Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) enhance personalized learning by predicting student answers to provide immediate and customized instruction. However, recent research has primarily focused on the correctness of the answer rather than the student's performance on specific answer choices, limiting insights into students' thought processes and potential misconceptions. To address this gap, we present MCQStudentBert, an answer forecasting model that leverages the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate contextual understanding of students' answering history along with the text of the questions and answers. By predicting the specific answer choices students are likely to make, practitioners can easily extend the model to new answer choices or remove answer choices for the same multiple-choice question (MCQ) without retraining the model. In particular, we compare MLP, LSTM, BERT, and Mistral 7B architectures to generate embeddings from students' past interactions, which are then incorporated into a finetuned BERT's answer-forecasting mechanism. We apply our pipeline to a dataset of language learning MCQ, gathered from an ITS with over 10,000 students to explore the predictive accuracy of MCQStudentBert, which incorporates student interaction patterns, in comparison to correct answer prediction and traditional mastery-learning feature-based approaches. This work opens the door to more personalized content, modularization, and granular support.

We present new results to model and understand the role of encoder-decoder design in machine learning (ML) from an information-theoretic angle. We use two main information concepts, information sufficiency (IS) and mutual information loss (MIL), to represent predictive structures in machine learning. Our first main result provides a functional expression that characterizes the class of probabilistic models consistent with an IS encoder-decoder latent predictive structure. This result formally justifies the encoder-decoder forward stages many modern ML architectures adopt to learn latent (compressed) representations for classification. To illustrate IS as a realistic and relevant model assumption, we revisit some known ML concepts and present some interesting new examples: invariant, robust, sparse, and digital models. Furthermore, our IS characterization allows us to tackle the fundamental question of how much performance (predictive expressiveness) could be lost, using the cross entropy risk, when a given encoder-decoder architecture is adopted in a learning setting. Here, our second main result shows that a mutual information loss quantifies the lack of expressiveness attributed to the choice of a (biased) encoder-decoder ML design. Finally, we address the problem of universal cross-entropy learning with an encoder-decoder design where necessary and sufficiency conditions are established to meet this requirement. In all these results, Shannon's information measures offer new interpretations and explanations for representation learning.

Existing learning rate schedules that do not require specification of the optimization stopping step T are greatly out-performed by learning rate schedules that depend on T. We propose an approach that avoids the need for this stopping time by eschewing the use of schedules entirely, while exhibiting state-of-the-art performance compared to schedules across a wide family of problems ranging from convex problems to large-scale deep learning problems. Our Schedule-Free approach introduces no additional hyper-parameters over standard optimizers with momentum. Our method is a direct consequence of a new theory we develop that unifies scheduling and iterate averaging.

We provide an online learning algorithm that obtains regret $G\|w_\star\|\sqrt{T\log(\|w_\star\|G\sqrt{T})} + \|w_\star\|^2 + G^2$ on $G$-Lipschitz convex losses for any comparison point $w_\star$ without knowing either $G$ or $\|w_\star\|$. Importantly, this matches the optimal bound $G\|w_\star\|\sqrt{T}$ available with such knowledge (up to logarithmic factors), unless either $\|w_\star\|$ or $G$ is so large that even $G\|w_\star\|\sqrt{T}$ is roughly linear in $T$. Thus, it matches the optimal bound in all cases in which one can achieve sublinear regret, which arguably most "interesting" scenarios.

We explore online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes on non-stationary environments (changing losses and probability transitions). Our focus is on the Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning problem (CURL), an extension of classical RL for handling convex performance criteria in state-action distributions induced by agent policies. While various machine learning problems can be written as CURL, its non-linearity invalidates traditional Bellman equations. Despite recent solutions to classical CURL, none address non-stationary MDPs. This paper introduces MetaCURL, the first CURL algorithm for non-stationary MDPs. It employs a meta-algorithm running multiple black-box algorithms instances over different intervals, aggregating outputs via a sleeping expert framework. The key hurdle is partial information due to MDP uncertainty. Under partial information on the probability transitions (uncertainty and non-stationarity coming only from external noise, independent of agent state-action pairs), we achieve optimal dynamic regret without prior knowledge of MDP changes. Unlike approaches for RL, MetaCURL handles full adversarial losses, not just stochastic ones. We believe our approach for managing non-stationarity with experts can be of interest to the RL community.

Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) is a powerful framework for various online learning problems. By designing its regularizer and learning rate to be adaptive to past observations, FTRL is known to work adaptively to various properties of an underlying environment. However, most existing adaptive learning rates are for online learning problems with a minimax regret of $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ for the number of rounds $T$, and there are only a few studies on adaptive learning rates for problems with a minimax regret of $\Theta(T^{2/3})$, which include several important problems dealing with indirect feedback. To address this limitation, we establish a new adaptive learning rate framework for problems with a minimax regret of $\Theta(T^{2/3})$. Our learning rate is designed by matching the stability, penalty, and bias terms that naturally appear in regret upper bounds for problems with a minimax regret of $\Theta(T^{2/3})$. As applications of this framework, we consider two major problems dealing with indirect feedback: partial monitoring and graph bandits. We show that FTRL with our learning rate and the Tsallis entropy regularizer improves existing Best-of-Both-Worlds (BOBW) regret upper bounds, which achieve simultaneous optimality in the stochastic and adversarial regimes. The resulting learning rate is surprisingly simple compared to the existing learning rates for BOBW algorithms for problems with a minimax regret of $\Theta(T^{2/3})$.

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes. The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate, and empirically outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.

Humans have an innate drive to seek out causality. Whether fuelled by curiosity or specific goals, we constantly question why things happen, how they are interconnected, and many other related phenomena. To develop AI agents capable of addressing this natural human quest for causality, we urgently need a comprehensive dataset of natural causal questions. Unfortunately, existing datasets either contain only artificially-crafted questions that do not reflect real AI usage scenarios or have limited coverage of questions from specific sources. To address this gap, we present CausalQuest, a dataset of 13,500 naturally occurring questions sourced from social networks, search engines, and AI assistants. We formalize the definition of causal questions and establish a taxonomy for finer-grained classification. Through a combined effort of human annotators and large language models (LLMs), we carefully label the dataset. We find that 42% of the questions humans ask are indeed causal, with the majority seeking to understand the causes behind given effects. Using this dataset, we train efficient classifiers (up to 2.85B parameters) for the binary task of identifying causal questions, achieving high performance with F1 scores of up to 0.877. We conclude with a rich set of future research directions that can build upon our data and models.

At a time when people worry they could be replaced by AI in their jobs, some are using that same tech to help guide them at work. People already turn to generative AI for the kind of advice provided by professionals -- things like dating tips, trip planning and how to deal with toxic people.

The 2024 Index is our most comprehensive to date and arrives at an important moment when AI's influence on society has never been more pronounced. This year, we have broadened our scope to more extensively cover essential trends such as technical advancements in AI, public perceptions of the technology, and the geopolitical dynamics surrounding its development. Featuring more original data than ever before, this edition introduces new estimates on AI training costs, detailed analyses of the responsible AI landscape, and an entirely new chapter dedicated to AI's impact on science and medicine. The AI Index report tracks, collates, distills, and visualizes data related to artificial intelligence (AI). Our mission is to provide unbiased, rigorously vetted, broadly sourced data in order for policymakers, researchers, executives, journalists, and the general public to develop a more thorough and nuanced understanding of the complex field of AI. The AI Index is recognized globally as one of the most credible and authoritative sources for data and insights on artificial intelligence. Previous editions have been cited in major newspapers, including the The New York Times, Bloomberg, and The Guardian, have amassed hundreds of academic citations, and been referenced by high-level policymakers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, among other places. This year's edition surpasses all previous ones in size, scale, and scope, reflecting the growing significance that AI is coming to hold in all of our lives.