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Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO): A Novel Uncertainty-Calibrated Offline Reinforcement Learning with Credible Lower Bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution shifts: value-based methods can overestimate the value of unseen actions, yielding policies that exploit model errors rather than genuine long-term rewards. We propose \emph{Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO)}, a unified framework that converts epistemic uncertainty into \emph{provably conservative} policy improvement. BCPO maintains a hierarchical Bayesian posterior over environment/value models, constructs a \emph{credible lower bound} (LCB) on action values, and performs policy updates under explicit KL regularization toward the behavior distribution. This yields an uncertainty-calibrated analogue of conservative policy iteration in the offline regime. We provide a finite-MDP theory showing that the pessimistic fixed point lower-bounds the true value function with high probability and that KL-controlled updates improve a computable return lower bound. Empirically, we verify the methodology on a real offline replay dataset for the CartPole benchmark obtained via the \texttt{d3rlpy} ecosystem, and report diagnostics that link uncertainty growth and policy drift to offline instability, motivating principled early stopping and calibration


A theory of learning data statistics in diffusion models, from easy to hard

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While diffusion models have emerged as a powerful class of generative models, their learning dynamics remain poorly understood. We address this issue first by empirically showing that standard diffusion models trained on natural images exhibit a distributional simplicity bias, learning simple, pair-wise input statistics before specializing to higher-order correlations. We reproduce this behaviour in simple denoisers trained on a minimal data model, the mixed cumulant model, where we precisely control both pair-wise and higher-order correlations of the inputs. We identify a scalar invariant of the model that governs the sample complexity of learning pair-wise and higher-order correlations that we call the diffusion information exponent, in analogy to related invariants in different learning paradigms. Using this invariant, we prove that the denoiser learns simple, pair-wise statistics of the inputs at linear sample complexity, while more complex higher-order statistics, such as the fourth cumulant, require at least cubic sample complexity. We also prove that the sample complexity of learning the fourth cumulant is linear if pair-wise and higher-order statistics share a correlated latent structure. Our work describes a key mechanism for how diffusion models can learn distributions of increasing complexity.


Variational Garrote for Sparse Inverse Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparse regularization plays a central role in solving inverse problems arising from incomplete or corrupted measurements. Different regularizers correspond to different prior assumptions about the structure of the unknown signal, and reconstruction performance depends on how well these priors match the intrinsic sparsity of the data. This work investigates the effect of sparsity priors in inverse problems by comparing conventional L1 regularization with the Variational Garrote (VG), a probabilistic method that approximates L0 sparsity through variational binary gating variables. A unified experimental framework is constructed across multiple reconstruction tasks including signal resampling, signal denoising, and sparse-view computed tomography. To enable consistent comparison across models with different parameterizations, regularization strength is swept across wide ranges and reconstruction behavior is analyzed through train-generalization error curves. Experiments reveal characteristic bias-variance tradeoff patterns across tasks and demonstrate that VG frequently achieves lower minimum generalization error and improved stability in strongly underdetermined regimes where accurate support recovery is critical. These results suggest that sparsity priors closer to spike-and-slab structure can provide advantages when the underlying coefficient distribution is strongly sparse. The study highlights the importance of prior-data alignment in sparse inverse problems and provides empirical insights into the behavior of variational L0-type methods across different information bottlenecks.


Probabilistic Joint and Individual Variation Explained (ProJIVE) for Data Integration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Collecting multiple types of data on the same set of subjects is common in modern scientific applications including, genomics, metabolomics, and neuroimaging. Joint and Individual Variance Explained (JIVE) seeks a low-rank approximation of the joint variation between two or more sets of features captured on common subjects and isolates this variation from that unique to eachset of features. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate a probabilistic model for the JIVE framework. The model extends probabilistic principal components analysis to multiple data sets. Our maximum likelihood approach simultaneously estimates joint and individual components, which can lead to greater accuracy compared to other methods. We apply ProJIVE to measures of brain morphometry and cognition in Alzheimer's disease. ProJIVE learns biologically meaningful courses of variation, and the joint morphometry and cognition subject scores are strongly related to more expensive existing biomarkers. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Code to reproduce the analysis is available on our GitHub page.


Influence Malleability in Linearized Attention: Dual Implications of Non-Convergent NTK Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding the theoretical foundations of attention mechanisms remains challenging due to their complex, non-linear dynamics. This work reveals a fundamental trade-off in the learning dynamics of linearized attention. Using a linearized attention mechanism with exact correspondence to a data-dependent Gram-induced kernel, both empirical and theoretical analysis through the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) framework shows that linearized attention does not converge to its infinite-width NTK limit, even at large widths. A spectral amplification result establishes this formally: the attention transformation cubes the Gram matrix's condition number, requiring width $m = ฮฉ(ฮบ^6)$ for convergence, a threshold that exceeds any practical width for natural image datasets. This non-convergence is characterized through influence malleability, the capacity to dynamically alter reliance on training examples. Attention exhibits 6--9$\times$ higher malleability than ReLU networks, with dual implications: its data-dependent kernel can reduce approximation error by aligning with task structure, but this same sensitivity increases susceptibility to adversarial manipulation of training data. These findings suggest that attention's power and vulnerability share a common origin in its departure from the kernel regime.


