The framework of online learning with memory naturally captures learning problems with temporal effects, and was previously studied for the experts setting. In this work we extend the notion of learning with memory to the general Online Convex Optimization (OCO) framework, and present two algorithms that attain low regret. The first algorithm applies to Lipschitz continuous loss functions, obtaining optimal regret bounds for both convex and strongly convex losses. The second algorithm attains the optimal regret bounds and applies more broadly to convex losses without requiring Lipschitz continuity, yet is more complicated to implement. We complement the theoretic results with two applications: statistical arbitrage in finance, and multi-step ahead prediction in statistics.

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width~2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound $k$, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter $k$. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice.

Knowledge tracing, where a machine models the knowledge of a student as they interact with coursework, is an established and significantly unsolved problem in computer supported education.In this paper we explore the benefit of using recurrent neural networks to model student learning.This family of models have important advantages over current state of the art methods in that they do not require the explicit encoding of human domain knowledge,and have a far more flexible functional form which can capture substantially more complex student interactions.We show that these neural networks outperform the current state of the art in prediction on real student data,while allowing straightforward interpretation and discovery of structure in the curriculum.These results suggest a promising new line of research for knowledge tracing.

The greedy algorithm is extensively studied in the field of combinatorial optimization for decades. In this paper, we address the online learning problem when the input to the greedy algorithm is stochastic with unknown parameters that have to be learned over time. We first propose the greedy regret and $\epsilon$-quasi greedy regret as learning metrics comparing with the performance of offline greedy algorithm. We then propose two online greedy learning algorithms with semi-bandit feedbacks, which use multi-armed bandit and pure exploration bandit policies at each level of greedy learning, one for each of the regret metrics respectively. Both algorithms achieve $O(\log T)$ problem-dependent regret bound ($T$ being the time horizon) for a general class of combinatorial structures and reward functions that allow greedy solutions. We further show that the bound is tight in $T$ and other problem instance parameters.

We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on a set of neighbourhood relationships. The model allows straightforward variational optimisation of the posterior distribution on coordinates and locally linear maps from the latent space to the observation space given the data. Thus, the LL-LVM encapsulates the local-geometry preserving intuitions that underlie non-probabilistic methods such as locally linear embedding (LLE). Its probabilistic semantics make it easy to evaluate the quality of hypothesised neighbourhood relationships, select the intrinsic dimensionality of the manifold, construct out-of-sample extensions and to combine the manifold model with additional probabilistic models that capture the structure of coordinates within the manifold.

Space-time is a profound concept in physics. This concept was shown to be useful for dimensionality reduction. We present basic definitions with interesting counter-intuitions.We give theoretical propositions to show that space-time is a more powerful representation than Euclidean space. We apply this concept to manifold learning for preserving local information. Empirical results on nonmetric datasetsshow that more information can be preserved in space-time.

One long-term goal of machine learning research is to produce methods that are applicable to reasoning and natural language, in particular building an intelligent dialogue agent. To measure progress towards that goal, we argue for the usefulness of a set of proxy tasks that evaluate reading comprehension via question answering. Our tasks measure understanding in several ways: whether a system is able to answer questions via chaining facts, simple induction, deduction and many more. The tasks are designed to be prerequisites for any system that aims to be capable of conversing with a human. We believe many existing learning systems can currently not solve them, and hence our aim is to classify these tasks into skill sets, so that researchers can identify (and then rectify) the failings of their systems. We also extend and improve the recently introduced Memory Networks model, and show it is able to solve some, but not all, of the tasks.

Active learning (AL) is a learning paradigm where an active learner has to train a model (e.g., a classifier) which is in principal trained in a supervised way, but in AL it has to be done by means of a data set with initially unlabeled samples. To get labels for these samples, the active learner has to ask an oracle (e.g., a human expert) for labels. The goal is to maximize the performance of the model and to minimize the number of queries at the same time. In this article, we first briefly discuss the state of the art and own, preliminary work in the field of AL. Then, we propose the concept of collaborative active learning (CAL). With CAL, we will overcome some of the harsh limitations of current AL. In particular, we envision scenarios where an expert may be wrong for various reasons, there might be several or even many experts with different expertise, the experts may label not only samples but also knowledge at a higher level such as rules, and we consider that the labeling costs depend on many conditions. Moreover, in a CAL process human experts will profit by improving their own knowledge, too.

Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on information-theoretic ideas. We provide a conceptual justification for using the free energy functional as the objective function for characterizing bounded-rational decisions. This functional possesses three crucial properties: it controls the size of the solution space; it has Monte Carlo planners that are exact, yet bypass the need for exhaustive search; and it captures model uncertainty arising from lack of evidence or from interacting with other agents having unknown intentions. We discuss the single-step decision-making case, and show how to extend it to sequential decisions using equivalence transformations. This extension yields a very general class of decision problems that encompass classical decision rules (e.g.

A long-lived autonomous agent should be able to respond online to novel instances of tasks from a familiar domain. Acting online requires 'fast' responses, in terms of rapid convergence, especially when the task instance has a short duration, such as in applications involving interactions with humans. These requirements can be problematic for many established methods for learning to act. In domains where the agent knows that the task instance is drawn from a family of related tasks, albeit without access to the label of any given instance, it can choose to act through a process of policy reuse from a library, rather than policy learning from scratch. In policy reuse, the agent has prior knowledge of the class of tasks in the form of a library of policies that were learnt from sample task instances during an offline training phase. We formalise the problem of policy reuse, and present an algorithm for efficiently responding to a novel task instance by reusing a policy from the library of existing policies, where the choice is based on observed 'signals' which correlate to policy performance. We achieve this by posing the problem as a Bayesian choice problem with a corresponding notion of an optimal response, but the computation of that response is in many cases intractable. Therefore, to reduce the computation cost of the posterior, we follow a Bayesian optimisation approach and define a set of policy selection functions, which balance exploration in the policy library against exploitation of previously tried policies, together with a model of expected performance of the policy library on their corresponding task instances. We validate our method in several simulated domains of interactive, short-duration episodic tasks, showing rapid convergence in unknown task variations.