Classical Monte Carlo methods for pricing catastrophe insurance tail risk converge at order reciprocal root N, requiring large simulation budgets to resolve upper-tail percentiles of the loss distribution. This sample-sparsity problem can lead to AI models trained on impoverished tail data, producing poorly calibrated risk estimates where insolvency risk is greatest. Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE), following Montanaro, achieves convergence approaching order reciprocal N in oracle queries - a quadratic speedup that, at scale, would enable high-resolution tail estimation within practical budgets. We validate this advantage empirically using a Qiskit Aer simulator with genuine Grover amplification. A complete pipeline encodes fitted lognormal catastrophe distributions into quantum oracles via amplitude encoding, producing small readout probabilities that enable safe Grover amplification with up to k=16 iterations. Seven experiments on synthetic and real (NOAA Storm Events, 58,028 records) data yield three main findings: an oracle-model advantage, that strong classical baselines win when analytical access is available, and that discretisation, not estimation, is the current bottleneck.

We study mean estimation for a Gaussian distribution with identity covariance in $\mathbb{R}^d$ under a missing data scheme termed realizable $ε$-contamination model. In this model an adversary can choose a function $r(x)$ between 0 and $ε$ and each sample $x$ goes missing with probability $r(x)$. Recent work Ma et al., 2024 proposed this model as an intermediate-strength setting between Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) -- where missingness is independent of the data -- and Missing Not At Random (MNAR) -- where missingness may depend arbitrarily on the sample values and can lead to non-identifiability issues. That work established information-theoretic upper and lower bounds for mean estimation in the realizable contamination model. Their proposed estimators incur runtime exponential in the dimension, leaving open the possibility of computationally efficient algorithms in high dimensions. In this work, we establish an information-computation gap in the Statistical Query model (and, as a corollary, for Low-Degree Polynomials and PTF tests), showing that algorithms must either use substantially more samples than information-theoretically necessary or incur exponential runtime. We complement our SQ lower bound with an algorithm whose sample-time tradeoff nearly matches our lower bound. Together, these results qualitatively characterize the complexity of Gaussian mean estimation under $ε$-realizable contamination.

We present a theoretical framework that reinterprets Population Annealing (PA) through the lens of the discrete-time Schrödinger Bridge (SB) problem. We demonstrate that the heuristic reweighting step in PA is derived by analytically solving the Schrödinger system without iterative computation via instantaneous projection. In addition, we identify the thermodynamic work as the optimal control potential that solves the global variational problem on path space. This perspective unifies non-equilibrium thermodynamics with the geometric framework of optimal transport, interpreting the Jarzynski equality as a consistency condition within the Donsker-Varadhan variational principle, and elucidates the thermodynamic optimality of PA.

Transformers owe much of their empirical success in natural language processing to the self-attention blocks. Recent perspectives interpret attention blocks as interacting particle systems, whose mean-field limits correspond to gradient flows of interaction energy functionals on probability density spaces equipped with Wasserstein-$2$-type metrics. We extend this viewpoint by introducing accelerated attention blocks derived from inertial Nesterov-type dynamics on density spaces. In our proposed architecture, tokens carry both spatial (feature) and velocity variables. The time discretization and the approximation of accelerated density dynamics yield Hamiltonian momentum attention blocks, which constitute the proposed accelerated attention architectures. In particular, for linear self-attention, we show that the attention blocks approximate a Stein variational gradient flow, using a bilinear kernel, of a potential energy. In this setting, we prove that elliptically contoured probability distributions are preserved by the accelerated attention blocks. We present implementable particle-based algorithms and demonstrate that the proposed accelerated attention blocks converge faster than the classical attention blocks while preserving the number of oracle calls.

Modern large language models (LLMs) excel at tasks that require storing and retrieving knowledge, such as factual recall and question answering. Transformers are central to this capability because they can encode information during training and retrieve it at inference. Existing theoretical analyses typically study transformers under idealized assumptions such as infinite data or orthogonal embeddings. In realistic settings, however, models are trained on finite datasets with non-orthogonal (random) embeddings. We address this gap by analyzing a single-layer transformer with random embeddings trained with (empirical) gradient descent on a simple token-retrieval task, where the model must identify an informative token within a length-$L$ sequence and learn a one-to-one mapping from tokens to labels. Our analysis tracks the ``early phase'' of gradient descent and yields explicit formulas for the model's storage capacity -- revealing a multiplicative dependence between sample size $N$, embedding dimension $d$, and sequence length $L$. We validate these scalings numerically and further complement them with a lower bound for the underlying statistical problem, demonstrating that this multiplicative scaling is intrinsic under non-orthogonal embeddings.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool for generating high-quality images from textual descriptions. Despite their successes, these models often exhibit limited diversity in the sampled images, particularly when sampling with a high classifier-free guidance weight. To address this issue, we present Kaleido, a novel approach that enhances the diversity of samples by incorporating autoregressive latent priors. Kaleido integrates an autoregressive language model that encodes the original caption and generates latent variables, serving as abstract and intermediary representations for guiding and facilitating the image generation process.In this paper, we explore a variety of discrete latent representations, including textual descriptions, detection bounding boxes, object blobs, and visual tokens. These representations diversify and enrich the input conditions to the diffusion models, enabling more diverse outputs.Our experimental results demonstrate that Kaleido effectively broadens the diversity of the generated image samples from a given textual description while maintaining high image quality. Furthermore, we show that Kaleido adheres closely to the guidance provided by the generated latent variables, demonstrating its capability to effectively control and direct the image generation process.