VecMol: Vector-Field Representations for 3D Molecule Generation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative modeling of three-dimensional (3D) molecules is a fundamental yet challenging problem in drug discovery and materials science. Existing approaches typically represent molecules as 3D graphs and co-generate discrete atom types with continuous atomic coordinates, leading to intrinsic learning difficulties such as heterogeneous modality entanglement and geometry-chemistry coherence constraints. We propose VecMol, a paradigm-shifting framework that reimagines molecular representation by modeling 3D molecules as continuous vector fields over Euclidean space, where vectors point toward nearby atoms and implicitly encode molecular structure. The vector field is parameterized by a neural field and generated using a latent diffusion model, avoiding explicit graph generation and decoupling structure learning from discrete atom instantiation. Experiments on the QM9 and GEOM-Drugs benchmarks validate the feasibility of this novel approach, suggesting vector-field-based representations as a promising new direction for 3D molecular generation.


Finite Difference Flow Optimization for RL Post-Training of Text-to-Image Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard technique for post-training diffusion-based image synthesis models, as it enables learning from reward signals to explicitly improve desirable aspects such as image quality and prompt alignment. In this paper, we propose an online RL variant that reduces the variance in the model updates by sampling paired trajectories and pulling the flow velocity in the direction of the more favorable image. Unlike existing methods that treat each sampling step as a separate policy action, we consider the entire sampling process as a single action. We experiment with both high-quality vision language models and off-the-shelf quality metrics for rewards, and evaluate the outputs using a broad set of metrics. Our method converges faster and yields higher output quality and prompt alignment than previous approaches.


A New Kernel Regularity Condition for Distributed Mirror Descent: Broader Coverage and Simpler Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Existing convergence of distributed optimization methods in non-Euclidean geometries typically rely on kernel assumptions: (i) global Lipschitz smoothness and (ii) bi-convexity of the associated Bregman divergence function. Unfortunately, these conditions are violated by nearly all kernels used in practice, leaving a huge theory-practice gap. This work closes this gap by developing a unified analytical tool that guarantees convergence under mild conditions. Specifically, we introduce Hessian relative uniform continuity (HRUC), a regularity satisfied by nearly all standard kernels. Importantly, HRUC is closed under concatenation, positive scaling, composition, and various kernel combinations. Leveraging the geometric structure induced by HRUC, we derive convergence guarantees for mirror descent-based gradient tracking without imposing any restrictive assumptions. More broadly, our analysis techniques extend seamlessly to other decentralized optimization methods in genuinely non-Euclidean and non-Lipschitz settings.


Adaptive Conditional Forest Sampling for Spectral Risk Optimisation under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Minimising a spectral risk objective, defined as a convex combination of expected cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), is challenging when the uncertainty distribution is decision-dependent, making both surrogate modelling and simulation-based ranking sensitive to tail estimation error. We propose Adaptive Conditional Forest Sampling (ACFS), a four-phase simulation-optimisation framework that integrates Generalised Random Forests for decision-conditional distribution approximation, CEM-guided global exploration, rank-weighted focused augmentation, and surrogate-to-oracle two-stage reranking before multi-start gradient-based refinement. We evaluate ACFS on two structurally distinct data-generating processes: a decision-dependent Student-t copula and a Gaussian copula with log-normal marginals, across three penalty-weight configurations and 100 replications per setting. ACFS achieves the lowest median oracle spectral risk on the second benchmark in every configuration, with median gaps over GP-BO ranging from 6.0% to 20.0%. On the first benchmark, ACFS and GP-BO are statistically indistinguishable in median objective, but ACFS reduces cross-replication dispersion by approximately 1.8 to 1.9 times on the first benchmark and 1.7 to 2.0 times on the second, indicating materially improved run-to-run reliability. ACFS also outperforms CEM-SO, SGD-CVaR, and KDE-SO in nearly all settings, while ablation and sensitivity analyses support the contribution and robustness of the proposed design.


EB-RANSAC: Random Sample Consensus based on Energy-Based Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Random sample consensus (RANSAC), which is based on a repetitive sampling from a given dataset, is one of the most popular robust estimation methods. In this study, an energy-based model (EBM) for robust estimation that has a similar scheme to RANSAC, energy-based RANSAC (EB-RANSAC), is proposed. EB-RANSAC is applicable to a wide range of estimation problems similar to RANSAC. However, unlike RANSAC, EB-RANSAC does not require a troublesome sampling procedure and has only one hyperparameter. The effectiveness of EB-RANSAC is numerically demonstrated in two applications: a linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation.