We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Models trained with counterfactually augmented data learn representations of the causal structure of tasks, enabling robust generalization. However, high-quality counterfactual data is scarce for most tasks and not easily generated at scale. When crowdsourced, such data is typically limited in scale and diversity; when generated using supervised methods, it is computationally expensive to extend to new counterfactual dimensions. In this work, we introduce DISCO (DIStilled COunterfactual Data), a new method for automatically generating high quality counterfactual data at scale. DISCO engineers prompts to generate phrasal perturbations with a large general language model. Then, a task-specific teacher model filters these generations to distill high-quality counterfactual data. While task-agnostic, we apply our pipeline to the task of natural language inference (NLI) and find that on challenging evaluations such as the NLI stress test, comparatively smaller student models trained with DISCO generated counterfactuals are more robust (6% absolute) and generalize better across distributions (2%) compared to models trained without data augmentation. Furthermore, DISCO augmented models are 10% more consistent between counterfactual pairs on three evaluation sets, demonstrating that DISCO augmentation enables models to more reliably learn causal representations. Our repository is available at: https://github.com/eric11eca/disco

Despite Federated Learning (FL)'s trend for learning machine learning models in a distributed manner, it is susceptible to performance drops when training on heterogeneous data. In addition, FL inevitability faces the challenges of synchronization, efficiency, and privacy. Recently, dataset distillation has been explored in order to improve the efficiency and scalability of FL by creating a smaller, synthetic dataset that retains the performance of a model trained on the local private datasets. We discover that using distilled local datasets can amplify the heterogeneity issue in FL. To address this, we propose a new method, called Federated Virtual Learning on Heterogeneous Data with Local-Global Distillation (FedLGD), which trains FL using a smaller synthetic dataset (referred as virtual data) created through a combination of local and global dataset distillation. Specifically, to handle synchronization and class imbalance, we propose iterative distribution matching to allow clients to have the same amount of balanced local virtual data; to harmonize the domain shifts, we use federated gradient matching to distill global virtual data that are shared with clients without hindering data privacy to rectify heterogeneous local training via enforcing local-global feature similarity. We experiment on both benchmark and real-world datasets that contain heterogeneous data from different sources, and further scale up to an FL scenario that contains large number of clients with heterogeneous and class imbalance data. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art heterogeneous FL algorithms under various settings with a very limited amount of distilled virtual data.

This work considers the problem of transferring causal knowledge between tasks for Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation. To this end, we theoretically assess the feasibility of transferring ITE knowledge and present a practical framework for efficient transfer. A lower bound is introduced on the ITE error of the target task to demonstrate that ITE knowledge transfer is challenging due to the absence of counterfactual information. Nevertheless, we establish generalization upper bounds on the counterfactual loss and ITE error of the target task, demonstrating the feasibility of ITE knowledge transfer. Subsequently, we introduce a framework with a new Causal Inference Task Affinity (CITA) measure for ITE knowledge transfer. Specifically, we use CITA to find the closest source task to the target task and utilize it for ITE knowledge transfer. Empirical studies are provided, demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed method. We observe that ITE knowledge transfer can significantly (up to 95%) reduce the amount of data required for ITE estimation.

Generative modeling has been the dominant approach for large-scale pretraining and zero-shot generalization. In this work, we challenge this convention by showing that discriminative approaches perform substantially better than generative ones on a large number of NLP tasks. Technically, we train a single discriminator to predict whether a text sample comes from the true data distribution, similar to GANs. Since many NLP tasks can be formulated as selecting from a few options, we use this discriminator to predict the concatenation of input and which option has the highest probability of coming from the true data distribution. This simple formulation achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot results on the T0 benchmark, outperforming T0 by 16.0\%, 7.8\%, and 11.5\% respectively on different scales. In the finetuning setting, our approach also achieves new state-of-the-art results on a wide range of NLP tasks, with only 1/4 parameters of previous methods. Meanwhile, our approach requires minimal prompting efforts, which largely improves robustness and is essential for real-world applications. Furthermore, we also jointly train a generalized UD in combination with generative tasks, which maintains its advantage on discriminative tasks and simultaneously works on generative tasks.

Modern deep learning systems do not generalize well when the test data distribution is slightly different to the training data distribution. While much promising work has been accomplished to address this fragility, a systematic study of the role of optimizers and their out-of-distribution generalization performance has not been undertaken. In this study, we examine the performance of popular first-order optimizers for different classes of distributional shift under empirical risk minimization and invariant risk minimization. We address this question for image and text classification using DomainBed, WILDS, and Backgrounds Challenge as testbeds for studying different types of shifts -- namely correlation and diversity shift. We search over a wide range of hyperparameters and examine classification accuracy (in-distribution and out-of-distribution) for over 20,000 models. We arrive at the following findings, which we expect to be helpful for practitioners: i) adaptive optimizers (e.g., Adam) perform worse than non-adaptive optimizers (e.g., SGD, momentum SGD) on out-of-distribution performance. In particular, even though there is no significant difference in in-distribution performance, we show a measurable difference in out-of-distribution performance. ii) in-distribution performance and out-of-distribution performance exhibit three types of behavior depending on the dataset -- linear returns, increasing returns, and diminishing returns. For example, in the training of natural language data using Adam, fine-tuning the performance of in-distribution performance does not significantly contribute to the out-of-distribution generalization performance.

With the success of neural language models (LMs), their language acquisition has gained much attention. This work sheds light on the second language (L2) acquisition of LMs, while previous work has typically explored their first language (L1) acquisition. Specifically, we trained bilingual LMs with a scenario similar to human L2 acquisition and analyzed their cross-lingual transfer from linguistic perspectives. Our exploratory experiments demonstrated that the L1 pretraining accelerated their linguistic generalization in L2, and language transfer configurations (e.g., the L1 choice, and presence of parallel texts) substantially affected their generalizations. These clarify their (non-)human-like L2 acquisition in particular aspects.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Self-supervised learning enables networks to learn discriminative features from massive data itself. Most state-of-the-art methods maximize the similarity between two augmentations of one image based on contrastive learning. By utilizing the consistency of two augmentations, the burden of manual annotations can be freed. Contrastive learning exploits instance-level information to learn robust features. However, the learned information is probably confined to different views of the same instance. In this paper, we attempt to leverage the similarity between two distinct images to boost representation in self-supervised learning. In contrast to instance-level information, the similarity between two distinct images may provide more useful information. Besides, we analyze the relation between similarity loss and feature-level cross-entropy loss. These two losses are essential for most deep learning methods. However, the relation between these two losses is not clear. Similarity loss helps obtain instance-level representation, while feature-level cross-entropy loss helps mine the similarity between two distinct images. We provide theoretical analyses and experiments to show that a suitable combination of these two losses can get state-of-the-art results. Code is available at https://github.com/guijiejie/ICCL.

The information retrieval community has made significant progress in improving the efficiency of Dual Encoder (DE) dense passage retrieval systems, making them suitable for latency-sensitive settings. However, many proposed procedures are often too complex or resource-intensive, which makes it difficult for practitioners to adopt them or identify sources of empirical gains. Therefore, in this work, we propose a trivially simple recipe to serve as a baseline method for boosting the efficiency of DE retrievers leveraging an asymmetric architecture. Our results demonstrate that even a 2-layer, BERT-based query encoder can still retain 92.5% of the full DE performance on the BEIR benchmark via unsupervised distillation and proper student initialization. We hope that our findings will encourage the community to re-evaluate the trade-offs between method complexity and performance improvements.