Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence.

Vision transformers are ever larger, more accurate, and more expensive to compute. The expense is even more extreme at high resolution as the number of tokens grows quadratically with the image size. We turn to adaptive computation to cope with this cost by learning to predict where to compute. Our LookWhere method divides the computation between a low-resolution selector and a high-resolution extractor without ever processing the full high-resolution input. We jointly pretrain the selector and extractor without task supervision by distillation from a selfsupervised teacher, in effect, learning where and what to compute simultaneously. Unlike prior token reduction methods, which pay to save by pruning alreadycomputed tokens, and prior token selection methods, which require complex and expensive per-task optimization, LookWhere economically and accurately selects and extracts transferrable representations of images. We show that LookWhere excels at sparse recognition on high-resolution inputs (Traffic Signs), maintaining accuracy while reducing FLOPs by up to 34 and time by 6 . It also excels at standard recognition tasks that are global (ImageNet classification) or local (ADE20K segmentation), improving accuracy while reducing time by 1.36 .

Stochastic gradient optimization is the dominant learning paradigm for a variety of scenarios, from classical supervised learning to modern self-supervised learning. We consider stochastic gradient algorithms for learning problems whose objectives rely on unknown nuisance parameters, and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our results show that, while the presence of a nuisance can alter the optimum and upset the optimization trajectory, the classical stochastic gradient algorithm may still converge under appropriate conditions, such as Neyman orthogonality. Moreover, even when Neyman orthogonality is not satisfied, we show that an algorithm variant with approximately orthogonalized updates (with an approximately orthogonalized gradient oracle) may achieve similar convergence rates. Examples from orthogonal statistical learning/double machine learning and causal inference are discussed.

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across multiple parties without sharing raw data, with semi-asynchronous FL (SAFL) emerging as a balanced approach between synchronous and asynchronous FL. However, SAFL faces significant challenges in optimizing both gradient-based (e.g., FedSGD) and model-based (e.g., FedAvg) aggregation strategies, which exhibit distinct trade-offs in accuracy, convergence speed, and stability. While gradient aggregation achieves faster convergence and higher accuracy, it suffers from pronounced fluctuations, whereas model aggregation offers greater stability but slower convergence and suboptimal accuracy. This paper presents FedQS, the first framework to theoretically analyze and address these disparities in SAFL. FedQS introduces a divide-andconquer strategy to handle client heterogeneity by classifying clients into four distinct types and adaptively optimizing their local training based on data distribution characteristics and available computational resources. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing, and real-world tasks demonstrate that FedQS achieves the highest accuracy, attains the lowest loss, and ranks among the fastest in convergence speed, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

Clustering tabular data remains a significant open challenge in data analysis and machine learning. Unlike for image data, similarity between tabular records often varies across datasets, making the definition of clusters highly dataset-dependent. Furthermore, the absence of supervised signals complicates hyperparameter tuning in deep learning clustering methods, frequently resulting in unstable performance. To address these issues and reduce the need for per-dataset tuning, we adopt an emerging approach in deep learning: zero-shot learning. We propose ZEUS, a selfcontained model capable of clustering new datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. It operates by decomposing complex datasets into meaningful components that can then be clustered effectively. Thanks to pre-training on synthetic datasets generated from a latent-variable prior, it generalizes across various datasets without requiring user intervention. To the best of our knowledge, ZEUS is the first zero-shot method capable of generating embeddings for tabular data in a fully unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that it performs on par with or better than traditional clustering algorithms and recent deep learning-based methods, while being significantly faster and more user-friendly.

Deep ensembles deliver state-of-the-art, reliable uncertainty quantification, but their heavy computational and memory requirements hinder their practical deployments to real applications such as on-device AI. Knowledge distillation compresses an ensemble into small student models, but existing techniques struggle to preserve uncertainty partly because reducing the size of DNNs typically results in variation reduction. To resolve this limitation, we introduce a new method of distribution distillation (i.e.

