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BrainCast: A Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model for Whole-Brain fMRI Time Series Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables noninvasive investigation of brain function, while short clinical scan durations, arising from human and non-human factors, usually lead to reduced data quality and limited statistical power for neuroimaging research. In this paper, we propose BrainCast, a novel spatio-temporal forecasting framework specifically tailored for whole-brain fMRI time series forecasting, to extend informative fMRI time series without additional data acquisition. It formulates fMRI time series forecasting as a multivariate time series prediction task and jointly models temporal dynamics within regions of interest (ROIs) and spatial interactions across ROIs. Specifically, BrainCast integrates a Spatial Interaction Awareness module to characterize inter-ROI dependencies via embedding every ROI time series as a token, a Temporal Feature Refinement module to capture intrinsic neural dynamics within each ROI by enhancing both low- and high-energy temporal components of fMRI time series at the ROI level, and a Spatio-temporal Pattern Alignment module to combine spatial and temporal representations for producing informative whole-brain features. Experimental results on resting-state and task fMRI datasets from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the superiority of BrainCast over state-of-the-art time series forecasting baselines. Moreover, fMRI time series extended by BrainCast improve downstream cognitive ability prediction, highlighting the clinical and neuroscientific impact brought by whole-brain fMRI time series forecasting in scenarios with restricted scan durations.


Riemannian Motion Generation: A Unified Framework for Human Motion Representation and Generation via Riemannian Flow Matching

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Human motion generation is often learned in Euclidean spaces, although valid motions follow structured non-Euclidean geometry. We present Riemannian Motion Generation (RMG), a unified framework that represents motion on a product manifold and learns dynamics via Riemannian flow matching. RMG factorizes motion into several manifold factors, yielding a scale-free representation with intrinsic normalization, and uses geodesic interpolation, tangent-space supervision, and manifold-preserving ODE integration for training and sampling. On HumanML3D, RMG achieves state-of-the-art FID in the HumanML3D format (0.043) and ranks first on all reported metrics under the MotionStreamer format. On MotionMillion, it also surpasses strong baselines (FID 5.6, R@1 0.86). Ablations show that the compact $\mathscr{T}+\mathscr{R}$ (translation + rotations) representation is the most stable and effective, highlighting geometry-aware modeling as a practical and scalable route to high-fidelity motion generation.


Label Noise Cleaning for Supervised Classification via Bernoulli Random Sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Label noise - incorrect labels assigned to observations - can substantially degrade the performance of supervised classifiers. This paper proposes a label noise cleaning method based on Bernoulli random sampling. We show that the mean label noise levels of subsets generated by Bernoulli random sampling containing a given observation are identically distributed for all clean observations, and identically distributed, with a different distribution, for all noisy observations. Although the mean label noise levels are not independent across observations, by introducing an independent coupling we further prove that they converge to a mixture of two well-separated distributions corresponding to clean and noisy observations. By establishing a linear model between cross-validated classification errors and label noise levels, we are able to approximate this mixture distribution and thereby separate clean and noisy observations without any prior label information. The proposed method is classifier-agnostic, theoretically justified, and demonstrates strong performance on both simulated and real datasets.


DOS: Dependency-Oriented Sampler for Masked Diffusion Language Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) have recently emerged as a new paradigm in language modeling, offering flexible generation dynamics and enabling efficient parallel decoding. However, existing decoding strategies for pre-trained MDLMs predominantly rely on token-level uncertainty criteria, while largely overlooking sequence-level information and inter-token dependencies. To address this limitation, we propose Dependency-Oriented Sampler (DOS), a training-free decoding strategy that leverages inter-token dependencies to inform token updates during generation. Specifically, DOS exploits attention matrices from transformer blocks to approximate inter-token dependencies, emphasizing information from unmasked tokens when updating masked positions. Empirical results demonstrate that DOS consistently achieves superior performance on both code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks. Moreover, DOS can be seamlessly integrated with existing parallel sampling methods, leading to improved generation efficiency without sacrificing generation quality.


An Interpretable and Stable Framework for Sparse Principal Component Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) addresses the poor interpretability and variable redundancy often encountered by principal component analysis (PCA) in high-dimensional data. However, SPCA typically imposes uniform penalties on variables and does not account for differences in variable importance, which may lead to unstable performance in highly noisy or structurally complex settings. We propose SP-SPCA, a method that introduces a single equilibrium parameter into the regularization framework to adaptively adjust variable penalties. This modification of the L2 penalty provides flexible control over the trade-off between sparsity and explained variance while maintaining computational efficiency. Simulation studies show that the proposed method consistently outperforms standard sparse principal component methods in identifying sparse loading patterns, filtering noise variables, and preserving cumulative variance, especially in high-dimensional and noisy settings. Empirical applications to crime and financial market data further demonstrate its practical utility. In real data analyses, the method selects fewer but more relevant variables, thereby reducing model complexity while maintaining explanatory power. Overall, the proposed approach offers a robust and efficient alternative for sparse modeling in complex high-dimensional data, with clear advantages in stability, feature selection, and interpretability