Subset selection tasks, such as anomaly detection and compound selection in AI-assisted drug discovery, are crucial for a wide range of applications. Learning subset-valued functions with neural networks has achieved great success by incorporating permutation invariance symmetry into the architecture. However, existing neural set architectures often struggle to either capture comprehensive information from the superset or address complex interactions within the input. Additionally, they often fail to perform in scenarios where superset sizes surpass available memory capacity. To address these challenges, we introduce the novel concept of the Identity Property, which requires models to integrate information from the originating set, resulting in the development of neural networks that excel at performing effective subset selection from large supersets. Moreover, we present the Hierarchical Representation of Neural Subset Selection (HORSE), an attention-based method that learns complex interactions and retains information from both the input set and the optimal subset supervision signal. Specifically, HORSE enables the partitioning of the input ground set into manageable chunks that can be processed independently and then aggregated, ensuring consistent outcomes across different partitions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that HORSE significantly enhances neural subset selection performance by capturing more complex information and surpasses state-of-the-art methods in handling large-scale inputs by a margin of up to 20%.

We present a novel set of rigorous and computationally efficient topology-based complexity notions that exhibit a strong correlation with the generalization gap in modern deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs show remarkable generalization properties, yet the source of these capabilities remains elusive, defying the established statistical learning theory. Recent studies have revealed that properties of training trajectories can be indicative of generalization. Building on this insight, state-of-the-art methods have leveraged the topology of these trajectories, particularly their fractal dimension, to quantify generalization. Most existing works compute this quantity by assuming continuous-or infinite-time training dynamics, complicating the development of practical estimators capable of accurately predicting generalization without access to test data.

Domain generalization (DG) is a fundamental yet challenging topic in machine learning. Recently, the remarkable zero-shot capabilities of the large pre-trained vision-language model (e.g., CLIP) have made it popular for various downstream tasks. However, the effectiveness of this capacity often degrades when there are shifts in data distribution during testing compared to the training data. In this paper, we propose a novel method, known as CLIPCEIL, a model that utilizes Channel rEfinement and Image-text aLignment to facilitate the CLIP to the inaccessible $\textit{out-of-distribution}$ test datasets that exhibit domain shifts. Specifically, we refine the feature channels in the visual domain to ensure they contain domain-invariant and class-relevant features by using a lightweight adapter. This is achieved by minimizing the inter-domain variance while maximizing the inter-class variance. In the meantime, we ensure the image-text alignment by aligning text embeddings of the class descriptions and their corresponding image embedding while further removing the domain-specific features. Moreover, our model integrates multi-scale CLIP features by utilizing a self-attention fusion module, technically implemented through one Transformer layer. Extensive experiments on five widely used benchmark datasets demonstrate that CLIPCEIL outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods.

Computing Jacobians with automatic differentiation is ubiquitous in many scientific domains such as machine learning, computational fluid dynamics, robotics and finance. Even small savings in the number of computations or memory usage in Jacobian computations can already incur massive savings in energy consumption and runtime. While there exist many methods that allow for such savings, they generally trade computational efficiency for approximations of the exact Jacobian.In this paper, we present a novel method to optimize the number of necessary multiplications for Jacobian computation by leveraging deep reinforcement learning (RL) and a concept called cross-country elimination while still computing the exact Jacobian. Cross-country elimination is a framework for automatic differentiation that phrases Jacobian accumulation as ordered elimination of all vertices on the computational graph where every elimination incurs a certain computational cost.Finding the optimal elimination order that minimizes the number of necessary multiplications can be seen as a single player game which in our case is played by an RL agent.We demonstrate that this method achieves up to 33% improvements over state-of-the-art methods on several relevant tasks taken from relevant domains.Furthermore, we show that these theoretical gains translate into actual runtime improvements by providing a cross-country elimination interpreter in JAX that can execute the obtained elimination orders.