Despite rapid recent advances in quantum machine learning, the field is in many ways stuck. Existing approaches can exhibit serious limitations, and we still lack learning frameworks that are simple, interpretable, scalable, and naturally suited to quantum data. To address this, here we introduce quantum Gaussian processes, a Bayesian framework for learning from quantum systems through priors over unknown quantum transformations. We show that, under suitable conditions, unitary quantum stochastic processes define Gaussian processes, thereby enabling regression, classification, and Bayesian optimization directly on quantum data. The key ingredient in this framework is sufficient knowledge of a quantum process's structure and symmetries to define an informative prior through its corresponding quantum kernel, effectively injecting a strong, physics-informed inductive bias into the learning model. We then prove that matchgate, or free-fermionic, evolutions give rise to provable and scalable quantum Gaussian processes, providing the first family in our framework where the unknown unitary acts non-trivially on all qubits. Finally, we demonstrate accurate long-range extrapolation, phase-diagram learning in many-body systems, and sample-efficient Bayesian optimization in a quantum sensing task. Our results identify quantum Gaussian processes as a promising route toward simpler and more structured forms of quantum learning.

Generative models for time-series imputation achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, yet provide no finite-sample reliability guarantees, a critical limitation in power systems where imputed values inform dispatch and planning. We introduce SPLICE (Self-supervised Predictive Latent Inpainting with Conformal Envelopes), a modular framework coupling latent generative imputation with distribution-free, online-adaptive prediction intervals. A JEPA encoder maps daily load segments into a 64-dimensional latent space; a conditional latent bridge with four sampling modes generates candidate gap trajectories; an hourly-conditioned decoder maps back to signal space; and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) wraps the output with coverage-guaranteed prediction bands. The flow-matching variant achieves comparable quality to DDIM in 5--10 ODE steps (5-10x speedup). On thirteen load datasets (nine proprietary, three UCI Electricity, ETTh1), SPLICE achieves the lowest mean Load-only MSE (0.056), winning 9/12 non-degenerate datasets at 91-day gaps and 18/32 across all gap lengths vs. five established baselines, and produces the best CRPS (0.161, -18.3% vs. the strongest competitor). ACI delivers 93--95% empirical coverage, correcting under-coverage failures of up to 7.5 pp observed with static conformal prediction. A pooled JEPA encoder trained on nine feeds transfers to four unseen domains, matching or exceeding per-dataset oracles with only a quick bridge fine-tuning.

In this paper, we study norm-based regularization methods for neural networks. We compare existing penalization approaches and introduce two regularization strategies that extend classical ridge- and lasso-type penalties to neural network models. The first strategy modifies weight decay by incorporating the covariance structure of the input features into a ridge-type $\ell_2$ penalty, allowing regularization to account for feature dependence. The second combines an $\ell_1$ sparsity penalty with covariance-aware $\ell_2$ regularization, producing neural network weights that are both sparse and structurally informed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate these methods under different data-generating settings, followed by two real-data applications on building cooling-load prediction and leukemia cell-type classification from high-dimensional gene expression data. Across simulated and real-data examples, the proposed regularizers improve predictive performance on unseen data and provide more effective complexity control than standard norm-based penalties, particularly when features are correlated or high-dimensional.

