When approximating an intractable density via variational inference (VI) the variational family is typically chosen as a simple parametric family that very likely does not contain the target. This raises the question: Under which conditions can we recover characteristics of the target despite misspecification? In this work, we extend previous results on robust VI with location-scale families under target symmetries. We derive sufficient conditions guaranteeing exact recovery of the mean when using the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and $α$-divergences. We further show how and why optimization can fail to recover the target mean in the absence of our sufficient conditions, providing initial guidelines on the choice of the variational family and $α$-value.

We study semisupervised mean estimation with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and a black-box prediction model whose output may be miscalibrated. A standard approach in this setting is augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) [Robins et al., 1994], which protects against prediction-model misspecification but can be inefficient when the prediction score is poorly aligned with the outcome scale. We introduce Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference, which post-hoc calibrates the prediction score on the labeled sample before using it for semisupervised estimation. This simple step requires no retraining and can improve the original score both as a predictor of the outcome and as a regression adjustment for semisupervised inference. We study both linear and isotonic calibration. For isotonic calibration, we establish first-order optimality guarantees: isotonic post-processing can improve predictive accuracy and estimator efficiency relative to the original score and simpler post-processing rules, while no further post-processing of the fitted isotonic score yields additional first-order gains. For linear calibration, we show first-order equivalence to PPI++. We also clarify the relationship among existing estimators, showing that the original PPI estimator is a special case of AIPW and can be inefficient when the prediction model is accurate, while PPI++ is AIPW with empirical efficiency maximization [Rubin et al., 2008]. In simulations and real-data experiments, our calibrated estimators often outperform PPI and are competitive with, or outperform, AIPW and PPI++. We provide an accompanying Python package, ppi_aipw, at https://larsvanderlaan.github.io/ppi-aipw/.

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model using data-driven emulators, including neural operator architectures. For chaotic systems, the inherent sensitivity to initial conditions makes exact long-term forecasts theoretically infeasible, meaning that traditional squared-error losses often fail when trained on noisy data. Recent work has focused on training emulators to match the statistical properties of chaotic attractors by introducing regularization based on handcrafted local features and summary statistics, as well as learned statistics extracted from a diverse dataset of trajectories. In this work, we propose a family of adversarial optimal transport objectives that jointly learn high-quality summary statistics and a physically consistent emulator. We theoretically analyze and experimentally validate a Sinkhorn divergence formulation (2-Wasserstein) and a WGAN-style dual formulation (1-Wasserstein). Our experiments across a variety of chaotic systems, including systems with high-dimensional chaotic attractors, show that emulators trained with our approach exhibit significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.

Most voters see AI as a threat to privacy and jobs, according to a new poll. Overall, 54% hold an unfavorable view of artificial intelligence, with concerns spanning both parties.

The kraken-like apex predators were smart, too. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The fossils prove octopuses existed at least 5 million years earlier than originally thought. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Around 100 million years ago, real kraken-like creatures stalked Earth's prehistoric oceans.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

New research into their musculature solves an over 100-year-old anatomical mystery. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Some pretty tough muscles lay beneath the macaroni penguin's () somewhat goofy exterior. These small penguins from the islands and waters of the South Atlantic Ocean are known for their distinctive bright-yellow plumes .

Science Space Deep Space Fastest comet ever recorded spewed 70 Olympic pools' worth of water daily More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. A new study of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS led by the University of Michigan shows that its water has a remarkably high content of deuterium. This form of hydrogen is comparatively less abundant in our solar system, enabling researchers to glean new insights about other planetary processes at work in our galaxy. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Astronomers knew 3I/ATLAS wasn't a local comet not long after first spotting it in July 2025 .

CS 153 has gone viral on the Palo Alto campus--and on X. Not everyone is happy about it. As thousands of influencers descended on southern California earlier this month for the annual Coachella Music Festival, a very Silicon Valley program dubbed "AI Coachella" was taking shape a few hundred miles north in Palo Alto. The class, CS 153, is one of Stanford's buzziest offerings this semester, and like the music festival, it features a star-studded lineup of celebrities--in this case, not pop artists, but Big Tech CEOs. The course is co-taught by Anjney Midha, a former Andreessen Horowitz general partner, and Michael Abbott, Apple's former VP of engineering for cloud services.

We explore the top-K rank aggregation problem in which one aims to recover a consistent ordering that focuses on top-K ranked items based on partially revealed preference information. We examine an M-wise comparison model that builds on the Plackett-Luce (PL) model where for each sample, M items are ranked according to their perceived utilities modeled as noisy observations of their underlying true utilities. As our result, we characterize the minimax optimality on the sample size for top-K ranking. The optimal sample size turns out to be inversely proportional to M. We devise an algorithm that effectively converts M-wise samples into pairwise ones and employs a spectral method using the refined data. In demonstrating its optimality, we develop a novel technique for deriving tight $\ell_\infty$ estimation error bounds, which is key to accurately analyzing the performance of top-K ranking algorithms, but has been challenging. Recent work relied on an additional maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) stage merged with a spectral method to attain good estimates in $\ell_\infty$ error to achieve the limit for the pairwise model. In contrast, although it is valid in slightly restricted regimes, our result demonstrates a spectral method alone to be sufficient for the general M-wise model. We run numerical experiments using synthetic data and confirm that the optimal sample size decreases at the rate of 1/M. Moreover, running our algorithm on real-world data, we find that its applicability extends to settings that may not fit the PL model.