A Hybrid Tsallis-Polarization Impurity Measure for Decision Trees: Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evaluation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce the Integrated Tsallis Combination (ITC), a hybrid impurity measure for decision tree learning that combines normalized Tsallis entropy with an exponential polarization component. While many existing measures sacrifice theoretical soundness for computational efficiency or vice versa, ITC provides a mathematically principled framework that balances both aspects. The core innovation lies in the complementarity between Tsallis entropy's information-theoretic foundations and the polarization component's sensitivity to distributional asymmetry. We establish key theoretical properties-concavity under explicit parameter conditions, proper boundary conditions, and connections to classical measures-and provide a rigorous justification for the hybridization strategy. Through an extensive comparative evaluation on seven benchmark datasets comparing 23 impurity measures with five-fold repetition, we show that simple parametric measures (Tsallis $α=0.5$) achieve the highest average accuracy ($91.17\%$), while ITC variants yield competitive results ($88.38-89.16\%$) with strong theoretical guarantees. Statistical analysis (Friedman test: $χ^2=3.89$, $p=0.692$) reveals no significant global differences among top performers, indicating practical equivalence for many applications. ITC's value resides in its solid theoretical grounding-proven concavity under suitable conditions, flexible parameterization ($α$, $β$, $γ$), and computational efficiency $O(K)$-making it a rigorous, generalizable alternative when theoretical guarantees are paramount. We provide guidelines for measure selection based on application priorities and release an open-source implementation to foster reproducibility and further research.


Scorio.jl: A Julia package for ranking stochastic responses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Scorio.jl is a Julia package for evaluating and ranking systems from repeated responses to shared tasks. It provides a common tensor-based interface for direct score-based, pairwise, psychometric, voting, graph, and listwise methods, so the same benchmark can be analyzed under multiple ranking assumptions. We describe the package design, position it relative to existing Julia tools, and report pilot experiments on synthetic rank recovery, stability under limited trials, and runtime scaling.


Active Seriation: Efficient Ordering Recovery with Statistical Guarantees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Active seriation aims at recovering an unknown ordering of $n$ items by adaptively querying pairwise similarities. The observations are noisy measurements of entries of an underlying $n$ x $n$ permuted Robinson matrix, whose permutation encodes the latent ordering. The framework allows the algorithm to start with partial information on the latent ordering, including seriation from scratch as a special case. We propose an active seriation algorithm that provably recovers the latent ordering with high probability. Under a uniform separation condition on the similarity matrix, optimal performance guarantees are established, both in terms of the probability of error and the number of observations required for successful recovery.


Unbiased and Biased Variance-Reduced Forward-Reflected-Backward Splitting Methods for Stochastic Composite Inclusions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper develops new variance-reduction techniques for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method to solve a class of possibly nonmonotone stochastic composite inclusions. Unlike unbiased estimators such as mini-batching, developing stochastic biased variants faces a fundamental technical challenge and has not been utilized before for inclusions and fixed-point problems. We fill this gap by designing a new framework that can handle both unbiased and biased estimators. Our main idea is to construct stochastic variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction and use them to perform iterate updates. First, we propose a class of unbiased variance-reduced estimators and show that increasing mini-batch SGD, loopless-SVRG, and SAGA estimators fall within this class. For these unbiased estimators, we establish a $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ best-iterate convergence rate for the expected squared residual norm, together with almost-sure convergence of the iterate sequence to a solution. Consequently, we prove that the best oracle complexities for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings are $\mathcal{O}(n^{2/3}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-10/3})$, respectively, when employing loopless-SVRG or SAGA, where $ε$ is a desired accuracy. Second, we introduce a new class of biased variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction, which includes SARAH, Hybrid SGD, and Hybrid SVRG as special instances. While the convergence rates remain valid for these biased estimators, the resulting oracle complexities are $\mathcal{O}(n^{3/4}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-5})$ for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings, respectively. Finally, we conduct two numerical experiments on AUC optimization for imbalanced classification and policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.


Locally Linear Continual Learning for Time Series based on VC-Theoretical Generalization Bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most machine learning methods assume fixed probability distributions, limiting their applicability in nonstationary real-world scenarios. While continual learning methods address this issue, current approaches often rely on black-box models or require extensive user intervention for interpretability. We propose SyMPLER (Systems Modeling through Piecewise Linear Evolving Regression), an explainable model for time series forecasting in nonstationary environments based on dynamic piecewise-linear approximations. Unlike other locally linear models, SyMPLER uses generalization bounds from Statistical Learning Theory to automatically determine when to add new local models based on prediction errors, eliminating the need for explicit clustering of the data. Experiments show that SyMPLER can achieve comparable performance to both black-box and existing explainable models while maintaining a human-interpretable structure that reveals insights about the system's behavior. In this sense, our approach conciliates accuracy and interpretability, offering a transparent and adaptive solution for forecasting nonstationary time series.