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Machine Learning Analysis of Heterogeneity in the Effect of Student Mindset Interventions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study heterogeneity in the effect of a mindset intervention on student-level performance through an observational dataset from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM). Our analysis uses machine learning (ML) to address the following associated problems: assessing treatment group overlap and covariate balance, imputing conditional average treatment effects, and interpreting imputed effects. By comparing several different model families we illustrate the flexibility of both off-the-shelf and purpose-built estimators. We find that the mindset intervention has a positive average effect of 0.26, 95%-CI [0.22, 0.30], and that heterogeneity in the range of [0.1, 0.4] is moderated by school-level achievement level, poverty concentration, urbanicity, and student prior expectations.


Structural Damage Detection and Localization with Unknown Post-Damage Feature Distribution Using Sequential Change-Point Detection Method

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The high structural deficient rate poses serious risks to the operation of many bridges and buildings. To prevent critical damage and structural collapse, a quick structural health diagnosis tool is needed during normal operation or immediately after extreme events. In structural health monitoring (SHM), many existing works will have limited performance in the quick damage identification process because 1) the damage event needs to be identified with short delay and 2) the post-damage information is usually unavailable. To address these drawbacks, we propose a new damage detection and localization approach based on stochastic time series analysis. Specifically, the damage sensitive features are extracted from vibration signals and follow different distributions before and after a damage event. Hence, we use the optimal change point detection theory to find damage occurrence time. As the existing change point detectors require the post-damage feature distribution, which is unavailable in SHM, we propose a maximum likelihood method to learn the distribution parameters from the time-series data. The proposed damage detection using estimated parameters also achieves the optimal performance. Also, we utilize the detection results to find damage location without any further computation. Validation results show highly accurate damage identification in American Society of Civil Engineers benchmark structure and two shake table experiments.


Machine Learning for Combinatorial Optimization: a Methodological Tour d'Horizon

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper surveys the recent attempts, both from the machine learning and operations research communities, at leveraging machine learning to solve combinatorial optimization problems. Given the hard nature of these problems, state-of-the-art methodologies involve algorithmic decisions that either require too much computing time or are not mathematically well defined. Thus, machine learning looks like a promising candidate to effectively deal with those decisions. We advocate for pushing further the integration of machine learning and combinatorial optimization and detail methodology to do so. A main point of the paper is seeing generic optimization problems as data points and inquiring what is the relevant distribution of problems to use for learning on a given task.


Efficient and Scalable Multi-task Regression on Massive Number of Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many real-world large-scale regression problems can be formulated as Multi-task Learning (MTL) problems with a massive number of tasks, as in retail and transportation domains. However, existing MTL methods still fail to offer both the generalization performance and the scalability for such problems. Scaling up MTL methods to problems with a tremendous number of tasks is a big challenge. Here, we propose a novel algorithm, named Convex Clustering Multi-Task regression Learning (CCMTL), which integrates with convex clustering on the k-nearest neighbor graph of the prediction models. Further, CCMTL efficiently solves the underlying convex problem with a newly proposed optimization method. CCMTL is accurate, efficient to train, and empirically scales linearly in the number of tasks. On both synthetic and real-world datasets, the proposed CCMTL outperforms seven state-of-the-art (SoA) multi-task learning methods in terms of prediction accuracy as well as computational efficiency. On a real-world retail dataset with 23, 812 tasks, CCMTL requires only around 30 seconds to train on a single thread, while the SoA methods need up to hours or even days.


DIY Tinkerers Harness the Power of Artificial Intelligence

WIRED

In late winter of 1975, a scrap of paper started appearing on bulletin boards around the San Francisco Peninsula. "Are you building your own computer?" it asked. If so, you might like to come to a gathering." The invite drew 32 people to a Menlo Park, California, garage for the first meeting of the Homebrew Computer Club, a community of hobbyists intrigued by the potential of a newly affordable component called the microprocessor. One was a young engineer named Steve Wozniak, who later brought a friend named Steve Jobs into the club.



Towards Neural Machine Translation for African Languages

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Given that South African education is in crisis, strategies for improvement and sustainability of high-quality, up-to-date education must be explored. In the migration of education online, inclusion of machine translation for low-resourced local languages becomes necessary. This paper aims to spur the use of current neural machine translation (NMT) techniques for low-resourced local languages. The paper demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on English-to-Setswana translation using the Autshumato dataset. The use of the Transformer architecture beat previous techniques by 5.33 BLEU points. This demonstrates the promise of using current NMT techniques for African languages.


Theoretical Analysis of Adversarial Learning: A Minimax Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a general theoretical method for analyzing the risk bound in the presence of adversaries. In particular, we try to fit the adversarial learning problem into the minimax framework. We first show that the original adversarial learning problem could be reduced to a minimax statistical learning problem by introducing a transport map between distributions. Then we prove a risk bound for this minimax problem in terms of covering numbers. In contrast to previous minimax bounds in \cite{lee,far}, our bound is informative when the radius of the ambiguity set is small. Our method could be applied to multi-class classification problems and commonly-used loss functions such as hinge loss and ramp loss. As two illustrative examples, we derive the adversarial risk bounds for kernel-SVM and deep neural networks. Our results indicate that a stronger adversary might have a negative impact on the complexity of the hypothesis class and the existence of margin could serve as a defense mechanism to counter adversarial attacks.


Community Exploration: From Offline Optimization to Online Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce the community exploration problem that has many real-world applications such as online advertising. In the problem, an explorer allocates limited budget to explore communities so as to maximize the number of members he could meet. We provide a systematic study of the community exploration problem, from offline optimization to online learning. For the offline setting where the sizes of communities are known, we prove that the greedy methods for both of non-adaptive exploration and adaptive exploration are optimal. For the online setting where the sizes of communities are not known and need to be learned from the multi-round explorations, we propose an `upper confidence' like algorithm that achieves the logarithmic regret bounds. By combining the feedback from different rounds, we can achieve a constant regret bound.


Anomaly Detection using Autoencoders in High Performance Computing Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection in supercomputers is a very difficult problem due to the big scale of the systems and the high number of components. The current state of the art for automated anomaly detection employs Machine Learning methods or statistical regression models in a supervised fashion, meaning that the detection tool is trained to distinguish among a fixed set of behaviour classes (healthy and unhealthy states). We propose a novel approach for anomaly detection in High Performance Computing systems based on a Machine (Deep) Learning technique, namely a type of neural network called autoencoder. The key idea is to train a set of autoencoders to learn the normal (healthy) behaviour of the supercomputer nodes and, after training, use them to identify abnormal conditions. This is different from previous approaches which where based on learning the abnormal condition, for which there are much smaller datasets (since it is very hard to identify them to begin with). We test our approach on a real supercomputer equipped with a fine-grained, scalable monitoring infrastructure that can provide large amount of data to characterize the system behaviour. The results are extremely promising: after the training phase to learn the normal system behaviour, our method is capable of detecting anomalies that have never been seen before with a very good accuracy (values ranging between 88% and 96%).