Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Quantum many-body physics simulation has important impacts on understanding fundamental science and has applications to quantum materials design and quantum technology. However, due to the exponentially growing size of the Hilbert space with respect to the particle number, a direct simulation is intractable. While representing quantum states with tensor networks and neural networks are the two state-of-the-art methods for approximate simulations, each has its own limitations in terms of expressivity and inductive bias. To address these challenges, we develop a novel architecture, Autoregressive Neural TensorNet (ANTN), which bridges tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks. We show that Autoregressive Neural TensorNet parameterizes normalized wavefunctions, allows for exact sampling, generalizes the expressivity of tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks, and inherits a variety of symmetries from autoregressive neural networks. We demonstrate our approach on quantum state learning as well as finding the ground state of the challenging 2DJ1-J2 Heisenberg model with different systems sizes and coupling parameters, outperforming both tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks. Our work opens up new opportunities for quantum many-body physics simulation, quantum technology design, and generative modeling in artificial intelligence.

Addressing decision-making problems using sequence modeling to predict future trajectories shows promising results in recent years. In this paper, we take a step further to leverage the sequence predictive method in wider areas such as long-term planning, vision-based control, and multi-task decision-making. To this end, we propose a method to utilize a diffusion-based generative sequence model to plan a series of milestones in a latent space and to have an agent to follow the milestones to accomplish a given task. The proposed method can learn control-relevant, low-dimensional latent representations of milestones, which makes it possible to efficiently perform long-term planning and vision-based control. Furthermore, our approach exploits generation flexibility of the diffusion model, which makes it possible to plan diverse trajectories for multi-task decision-making. We demonstrate the proposed method across offline reinforcement learning (RL) benchmarks and an visual manipulation environment. The results show that our approach outperforms offline RL methods in solving long-horizon, sparse-reward tasks and multi-task problems, while also achieving the state-of-the-art performance on the most challenging vision-based manipulation benchmark.

Membership inference attacks are designed to determine, using black box access to trained models, whether a particular example was used in training or not. Membership inference can be formalized as a hypothesis testing problem. The most effective existing attacks estimate the distribution of some test statistic (usually the model's confidence on the true label) on points that were (and were not) used in training by training many shadow models--i.e.

A machine learning model is traditionally considered robust if its prediction remains (almost) constant under input perturbations with small norm. However, real-world tasks like molecular property prediction or point cloud segmentation have inherent equivariances, such as rotation or permutation equivariance. In such tasks, even perturbations with large norm do not necessarily change an input's semantic content. Furthermore, there are perturbations for which a model's prediction explicitly needs to change. For the first time, we propose a sound notion of adversarial robustness that accounts for task equivariance.

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard procedures. For the general case without a perfect expert, we prove best-of-both-worlds guarantees, demonstrating that the proposed forecasting algorithm always queries sufficiently many labels in the worst case to obtain optimal regret guarantees, while simultaneously querying much fewer labels in more benign settings. Specifically, for a scenario where one expert is strictly better than the others in expectation, we show that the label complexity of the label-efficient forecaster is roughly upperbounded by the square root of the number of rounds. Finally, we present numerical experiments empirically showing that the normalized regret of the label-efficient forecaster can asymptotically match known minimax rates for pool-based active learning, suggesting it can optimally adapt to benign settings.