Double-machine-learning pipelines for the Average Dose-Response Function rely on kernel-weighted local-linear smoothers, which inherit unbounded functional influence: a single outlier within a kernel window biases the curve across the entire window. We introduce SHIFT (Self-calibrated Heavy-tail Inlier-Fit with Tempering), a robust DML estimator combining cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization with a kernel-local Welsch-loss second stage optimized by Graduated Non-Convexity, and -- the principal design choice -- a defensive OLS refit whose inlier cutoff is scaled by post-GNC residual MAD rather than the raw-outcome MAD. On a localized-contamination stress test at $p=0.25$ this design choice drops level-RMSE from 1.03 to 0.33 while leaving clean and uniformly-contaminated runs unchanged. Across 1,400 main-sweep fits, SHIFT has competitive worst-case shape recovery (RMSE $0.325$ at $p=0.25$, second to Huber-DML's $0.276$); among the three methods with worst-case RMSE below $0.35$, only SHIFT emits a non-uniform per-sample weight vector, recovering the ground-truth outlier mask at mean $F_1 \approx 0.96$ (range $0.945$--$0.968$) on Gaussian-jump DGPs. We pair the estimator with a six-technique Extreme Value Theory diagnostic suite (Hill, GPD-MLE/PWM, GEV, Mean Excess, parameter stability, causal tail coefficient) that lets a practitioner distinguish Frechet from Weibull regimes and choose between SHIFT and L1 alternatives on empirical grounds. Extensions to binary-treatment CATE (Huber pseudo-outcome X-Learner) and time-series ADRF (block-CV + rolling MAD) are included. A counter-intuitive ablation: linear nuisance models (Ridge, Lasso) outperform gradient-boosted nuisances for robust DML under uniform contamination, inverting the usual more-flexible-is-better heuristic.

Many machine learning systems make constrained decisions by optimizing factorized objectives, but the context-specific objective is often treated as fixed. We study contextual decision-weight learning: from logged decisions and proxy outputs, learn an optimizer-facing weight vector w(x) over interpretable decision factors z(x,d), rather than a direct policy or generic predictive score. We propose OTSS, an output-targeted soft-segmentation model that deploys the personalized decision-ready weight vector. At the function-class level, the theory highlights a hard-versus-soft distinction. Hard partitions incur an approximation-estimation tradeoff under overlap, while a realizable fixed-K soft class removes the hard-partition approximation floor and attains a parametric rate. We evaluate OTSS in controlled benchmarks with finite evaluation libraries, where the true weight vector and downstream regret can be computed exactly. In the representative overlap setting, OTSS attains the lowest mean regret among the comparators, including EM mixture regression, the strongest soft-mixture baseline in our comparison; it matches EM on coefficient recovery while running about two orders of magnitude faster. In a matched K=5 benchmark, OTSS remains competitive under hard-routed truth and improves as heterogeneity becomes softer and sample size grows. On a fixed Complete Journey retail anchor with real household covariates and action geometry, OTSS again achieves the lowest mean-regret point estimate.

ABSTRACT We study the problem of training diffusion and flow generative models to sample from target distributions defined by an exponential tilting of a base density; a formulation that subsumes both sampling from unnormalized densities and reward fine-tuning of pre-trained models. This problem can be approached from a stochastic optimal control (SOC) perspective, using adjoint-based or score matching methods, or from a non-equilibrium thermodynamics perspective. We provide a unified framework encompassing these approaches and make three main contributions: (i) bias-variance decompositions revealing that Adjoint Matching/Sampling and Novel Score Matching have finite gradient variance, while Target and Conditional Score Matching do not; (ii) norm bounds on the lean adjoint ODE that theoretically support the effectiveness of adjoint-based methods; and (iii) adaptations of the CMCD and NETS loss functions, along with novel Crooks and Jarzynski identities, to the exponential tilting setting. We validate our analysis with reward fine-tuning experiments on Stable Diffusion 1.5 and 3. 1 INTRODUCTION Recent advances in generative modeling have demonstrated the effectiveness of diffusion and flow matching models for learning complex data distributions (Song et al., 2021; Ho et al., 2020; Lipman et al., 2022; Albergo et al., 2023; Liu et al., 2023). In many applications, however, it is desirable to tailor the generative process to favor certain qualities, either by sampling from an unnormalized target distribution or by fine-tuning a pre-trained model with a reward function (Uehara et al., 2024; Domingo-Enrich et al., 2025; Zhang & Chen, 2022; Holdijk et al., 2023).

