We develop a nonparametric and online learning algorithm that estimates the triggering functions of a multivariate Hawkes process (MHP). The approach we take approximates the triggering function $f_{i,j}(t)$ by functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and maximizes a time-discretized version of the log-likelihood, with Tikhonov regularization. Theoretically, our algorithm achieves an $\calO(\log T)$ regret bound. Numerical results show that our algorithm offers a competing performance to that of the nonparametric batch learning algorithm, with a run time comparable to the parametric online learning algorithm.

This paper introduces the QMDP-net, a neural network architecture for planning under partial observability. The QMDP-net combines the strengths of model-free learning and model-based planning. It is a recurrent policy network, but it represents a policy for a parameterized set of tasks by connecting a model with a planning algorithm that solves the model, thus embedding the solution structure of planning in a network learning architecture. The QMDP-net is fully differentiable and allows for end-to-end training. We train a QMDP-net on different tasks so that it can generalize to new ones in the parameterized task set and “transfer” to other similar tasks beyond the set. In preliminary experiments, QMDP-net showed strong performance on several robotic tasks in simulation. Interestingly, while QMDP-net encodes the QMDP algorithm, it sometimes outperforms the QMDP algorithm in the experiments, as a result of end-to-end learning.

We formulate a supervised learning problem, referred to as continuous ranking, where a continuous real-valued label Y is assigned to an observable r.v. X taking its values in a feature space X and the goal is to order all possible observations x in X by means of a scoring function s : X → R so that s(X) and Y tend to increase or decrease together with highest probability. This problem generalizes bi/multi-partite ranking to a certain extent and the task of finding optimal scoring functions s(x) can be naturally cast as optimization of a dedicated functional cri- terion, called the IROC curve here, or as maximization of the Kendall τ related to the pair (s(X), Y ). From the theoretical side, we describe the optimal elements of this problem and provide statistical guarantees for empirical Kendall τ maximiza- tion under appropriate conditions for the class of scoring function candidates. We also propose a recursive statistical learning algorithm tailored to empirical IROC curve optimization and producing a piecewise constant scoring function that is fully described by an oriented binary tree. Preliminary numerical experiments highlight the difference in nature between regression and continuous ranking and provide strong empirical evidence of the performance of empirical optimizers of the criteria proposed.

We study the online learning problem of a bidder who participates in repeated auctions. With the goal of maximizing his T-period payoff, the bidder determines the optimal allocation of his budget among his bids for $K$ goods at each period. As a bidding strategy, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm, inspired by the dynamic programming approach to the knapsack problem. The proposed algorithm, referred to as dynamic programming on discrete set (DPDS), achieves a regret order of $O(\sqrt{T\log{T}})$. By showing that the regret is lower bounded by $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ for any strategy, we conclude that DPDS is order optimal up to a $\sqrt{\log{T}}$ term. We evaluate the performance of DPDS empirically in the context of virtual trading in wholesale electricity markets by using historical data from the New York market. Empirical results show that DPDS consistently outperforms benchmark heuristic methods that are derived from machine learning and online learning approaches.

This paper investigates the theoretical foundations of metric learning, focused on three key questions that are not fully addressed in prior work: 1) we consider learning general low-dimensional (low-rank) metrics as well as sparse metrics;2) we develop upper and lower (minimax) bounds on the generalization error; 3)we quantify the sample complexity of metric learning in terms of the dimension of the feature space and the dimension/rank of the underlying metric; 4) we also bound the accuracy of the learned metric relative to the underlying true generative metric. All the results involve novel mathematical approaches to the metric learning problem, and also shed new light on the special case of ordinal embedding (aka non-metric multidimensional scaling).

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made that are unfairly biased against certain subpopulations, for example those of a particular race, gender, or sexual orientation. Since this past data may be biased, machine learning predictors must account for this to avoid perpetuating or creating discriminatory practices. In this paper, we develop a framework for modeling fairness using tools from causal inference. Our definition of counterfactual fairness captures the intuition that a decision is fair towards an individual if it the same in (a) the actual world and (b) a counterfactual world where the individual belonged to a different demographic group. We demonstrate our framework on a real-world problem of fair prediction of success in law school.

We consider the parametric learning problem, where the objective of the learner is determined by a parametric loss function. Employing empirical risk minimization with possibly regularization, the inferred parameter vector will be biased toward the training samples. Such bias is measured by the cross validation procedure in practice where the data set is partitioned into a training set used for training and a validation set, which is not used in training and is left to measure the out-of-sample performance. A classical cross validation strategy is the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) where one sample is left out for validation and training is done on the rest of the samples that are presented to the learner, and this process is repeated on all of the samples. LOOCV is rarely used in practice due to the high computational complexity. In this paper, we first develop a computationally efficient approximate LOOCV (ALOOCV) and provide theoretical guarantees for its performance. Then we use ALOOCV to provide an optimization algorithm for finding the regularizer in the empirical risk minimization framework. In our numerical experiments, we illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of ALOOCV as well as our proposed framework for the optimization of the regularizer.

We study fairness in collaborative-filtering recommender systems, which are sensitive to discrimination that exists in historical data. Biased data can lead collaborative-filtering methods to make unfair predictions for users from minority groups. We identify the insufficiency of existing fairness metrics and propose four new metrics that address different forms of unfairness. These fairness metrics can be optimized by adding fairness terms to the learning objective. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that our new metrics can better measure fairness than the baseline, and that the fairness objectives effectively help reduce unfairness.

We consider the problem of repeatedly solving a variant of the same dynamic programming problem in successive trials. An instance of the type of problems we consider is to find a good binary search tree in a changing environment. At the beginning of each trial, the learner probabilistically chooses a tree with the n keys at the internal nodes and the n 1gaps between keys at the leaves. The learner is then told the frequencies of the keys and gaps and is charged by the average search cost for the chosen tree. The problem is online because the frequencies can change between trials. The goal is to develop algorithms with the property that their total average search cost (loss) in all trials is close to the total loss of the best tree chosen in hindsight for all trials. The challenge, of course, is that the algorithm has to deal with exponential number of trees. We develop a general methodology for tackling such problems for a wide class of dynamic programming algorithms. Our framework allows us to extend online learning algorithms like Hedge [16] and Component Hedge [25] to a significantly wider class of combinatorial objects than was possible before.

We propose a deep learning-based approach to the problem of premise selection: selecting mathematical statements relevant for proving a given conjecture. We represent a higher-order logic formula as a graph that is invariant to variable renaming but still fully preserves syntactic and semantic information. We then embed the graph into a vector via a novel embedding method that preserves the information of edge ordering. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on the HolStep dataset, improving the classification accuracy from 83% to 90.3%.