Accurate network estimation serves as the cornerstone for understanding complex systems across scientific domains, from decoding gene regulatory networks in systems biology to identifying social relationship patterns in computational sociology. Modern applications demand methods that simultaneously address two critical challenges: capturing nonlinear dependencies between variables and reconstructing inherent hierarchical structures where higher-level entities coordinate lower-level components (e.g., functional pathways organizing gene clusters). Traditional Gaussian graphical models fundamentally fail in these aspects due to their restrictive linear assumptions and flat network representations. We propose NNBLNet, a neural network-based learning framework for bi-level network inference. The core innovation lies in hierarchical selection layers that enforce structural consistency between high-level coordinator groups and their constituent low-level connections via adaptive sparsity constraints. This architecture is integrated with a compositional neural network architecture that learn cross-level association patterns through constrained nonlinear transformations, explicitly preserving hierarchical dependencies while overcoming the representational limitations of linear methods. Crucially, we establish formal theoretical guarantees for the consistent recovery of both high-level connections and their internal low-level structures under general statistical regimes. Extensive validation demonstrates NNBLNet's effectiveness across synthetic and real-world scenarios, achieving superior F1 scores compared to competitive methods and particularly beneficial for complex systems analysis through its interpretable bi-level structure discovery.

In this work, we introduce RoleBench, a benchmark focused on evaluating compositional generalization in action-based relations (e.g., "mouse chasing cat"). We show that state-of-the-art T2I models and compositional generation methods consistently default to frequent reversed relations (i.e., "cat chasing mouse"), a phenomenon we call role collapse. Related works attribute this to the model's architectural limitation or underrepresentation in the data. Our key insight reveals that while models fail on rare compositions when their inversions are common, they can successfully generate similar intermediate compositions (e.g., "mouse chasing boy"), suggesting that this limitation is also due to the presence of frequent counterparts rather than just the absence of rare compositions. Motivated by this, we hypothesize that directional decomposition can gradually mitigate role collapse. We test this via ReBind, a lightweight framework that teaches role bindings using carefully selected active/passive intermediate compositions. Experiments suggest that intermediate compositions through simple fine-tuning can significantly reduce role collapse, with humans preferring ReBind more than 78% compared to state-of-the-art methods. Our findings highlight the role of distributional asymmetries in compositional failures and offer a simple, effective path for improving generalization.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive results on complex reasoning tasks, but their high inference cost remains a major barrier to real-world deployment. A promising solution is to use cascaded inference, where small, cheap models handle easy queries, and only the hardest examples are escalated to more powerful models. However, existing cascade methods typically rely on supervised training with labeled data, offer no theoretical generalization guarantees, and provide limited control over test-time computational cost. We introduce C3PO (Cost Controlled Cascaded Prediction Optimization), a self-supervised framework for optimizing LLM cascades under probabilistic cost constraints. By focusing on minimizing regret with respect to the most powerful model (MPM), C3PO avoids the need for labeled data by constructing a cascade using only unlabeled model outputs. It leverages conformal prediction to bound the probability that inference cost exceeds a user-specified budget. We provide theoretical guarantees on both cost control and generalization error, and show that our optimization procedure is effective even with small calibration sets. Empirically, C3PO achieves stateof-the-art performance across a diverse set of reasoning benchmarks including GSM8K, MATH-500, BigBench-Hard and AIME, outperforming strong LLM cascading baselines in both accuracy and cost-efficiency. Our results demonstrate that principled, label-free cascade optimization can enable scalable LLM deployment.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being asked to make economically rational decisions and indeed are already being applied to economic tasks like stock picking and financial analysis. Existing LLM benchmarks tend to focus on specific applications, making them insufficient for characterizing economic reasoning more broadly. In previous work, we offered a blueprint for comprehensively benchmarking strategic decision-making Raman et al. [2024]. However, this work did not engage with the even larger microeconomic literature on non-strategic settings. We address this gap here, taxonomizing microeconomic reasoning into 58distinct elements, each grounded in up to 10distinct domains, 5perspectives, and 3types. The generation of benchmark data across this combinatorial space is powered by a novel LLM-assisted data generation protocol that we dub auto-STEER, which generates a set of questions by adapting handwritten templates to target new domains and perspectives. By generating fresh questions for each element, auto-STEER induces diversity which could help to reduce the risk of data contamination. We use this benchmark to evaluate 27LLMs spanning a range of scales and adaptation strategies, comparing performance across multiple formats--multiple-choice and free-text question answering--and scoring schemes. Our results surface systematic limitations in current LLMs' ability to generalize economic reasoning across types, formats, and textual perturbations, and establish a foundation for evaluating and improving economic competence in foundation models.