Causal effect estimation is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground-truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-theart predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic causal data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph.

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies. However, selecting the most desirable set, such as the smallest, can invalidate the coverage guarantees. To address this challenge, we propose a stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set. We extend our results to the online conformal setting, propose several refinements in settings where additional structure is available, and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful models for node classification, but their performance is heavily reliant on manually labeled data, which is often costly and results in insufficient labeling. Recent studies have shown that message-passing neural networks struggle to propagate information in low-degree nodes, negatively affecting overall performance. To address the information bias caused by degree imbalance, we propose a Learnable Enhancement and Label Selection Dynamic Graph Convolutional Network (L2DGCN). L2DGCN consists of a teacher model and a student model. The teacher model employs an improved label propagation mechanism that enables remote label information dissemination among all nodes.

We address the challenge of adopting language models (LMs) for embodied tasks in dynamic environments, where online access to large-scale inference engines or symbolic planners is constrained due to latency, connectivity, and resource limitations. To this end, we present NESYPR, a novel embodied reasoning framework that compiles knowledge via neurosymbolic proceduralization, thereby equipping LM-based agents with structured, adaptive, and timely reasoning capabilities. In NESYPR, task-specific plans are first explicitly generated by a symbolic tool leveraging its declarative knowledge. These plans are then transformed into composable procedural representations that encode the plans' implicit production rules, enabling the resulting composed procedures to be seamlessly integrated into the LM's inference process. This neurosymbolic proceduralization abstracts and generalizes multi-step symbolic structured path-finding and reasoning into single-step LM inference, akin to human knowledge compilation. It supports efficient test-time inference without relying on external symbolic guidance, making it well suited for deployment in latency-sensitive and resource-constrained physical systems. We evaluate NESYPR on the embodied benchmarks PDDLGym, VirtualHome, and ALFWorld, demonstrating its efficient reasoning capabilities over large-scale reasoning models and a symbolic planner, while using more compact LMs.

This adaptive mechanism adjusts the resolution of the predictions over both time and space, yielding refined regret bounds in terms of local regularity. Consequently, in heterogeneous environments, our adaptive guarantees can significantly surpass those obtained by standard global methods.

AI systems are increasingly able to autonomously conduct realistic software engineering tasks, and may soon be deployed to automate machine learning (ML) R&D itself. Frontier AI systems may be deployed in safety-critical settings, including to help ensure the safety of future systems. Unfortunately, frontier and future systems may not be sufficiently trustworthy, and there is evidence that these systems may even be misaligned with their developers or users. Therefore, we investigate the capabilities of AI agents to act against the interests of their users when conducting ML engineering, by sabotaging ML models, sandbagging their performance, and subverting oversight mechanisms. First, we extend MLE-Bench, a benchmark for realistic ML tasks, with code-sabotage tasks such as implanting backdoors and purposefully causing generalisation failures.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities across tasks such as mathematics, coding, and reasoning, yet their learning ability, which is crucial for adapting to dynamic environments and acquiring new knowledge, remains underexplored. In this work, we address this gap by introducing a framework inspired by cognitive psychology and education. Specifically, we decompose general learning ability into three distinct, complementary dimensions: Learning from Instructor (acquiring knowledge via explicit guidance), Learning from Concept (internalizing abstract structures and generalizing to new contexts), and Learning from Experience (adapting through accumulated exploration and feedback). We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across the three learning dimensions and identify several insightful findings, such as (i) interaction improves learning; (ii) conceptual understanding is scale-emergent and benefits larger models; and (iii) LLMs are effective few-shot learners but not many-shot learners. Based on our framework and empirical findings, we introduce a benchmark that provides a unified and realistic evaluation of LLMs' general learning abilities across three learning cognition dimensions. It enables diagnostic insights and supports evaluation and development of more adaptive and human-like models. The code is available here 2.

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids making strong distributional assumptions. Methods for conformal aggregation have been proposed for ensembled prediction, where the prediction regions of individual models are merged to retain coverage guarantees while minimizing conservatism. Merging the prediction regions directly, however, can miss out on opportunities to further reduce conservatism by exploiting structures present in the conformal scores. We, therefore, propose a novel framework that extends the standard scalar formulation of a score function to a multivariate score that produces more efficient prediction regions. We then demonstrate that such a framework can be efficiently leveraged in both classification and predict-then-optimize regression settings downstream and empirically show the advantage over alternate conformal aggregation methods.

For Large Language Models (LLMs) to be reliably deployed in both everyday and high-stakes domains, knowing when not to answer is equally critical as answering correctly. Real-world user queries, which can be underspecified, ill-posed, or fundamentally unanswerable, require LLMs to reason about uncertainty and selectively abstain--i.e., refuse to answer definitively. However, abstention remains understudied, without a systematic evaluation framework for modern LLMs. In this work, we introduce AbstentionBench: a large-scale benchmark for holistically evaluating abstention across 20 diverse datasets, including questions with unknown answers, underspecification, false premises, subjective interpretations, and outdated information. Evaluating 20 frontier LLMs reveals abstention is an unsolved problem, and one where scaling models is of little use. While recent reasoning LLMs have shown impressive results in complex problem solving, surprisingly, we find that reasoning fine-tuning degrades abstention (by 24% on average), even for math and science domains on which reasoning models are explicitly trained. We find that while a carefully crafted system prompt can boost abstention in practice, it does not resolve models' fundamental inability to reason about uncertainty. We release AbstentionBenchto foster research into advancing LLM reliability.2

Uncertain knowledge graphs (UKGs) associate each triple with a confidence score to provide more precise knowledge representations. Recently, since real-world UKGs suffer from the incompleteness, uncertain knowledge graph (UKG) completion attracts more attention, aiming to complete missing triples and confidences. Current studies attempt to learn UKG embeddings to solve this problem, but they neglect the extremely imbalanced distributions of triple confidences. This causes that the learnt embeddings are insufficient to high-quality UKG completion. Thus, in this paper, to address the above issue, we propose a new semi-supervised Confidence Distribution Learning (ssCDL) method for UKG completion, where each triple confidence is transformed into a confidence distribution to introduce more supervision information of different confidences to reinforce the embedding learning process.