a manual timetabling process, which could no longer cope with increasing student numbers and resulting resource bottlenecks. The use of the automated system allowed the dental school to increase the number of students enrolled to the maximum possible given the available resources. It also provides the school with a valuable “what-if” analysis tool.

The in AI program will be held in 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Conference Fete will be held at the conjunction with AAAI-14. The main Science Society, July 23-26, 2014; beautiful Le Theatre and Cabaret du goal of this program is to increase participation the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Capitole de Québec and will be open to of women and members of Intelligence, July 23-27, 2014; all attendees! Other special events are underrepresented groups in Artificial the Computational Neuroscience planned, including an update to the Intelligence by providing community Meeting, July 26-31, 2014; and Artificial 2013 Puzzle Hunt, so stay tuned for building and networking sessions as General Intelligence 2014, August more!

One of the major challenges to building intelligent educational software is determining what kinds of feedback to give learners. Useful feedback makes use of models of domain-specific knowledge, especially models that are commonly held by potential students. To empirically determine what these models are, student data can be clustered to reveal common misconceptions or common problem-solving strategies. This article describes how analogical retrieval and generalization can be used to cluster automatically analyzed hand-drawn sketches incorporating both spatial and conceptual information. We use this approach to cluster a corpus of hand-drawn student sketches to discover common answers. Common answer clusters can be used for the design of targeted feedback and for assessment.

This article describes GRADE, a statistical machine learning system developed to support the work of the graduate admissions committee at the University of Texas at Austin Department of Computer Science (UTCS). In recent years, the number of applications to the UTCS PhD program has become too large to manage with a traditional review process. GRADE uses historical admissions data to predict how likely the committee is to admit each new applicant. It reports each prediction as a score similar to those used by human reviewers, and accompanies each by an explanation of what applicant features most influenced its prediction. GRADE makes the review process more efficient by enabling reviewers to spend most of their time on applicants near the decision boundary and by focusing their attention on parts of each applicant’s file that matter the most. An evaluation over two seasons of PhD admissions indicates that the system leads to dramatic time savings, reducing the total time spent on reviews by at least 74 percent.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a mainstay of modern data analysis - a black box that is widely used but (sometimes) poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to dispel the magic behind this black box. This manuscript focuses on building a solid intuition for how and why principal component analysis works. This manuscript crystallizes this knowledge by deriving from simple intuitions, the mathematics behind PCA. This tutorial does not shy away from explaining the ideas informally, nor does it shy away from the mathematics. The hope is that by addressing both aspects, readers of all levels will be able to gain a better understanding of PCA as well as the when, the how and the why of applying this technique.

We describe Venture, an interactive virtual machine for probabilistic programming that aims to be sufficiently expressive, extensible, and efficient for general-purpose use. Like Church, probabilistic models and inference problems in Venture are specified via a Turing-complete, higher-order probabilistic language descended from Lisp. Unlike Church, Venture also provides a compositional language for custom inference strategies built out of scalable exact and approximate techniques. We also describe four key aspects of Venture's implementation that build on ideas from probabilistic graphical models. First, we describe the stochastic procedure interface (SPI) that specifies and encapsulates primitive random variables. The SPI supports custom control flow, higher-order probabilistic procedures, partially exchangeable sequences and ``likelihood-free'' stochastic simulators. It also supports external models that do inference over latent variables hidden from Venture. Second, we describe probabilistic execution traces (PETs), which represent execution histories of Venture programs. PETs capture conditional dependencies, existential dependencies and exchangeable coupling. Third, we describe partitions of execution histories called scaffolds that factor global inference problems into coherent sub-problems. Finally, we describe a family of stochastic regeneration algorithms for efficiently modifying PET fragments contained within scaffolds. Stochastic regeneration linear runtime scaling in cases where many previous approaches scaled quadratically. We show how to use stochastic regeneration and the SPI to implement general-purpose inference strategies such as Metropolis-Hastings, Gibbs sampling, and blocked proposals based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo and mean-field variational inference techniques.

Incorporating sparsity priors in learning tasks can give rise to simple, and interpretable models for complex high dimensional data. Sparse models have found widespread use in structure discovery, recovering data from corruptions, and a variety of large scale unsupervised and supervised learning problems. Assuming the availability of sufficient data, these methods infer dictionaries for sparse representations by optimizing for high-fidelity reconstruction. In most scenarios, the reconstruction quality is measured using the squared Euclidean distance, and efficient algorithms have been developed for both batch and online learning cases. However, new application domains motivate looking beyond conventional loss functions. For example, robust loss functions such as $\ell_1$ and Huber are useful in learning outlier-resilient models, and the quantile loss is beneficial in discovering structures that are the representative of a particular quantile. These new applications motivate our work in generalizing sparse learning to a broad class of convex loss functions. In particular, we consider the class of piecewise linear quadratic (PLQ) cost functions that includes Huber, as well as $\ell_1$, quantile, Vapnik, hinge loss, and smoothed variants of these penalties. We propose an algorithm to learn dictionaries and obtain sparse codes when the data reconstruction fidelity is measured using any smooth PLQ cost function. We provide convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithm, and demonstrate the convergence behavior using empirical experiments. Furthermore, we present three case studies that require the use of PLQ cost functions: (i) robust image modeling, (ii) tag refinement for image annotation and retrieval and (iii) computing empirical confidence limits for subspace clustering.

There has been growing recent interest in probabilistic interpretations of kernel-based methods as well as learning in Banach spaces. The absence of a useful Lebesgue measure on an infinite-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space is a serious obstacle for such stochastic models. We propose an estimation model for the ridge regression problem within the framework of abstract Wiener spaces and show how the support vector machine solution to such problems can be interpreted in terms of the Gaussian Radon transform.