Standard diffusion models for graph generation typically rely on uniform time-stepping, an approach that overlooks the non-homogeneous dynamics of distributional evolution on complex manifolds. In this paper, we present an information-geometric framework that reinterprets the diffusion sampling trajectory as a parametric curve on a Riemannian manifold. Our key observation is that the Fisher-Rao metric provides a principled measure of the intrinsic distance. By analyzing this metric, we derive the Drift Variation Score (DVS), a geometry-aware indicator that quantifies the instantaneous rate of distributional change. Unlike prior heuristic-based adaptive samplers, our DVS solver enforces a constant informational speed on the statistical manifold, automatically maintaining a uniform rate of distributional change along the sampling trajectory. This equal arc-length strategy ensures that each discretization step contributes equally to the information speed. Theoretical analysis verifies that DVS characterizes the local stiffness of the sampling dynamics in the Fisher-Rao sense. Experimental results on molecule and social network generation show that DVS significantly improves structural fidelity and sampling efficiency. Code is at https://github.com/kunzhan/DVS

Dirac-Frenkel instantaneous residual minimization evolves nonlinear parametrizations of PDE solutions in time, but ill-conditioning can render the parameter dynamics non-unique. We interpret this non-uniqueness as a gauge freedom: nullspace directions that leave the time derivative unchanged can be used to select better-conditioned parameter velocities. Building on Onsager's minimum-dissipation principle, we introduce a history variable -- interpretable as momentum -- and inject it only along the nullspace directions. The resulting Dirac-Frenkel-Onsager dynamics preserve instantaneous residual minimization, in contrast to standard regularization that can introduce bias, while promoting temporally smooth parameter evolutions. Examples demonstrate that the approach leads to increased robustness in singular and near-singular regimes.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has achieved substantial gains in single-attempt accuracy (Pass@1) on reasoning tasks, yet often suffers from reduced multi-sample coverage (Pass@K), indicating diversity collapse. We identify a structural cause for this degradation: common RLVR objectives, such as GRPO, are indifferent to how probability mass is distributed among correct solutions. Combined with stochastic training dynamics, this indifference induces a self-reinforcing collapse, in which probability mass concentrates on a narrow subset of correct outputs while alternative valid solutions are suppressed. We formalize this collapse mechanism and further characterize the optimal policy structure under two complementary criteria: robustness and entropy-regularized optimality, which identify the Uniform-Correct Policy as uniquely optimal. Motivated by this analysis, we propose Uniform-Correct Policy Optimization (UCPO), a modification to GRPO that adds a conditional uniformity penalty on the policy's distribution over correct solutions. The penalty redistributes gradient signal toward underrepresented correct responses, encouraging uniform allocation of probability mass within the correct set. Across three models (1.5B-7B parameters) and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, UCPO improves Pass@K and diversity while maintaining competitive Pass@1, achieving up to +10\% absolute improvement on AIME24 at Pass@64 and up to 45\% higher equation-level diversity within the correct set. The code is available at https://github.com/AnamikaLochab/UCPO.

Causal graph discovery for space-time systems is challenging in high-dimensional gridded data, which often has many more grid cells than temporal observations per cell. The Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) meta-algorithm was developed to address that niche under space-time locality and stationarity assumptions, but it is currently limited to univariate analyses. In this work, we present M-CaStLe. M-CaStLe generalizes the local embedding and parent-identification phases of CaStLe to jointly model local within-variable and cross-variable space-time causal structures in gridded data. Like CaStLe, by constraining candidate parents to a constant-size space-time neighborhood and pooling spatial replicates, M-CaStLe increases effective sample size to make discovery tractable in high-dimensional settings. We further decompose the resulting multivariate stencil graph into reaction and spatial graphs to aid interpretation in complex settings. We study M-CaStLe in four settings: a multivariate space-time vector autoregression benchmark with known ground truth, an advective-diffusive-reaction partial differential equation verification problem with derived physical reference structure, an atmospheric chemistry case study in a low-temporal-sample regime, and an El Niño Southern Oscillation study on reanalysis data, identifying phase-dependent ocean--atmosphere coupling. Across these settings, M-CaStLe more accurately recovers multivariate causal structure in controlled settings and identifies important physical dynamics in real-world case studies. Overall, M-CaStLe advances causal discovery for multivariate space-time systems while retaining interpretability at the grid level.